Defence & Geopolitics Analyst Personal analysis on wars, weapons, military technology & global security. Independent views. No hype, just analysis.

Joined February 2021
JUST IN: 🇬🇧 British intelligence believes Vladimir Putin could face an assassination attempt from within the Russian military soon. A shocking warning that raises questions about growing threats from inside Putin’s own system.
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⚡ 🇮🇷🇷🇺🇶🇦 Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Moscow tomorrow. Will the Russia-US deal affect Moscow’s intelligence sharing and defence-related support for Iran, potentially weakening Tehran’s military capabilities?
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⚡🇷🇸🇺🇦 Ukraine could lose an important indirect source of weapons supplies if Serbia's Student List movement follows through on its pledge to stop arms exports to conflict zones. According to Reuters, the movement wants to prevent Serbian weapons from reaching battlefields through Western intermediaries that subsequently ship them to Ukraine. It has also rejected claims that it intends to impose sanctions on Russia. If implemented, the policy could disrupt another supply route for Kyiv at a time when ammunition and military equipment remain critical to its war effort.
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⚡🇬🇧🇺🇸🇺🇦 Four EU countries, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia and Bulgaria, have refused to guarantee a proposed €45 billion European loan to Ukraine, according to Welt. Ukraine could need another €70 billion in 2027, with Canada, Japan and other partners expected to cover around €25 billion. The EU is also considering frozen Russian assets for repayment, but no firm guarantees exist. Europe wants to sustain Ukraine’s war effort, but growing divisions over who pays the bill are exposing the limits of EU unity.
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⚡ Will Iran be attacked before Israel votes?
40%Yes,strike is imminent
60%No, attack will come aftr
178 votes • 22 hours
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⚡ 🇬🇧 Britain’s Storm Shadow missiles have delivered significant damage to Russian military targets, proving the value of London’s willingness to take strategic risks in support of Ukraine. Germany had Taurus missiles, but lacked Britain’s resolve. The UK has repeatedly stepped up when Europe faced difficult moments. Which European country do you think has done the most to support Ukraine when it mattered most?
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⚡ Israeli officials are pushing for strikes on Iran before elections, but Washington has reportedly rejected the proposals so far. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has reportedly spent tens of millions of dollars over the past three months preparing for a renewed war with Israel if the US strikes Iran.
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⚡ Putin reportedly wants NATO pushed back to its 1997 position as part of Ukraine peace talks, potentially demanding the withdrawal of allied forces from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland, according to The Telegraph. Moscow is not just seeking a deal over Ukraine. It wants to reshape Europe’s entire security order.
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⚡ 🇷🇺 Kremlin: Russia-US-Ukraine peace talks will not halt military operations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will continue large-scale strikes against Ukraine’s military-industrial complex and military-related targets. He warned that publicly discussing potential peace terms could undermine negotiations. Other key statements from Peskov: ▫️ Moscow hopes Ukraine will respect the humanitarian ceasefire in Alyoshki, Kherson region. ▫️ The Alyoshki ceasefire mechanism could serve as a model for similar agreements elsewhere along the front. ▫️ Russia hopes Serbia’s new leadership will maintain constructive ties with Moscow and praised Aleksandar Vučić’s contribution to bilateral relations. ▫️ Putin congratulated Lula da Silva on his reelection as Brazil’s president. ▫️ Putin will hold numerous bilateral meetings during the four-day Russia-Africa summit. ▫️ The Kremlin welcomed Moscow’s selection to host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships and called for Russia’s full return to international sports. ▫️ Hosting another Olympic Games in Russia is not currently being considered.
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⚡ The Storm Shadow missiles supplied by the UK last week are already being put to use, striking Russia’s Proton plant in Oryol and Energia plant in Yelets, both linked to missile component production. These strikes could disrupt Russian missile production, but Moscow may retaliate directly against UK military assets or facilities. How far is Britain willing to go in this escalation?
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⚡ Netanyahu is reportedly pushing for a strike on Iran before Tuesday’s elections, but Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir is resisting, demanding clear evidence and justification for restarting the war. Is Israel heading toward another war with Iran without a clear strategy for what comes next?
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⚡ European gas prices surge to €97, reaching their highest level in four years. Rising energy costs could put further pressure on European industries and households. How long can Europe sustain this?
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⚡ 🇧🇷 Massive crowds are celebrating across Brazil following Lula’s victory over Bolsonaro, whom his opponents accused of being backed by foreign interests. The Brazilian people have made their choice, and Lula’s supporters are taking to the streets to celebrate their victory.
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⚡ Iran has moved additional anti-ship missile launchers and drone launch positions along its coastline this month, as the Strait of Hormuz experiences one of its deadliest months for shipping.
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⚡🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelenskyy says Ukraine is ready to discuss territorial exchanges with Putin when peace talks resume in November. Russia continues to demand Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donbas as a condition for a ceasefire. Is Ukraine prepared to trade land for peace, or will this remain Putin’s biggest obstacle to a deal?
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⚡ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelenskyy is ready to stop fighting along the current front line but refuses to recognize Russian-occupied territories as Russian. Getting back the 25% of Ukrainian territory under Russian control looks almost impossible through negotiations alone. Do you think Ukraine can ever get those territories back?
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⚡🇺🇸 Why is the U.S. military sending more amphibious assault ships to the Middle East if a ground invasion is not being considered?
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⚡🇷🇺🇺🇸 The US risks losing the trust of its closest allies in Europe, a market of 450 million people and an economy worth nearly $20 trillion, just to make deals with Russia, whose economy is much smaller. Is Washington putting deals with Putin ahead of its friendship with Europe? This could create a serious divide between the US and its European allies.
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⚡ 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says there will be no strikes on Iran today.
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🇺🇸🇩🇪🇮🇷 Iran has warned Germany that any German military bases or facilities across the region could become legitimate targets if Berlin directly joins military action against Iran.
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