Devolved Election Projections

The Greens? And then making this work for all UK parties just isn't that simple. Ours follow themes from their logos and/or colours. It's fine.

That isn't how unicode emojis work. Please feel free to suggest any from this list: unicode.org/emoji/charts/ful…

They aren't as many unicode emojis as you'd think.

SF are not close to a second seat in Belfast South. There are 5 or 6 places where pick ups are more likely. Our model has been pretty bullish on the Greens for months now. This is the lowest we've had them for a very long time because its their worst poll since May 2025.

Coloured by largest party by first preference votes.

Similar since both sides are taking mainly from Other.

That's just straight from the poll so its 40N-42U, 18 others.

Very small parties like PBP are tricky because even just rounding to the nearest whole number is the difference between holding on and wipe out. The party got 1.8% last time so 1% crushes them, 2% would be safe. This is 1%, so he'd lose

Not on these numbers

The colours are the largest single party by first preferences.

You shouldn't be and I didn't touch them. What I touched would account for the different starting values but not the transfer rates. Can you send me a video of yours - or before and after screenshots so I can investigate?

This is a poor poll for the SDLP which is a big part of that. Their average from previous polls makes LV closer on the Nowcast

I think my numbers look a litte different to yours (I amended McCusker in NB which may have rippled) SF go out on Count 11 with 7.6%, SDLP vote goes up by 4.6% which is a 61% transfer rate, including non-transferables and that some of those SF votes are really 2nd/3rd prefs.

Yeah, perfectly reasonable. Our Monte Carlo system might agree once it's updated (give me an hour or so), the SDLP average likely keeps LV leaning in their direction.

I do think a second reference point is good overall, but I won't start singing their praises just yet.

I'll keep defending LT, and I'm not a fan of MiC. Their Scottish and Welsh numbers were very far off because they just copied and pasted English voting behaviour and crossed their fingers. I don't know how they're handling NI but I'm not filled with hope devolvedelections.co.uk/accu…

This does include the boundary changes and yes it's Doherty. WB is much better for unionism unionism split 3 ways and imperfect transfers means its not guaranteed. On these numbers the DUP are missing out by 0.2%. That's a tie in my book.

Both are very close, if you run the same numbers and hit the random variation button which ditributes the swings a bit differently, then both do flip sometimes.