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2/2 ...VCs now write those sorts of checks, keeping companies private for longer. Separately, Musk himself has had trouble valuing $TSLA. His take-private bid was cheap, but he also declined to buy back shares in late 2022 and his 2025 purchase is still under water today.
Indexes like the S&P 500 compound at 10-11% because a handful of (mostly Tech) companies beat the odds.
US Q3 GDP comes out next week, and the @AtlantaFed’s GDPNow model is looking for the American economy to have accelerated from Q1/Q2. The engine of that improvement is consumer demand and inventory building, not AI data center construction.
US homebuilding stocks have seen an unusually protracted period of underperformance since 2025 as higher interest rates hit demand. This leaves the group with deeply discounted multiples and the chance for a relief rally if rates stabilize and/or move modestly lower. $ITB
Forty-plus years of Moore’s Law has delivered a highly concentrated index, with Tech/Big Tech now +50% of the S&P and the gap between the top sector (Tech: 38%) and second place (Financials: 12%) at decades-long highs.
Since 1980, Tech’s S&P 500 weighting has increased by 29 points and Energy/Materials have lost 27 points, the most notable shifts in index composition over the period. Since 2020, Tech has gained 15 points, and every other group’s weighting has declined.
US large cap Energy stocks have been this year’s star performers, and we still like the group. Earnings estimates for next year have room to increase, the sector remains the cheapest in the S&P 500, and its dividend yield is still double that of the index.
$XLE
The corporate bond market is signaling heightened recession worries, with the difference between High Yield and Investment Grade corporate spreads now exceeding 1 standard deviation.
DataTrek's Nick Colas: “The old dictum that ‘markets hate uncertainty’ is forever true, and there is more than enough uncertainty around AI for many bucketloads of investor discontent." @hannah_pedone @MarketWatch marketwatch.com/story/welcom…
Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) retweeted
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Huge thank you to @Downtown and the whole team at @TheCompoundNews for inviting our co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe to be part of The Compound and Friends on Broadway this December 8th in New York City! Get your tickets below! tcaf.ticketspice.com/the-com…
The equal weight S&P 500 has consistently lagged the market cap weighted version of the index over any given 1-year holding period for almost 4 years. Moreover, the gap is both larger and has run longer than any point in the last +20 years.
$RSP
Almost every (10 of 11) S&P sector has seen its multiple contract this year, the only exception being Consumer Staples.
Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) retweeted
THE COMPOUND X BROADWAY TICKETS ON SALE NOW🎟️🎭🏙️
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1/2 The Nasdaq Comp has doubled over the last 3 years (+106.1%), but that's nowhere close to the all-time high on March 27th 2000 (+296.8%). During the late 1990s, the Comp first doubled over a 3-year period in June 1997 and went on to gain +250% through its March 2000 peak...