DeFi_Machine

🚨 BREAKING: THE US ADDED 165K JOBS VS 65K EXPECTED. UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS TO 4.1%. October nonfarm payrolls came in at 165K, far above the 65K forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% vs 4.2% expected. The labor market is much stronger than the market thought. Job openings, ADP and jobless claims were already strong this week, and now payrolls confirm it. Good for the economy. Bad for the market. A strong labor market gives the Fed room to keep hiking, and a hike is already priced near 70%. Stocks are under pressure, and this can add to it. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HITS TODAY. DUMP OR PUMP IN MINUTES. Today at 13:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Unemployment Rate (Oct) Expected: 4.2% IF RATE < 4.2% → MARKET DUMPS IF RATE = 4.2% → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM IF RATE > 4.2% → MARKET PUMPS Also at 13:30 UTC: Nonfarm Payrolls. Expected: 65K. Job openings, ADP and jobless claims were all strong this week. A low unemployment rate keeps the Fed hawkish, and stocks are already under pressure. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 TODAY IS A BLOODBATH FOR TECH. THE AI BUBBLE IS STARTING TO POP. Tech is getting crushed, and the session is still going. NVIDIA is down 7.4%, AMD 14.8%, Micron 13%, Broadcom 7.3%, Palantir 9.5% and Tesla 11%. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 5%, and reportedly around $1.7 trillion in value has disappeared so far. Look at the weekly chart. Nasdaq printed two peaks at almost the same level, and now price has broken below the low between them. That is a classic double top, and it points lower. This is not a one day move. This is a pattern that took months to build. Now look at the macro: → NVIDIA reported $96.2B in revenue, up 106%, and $59.7B in net income. AMD posted the biggest quarter in its history. Both still crashed today. When record numbers stop lifting a stock, the market is worried about the future → Alphabet (Google) fell about 13% after its report last week, its worst day since the 2004 IPO. Cloud revenue grew 103%, but capex hit $51.4B in one quarter and free cash flow turned negative → Intel plunged almost 30% after guiding next quarter revenue far below expectations, as PC demand weakens because of memory prices → Meta raised its capex plan to $135-145 billion, and investors are asking who pays for all this spending → CoreWeave dropped about 30% in October → The Fed hiked in September, and the 10-year yield is above 5%. High rates hit expensive growth stocks first → CPI is 3.7% and oil is still high, so the Fed has no room to help → NVIDIA trades near 40x trailing earnings, so there is little cushion left → Democrats took control of Congress, and traders fear tighter AI rules and slower data center building → Talk of Anthropic IPO valuation moved from $2 trillion toward $1.5 trillion after growth slowed Crypto is not hiding from this either. Bitcoin is falling hard today together with the Nasdaq, right after the $6.3 billion Binance hack and a weak October, the worst since 2014. So much for digital gold. In a real selloff, Bitcoin trades like a risk asset, not a safe haven. Bulls say this is an overreaction, and they may be right. But AI stocks are priced for perfection, spending is enormous, rates are rising, and the chart already looks broken. This may be the start of the AI bubble cracking, not the end of AI. The technology is real. The prices may not be. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: US JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO 189K. THE LABOR MARKET IS STILL TOO STRONG. Initial jobless claims came in at 189K vs 196K expected. Job openings jumped to 7.523M and ADP printed 86K this week. Very few layoffs keeps the Fed hawkish, and payrolls come tomorrow. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY. THE LABOR MARKET GETS A BIG TEST. Today at 13:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims Expected: 196K IF CLAIMS < 190K → MARKET DUMPS IF CLAIMS 190K-200K → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM IF CLAIMS > 200K → MARKET PUMPS Job openings jumped to 7.523M and ADP printed 86K this week, so the labor market looks hot. Low claims would confirm it right before payrolls tomorrow. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 TRUMP FAILED TO MOVE OIL. THE SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADER DID IT WITH FOUR WORDS: "THIS WAR MUST END." Before the midterms, Trump kept pushing Iran peace talks to bring oil prices down. It did not work. Brent hit $116.72 on October 23 and stayed above $100. Then Democrats won control of Congress. Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said those four words, and warned Democrats will launch investigations and take Trump to court. Brent fell about 5% right after, from about $99 to $94, and is down about 9% on the day. Reuters says the market expects Trump may move on from Iran after the vote. An Iranian official still says a deal is far away. What comes next: if peace talks hold, cheaper oil helps cool inflation and takes pressure off the Fed. If talks fail, oil can jump back fast. My base case is high volatility until a deal is signed. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: US SERVICES PMI MISSES BIG. 56.1 VS 57.9 EXPECTED. S&P Global Services PMI (Oct, final) came in at 56.1, well below the 57.9 forecast and below the flash reading. The biggest part of the US economy is slowing. The midterms are over, Democrats took control of Congress, and the market now has a new Washington to price. ADP was strong this morning at 86K, so the data is mixed. The market has to decide what matters more. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: US PRIVATE JOBS BEAT THE FORECAST. ADP SHOWS 86K VS 69K EXPECTED. ADP employment change came in at 86K, well above the 69K forecast. Job openings jumped to 7.523M yesterday, and now private hiring is strong too. A hot labor market keeps the Fed hawkish. Democrats also won the midterms and took control of Congress, so the market now has a new Washington to price. More data today: Services PMI at 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET) and ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Payrolls come on Friday. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 SERVICES ARE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE US ECONOMY. TWO PMI READS HIT TODAY. Today at 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): S&P Global Services PMI (Oct, final) Expected: 57.9 IF PMI > 57.9 → MARKET DUMPS IF PMI = 57.9 → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM IF PMI < 57.9 → MARKET PUMPS Last month the ISM services prices index hit 74, the highest since 2022. Strong services data with high prices keeps the Fed hawkish. Also today at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): ISM Services PMI. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 ADP JOBS HIT TODAY, TWO DAYS BEFORE PAYROLLS. THE FIRST LABOR SIGNAL OF THE WEEK. Today at 13:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Employment Change (Oct) Expected: 65K IF ADP > 65K → MARKET DUMPS IF ADP = 65K → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM IF ADP < 65K → MARKET PUMPS Job openings jumped to 7.523M yesterday. Another strong labor number keeps the Fed hawkish, while a weak one gives the market room to breathe. Payrolls come on Friday. Over 12 years in these markets. Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.