Pat retweeted
On August 20 every year, Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell denoting the start of the climatologically most active portion of the Atlantic #hurricane season. Historically, ~90% of Atlantic major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes form after August 20th.
Pat retweeted
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast update from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Forecast increased from April due to low chance of #ElNino & warmer than normal tropical Atlantic:
tropical.colostate.edu/Forec…
Pat retweeted
The UK Met Office has issued its seasonal Atlantic #hurricane forecast and calls for an above-normal season. Most likely numbers are:
18 named storms
9 hurricanes
4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes
176 Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Pat retweeted
No models in the latest ENSO prediction plume call for #ElNino conditions for the peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear.
Pat retweeted
Average August-October sea surface temperature anomalies in CSU's six analog years for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season: 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2021. Analogs selected based on cool neutral ENSO/weak La Nina and near average to warm tropical Atlantic for August-October.
Pat retweeted
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for above-average season: 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of #ElNino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic
tropical.colostate.edu/Forec…
Join me at RLPSA 2022 Annual Conference! Find out more at rlpsa.swoogo.com/RLPSA2022
Pat retweeted
Starting July 28, Severe Thunderstorms deemed “destructive” will activate a Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) on smartphones. Criteria for a destructive threat is at least 2.75 inch diameter hail and/or 80 mph thunderstorm winds.
Read more: weather.gov/news/072221-svr-…
Pat retweeted
This morning's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook looks more like one I would expect to see in September than in June! National #Hurricane Center is currently monitoring 3 areas with a 70%, 60% and 20% chance of development in next 5 days.
Pat retweeted
Latest probabilistic ENSO forecast from NOAA continues to call for a very low chance of #ElNino (just 7%) for the peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear.
Pat retweeted
The subtropical Atlantic is much warmer than normal and tropical Atlantic is near average. The region with above-normal SSTs in Atlantic correlates fairly well with typical June SST pattern associated with above-normal #hurricane seasons.
Pat retweeted
19 hurricanes and 1 major #hurricane (Category 3 Audrey in 1957) have made landfall in the continental US in June on record (since 1851).
Thank you @AdamGlobalPhone. @EarlyAlertInc appreciates you organizing and we hope everyone who attended found much value and are more prepared for the upcoming Hurricane Season #Hurricane
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Pat retweeted
Much of eastern subtropical Atlantic is currently in moderate/strong marine heatwave. Warmer than normal April subtropical Atlantic typically correlates w/ more active Atlantic #hurricane season. Warmer subtropics->weaker subtropical high->weaker trades->warmer tropical Atlantic
Pat retweeted
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for above-average season: 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of #ElNino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic
tropical.colostate.edu/Forec…
