Real estate is not just about being right in the moment it’s about being right over time ⏳ which involves an iterative process: Predict, Reflect, Refine. Repeat. Keep that feedback loop going, and you’ll be right over time.

This game of investing we play in is not about home runs. It’s about surviving. As @RayDalio puts it, “ it takes only one really bad bet or a series of moderately bad bets to knock me out of the game”. Downside protect and the upside will follow.

Too busy to listen? No Problem. Deal Flow Friday is now on Substack 📈 @dealflowfriday Starting with our latest episode with @AlecSlocum , Founder and CEO of ApartmentIQ! #DealFlowFriday #Multifamily #Investing #substack substack.com/@davidmoghavem/…

You know a market is getting HOT when brokers start getting egos on calls when talking to new buyers breaking into their market. But word of advice to brokers, don’t assume a new name means a flaky buyer. I get it. You’re slammed with calls, trying to weed out the real buyers from the fake ones. In my experience, the best brokers stay patient and treat every intro like it could be the next buyer on their next deal.

Was in Portland this week, my first time in nearly a decade. (sorry, no pod this week) The last time I was here, I was an analyst underwriting prospective deals for @FARlikewhoa , modeling out what would eventually become Trion Properties, Inc. robust portfolio of over a thousand units in the Pac-Northwest. We ended up hitting a major milestone at the time, as the most active buyer in the mid market space. Today, Portland may not get the same buzz as markets like Phoenix, Austin, or Miami. Some still see it through the lens of “political risk,” rent control hurdles, or assume there’s no real growth story on the demand side. Others are still spooked by the post-COVID headline risk. But under the surface, the fundamentals are really compelling: Urban: You can buy WELL BELOW replacement cost. And not the 20-30% below you typically see, but in the urban core it’s more like 50%+. There’s still some supply to absorb and operational challenges in urban core, but streets are cleaner, less tents, and things seem to be turning around for the better. Suburbs: the burbs meanwhile, continue to deliver steady, reliable cash flow. Delinquency is low, while affordability metrics are strong, with rent to income ratios of roughly 20–23%, far better than many comparable MSAs. So while Portland may not have the flashiest inbound migration story, it has an incredible supply-side story. Personally, I loved the vibe. There’s something refreshingly authentic about Portland. It’s got this “weirdness” in the best possible way that gives it character. Baristas take pride in the coffe they brew, Property managers go into detail on the history behind a building’s name they manage. And to top it off, you can get an awesome glass of Oregon Pinot that can stack up to a French burgundy, at half the cost 🤌 Definitely hits different when you’re drinking it on its home turf, with an amazing team! @maxsharkansky Natalina Rettew Johnny De La Espriella, MBA #Portland #Multifamily #RealEstateInvesting #Cashflow #ReplacementCost #ContrarianInvesting #CRE #TrionProperties @trionproperties

It was an honor and a pleasure to attend the 2025 Newmark Housing Conference this year. Two standout moments for me were hearing @MichaelPhelps , the most decorated Olympian of all time, share his story on achieving greatness while also overcoming mental health issues. The speaker prior to him was @MickEbeling , founder of @NotImpossible , who opened my eyes on purpose, how to really measure true achievements. Two individuals from very different worlds, but both embodying what it means to push beyond limits. A few quotes i jotted down: “You can’t put a limit on anything. The more you dream, the farther you get.”-Michael Phelps “Everything in our world that is possible today, was impossible at first. So that means that everything that is impossible today is on the trajectory of becoming possible.” - Mick Ebeling Beyond the inspiring speakers, it was great reconnecting with brokers, colleagues, and familiar faces across the industry. Even better connecting on the golf course 🏌💫 Awesome event! Now let's get some deals done 📈

If Rory's win at Augusta isn't giving you some extra Monday Motivation today, I don't know what will. A true masterclass in perseverance after crumbling mentally at the US open. You could tell he's been fighting demons, even till the last hole. But he still managed to pull off some miraculous shots and finally earned a Green Jacket. There's no other sport that tests mental strength for an individual like Golf, and the lessons you learn from the sport are so applicable to life. In this case, mental grit pays off. That discipline, self-belief, and showing up over and over again is the difference between falling short and making history. Make sure to start this week with that same energy. Quiet the noise. Trust the process. And keep swinging 🏌‍♂️ 💫

Everyone with half a brain knew this Measure ULA “Mansion Tax” was a complete DISASTER for Los Angeles. But now, we have proof. According to a new UCLA report, Measure ULA has caused: 📉 A 30–50% drop in commercial, industrial, and multifamily real estate transactions in Los Angeles. 📉 A 50–55% decline in the odds of a sale being above ULA’s tax threshold. 📉 An estimated $25 million annual loss in property tax revenue, a number that will compound over time. This policy was marketed to the "tax the rich" crowd by slapping a catchy "mansion tax" name to it. Now it has made the LA’s housing crisis much worse and made LA fall into even more debt. It's now harder to build housing and causing a massive dislocation in the market. Very sad what's happening to my hometown. lewis.ucla.edu/research/the-…

I’m seeing bad debt in Atlanta improve drastically, while simultaneously seeing other markets just starting to feel the pain of bad debt. For the past few years, bad debt and evictions have been one of the biggest concerns in Atlanta multifamily investing. It’s kept institutional capital on the sidelines, created operational headaches, and added risk to deals. This was very real, bad debt piled up and landlords had to sit in wait for municipalities to take FOREVER to process evictions and get on-duty sherriffs to perform set-outs. It was painful to say the least. That was about 2-3 years ago, but so much has changed But here’s the difference—Atlanta has already worked through the worst of it, while other markets are just starting to deal with these issues. On @DealFlowFriday , Brooks Colquitt shared some key stats: 😨 At its peak in late 2021, bad debt in Atlanta hit 18% 😮‍💨 Today, it’s down to 7% in the whole Atlanta MSA, and still improving 🙂 By year-end, it could normalize closer to 1% - 4% depending ont he asset and location, historically a healthy level. Meanwhile, markets I cover like Charlotte and Denver are now dealing with rising delinquencies and eviction backlogs that Atlanta has already started to clean up. Municipalities haven't reacted yet and I feel the same logjam Atlanta had with evictions will happen to these markets. This is where good management makes all the difference. In a market like Atlanta, where you need to be on top of collections and operations every single day, the best-run properties are already seeing improvements while others are still struggling. Brooks put it best: “Buyers who were hesitant are now jumping in because they finally feel like they can stabilize these deals.” This is why we’re bullish on Atlanta. The worst is behind us, and those who step in now will benefit as capital returns. Are you seeing bad debt improve in your markets, or is it just getting started? Let’s discuss. #DealFlowFriday #RealEstateInvesting #Atlanta #Multifamily #CRE #MarketTrends