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everyone is arguing whether spacex at $2 trillion is too expensive, almost nobody noticed what actually changed since 1980
apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue back then
spacex wants you to buy at nearly $2 trillion and 100 times revenue now
but the real story is not the price, it is that the entire nature of an IPO changed underneath us
in 1980 you bought a business and hoped for a vision, in 2026 you buy the vision and hope for the business
almost nobody buying this IPO on june 12 will read the 300 page document to understand which one they are actually getting
i fed both filings to Claude and had it find the five differences that explain the whole shift
that understanding is the edge most retail will never bother to get
the best entries never feel good
when everything is clear, btc trending, revenue up, ct bullish, you feel confident buying. but by then that confidence is already in the price
the discount only exists while nobody knows what happens next
$stonk right now:
btc chopping between 75k and 80k
weekend revenue dipped
half of ct says the launchpad meta is dead, the other half says pump wins the stocks war
nobody is sure. that's exactly why it's at $93M and not $300M
last week was the same. stonk at $71M, timeline writing obituaries. 3 days later it was +50%
the day it's obvious again, revenue back above $150k, btc breaking out, trenches full, you won't get this price
you don't get paid for being right when everyone agrees. you get paid for buying when nobody does
stonkfun revenue dropped to $61k on saturday. lowest day in weeks, not going to pretend otherwise
so i checked if it's a stonk problem or a market problem
pons revenue over the same week:
$79k → $74k → $62k → $55k → $37k
cut in half in 5 days
pump went from $1.69M to $1.15M a day
the whole launchpad sector cooled off, not just stonk
now the part that matters:
last 7 days stonkfun made $858k
pons made $410k
stonk earned 2x more and still trades at $93M
pons trades at $154M
on a yearly basis that's ~2x revenue for stonk vs ~7x for pons
slow days happen to every pad. the question is what you're paying for each dollar it makes
and $stonk is still the cheapest one by far
launchpad tokens got hit today
$pump -7%, $pons -10%, $stonk -14%
so i checked what you're actually paying for each one
took last 7 days of revenue on defillama and annualized it:
stonkfun: ~$50M/yr revenue, $87M mcap → 1.7x
pump: ~$530M/yr revenue, $1.95B mcap → 3.7x
pons: ~$23M/yr revenue, $154M mcap → 6.8x
stonk is the cheapest of the three by a mile. pons costs 4x more per dollar of revenue
and the cheapest one got sold the hardest today
pump has the size and the 2 year track record, fair enough to pay more for it
pons is the one i can't explain. revenue down 4 days straight and still priced at almost 7x
revenue doesn't care about red candles. yesterday stonkfun did $161k, one of its best days this week
if the market starts pricing launchpads on revenue again, the gap between 1.7x and 6.8x doesn't last
looked at who actually sold $stonk on the way down from $317M
fish and dolphin wallets net sold $5.5M
whales net sold just $492k
the small wallets did most of the dumping
the whale side is more interesting. old whales who bought under $40M took profit and left. new whales stepped in with a cost basis above $100M
79% of top holders are underwater right now. 70% of them haven't sold a single coin
and someone is twapping in as we speak
this is what a reset looks like. weak hands are out, and the new big money is sitting in red and not moving
one more thing people miss:
stonkfun has paid $95.7M to holders of the coins launched on it
stonk itself is worth ~$91M
the pad has already given away more than the market prices it at
the sellers are gone. the ones left are waiting for $100M+ to break even, and they're not in a rush
data via @SunFlowSolana
market's bleeding again. most of you are just staring at red bags waiting for a bounce
on stonkfun your bags pay you while you wait
hold $zcat or $mask → you get zec
hold $si → you get nvidia (nvdax)
other coins pay out in gold and btc
$15M+ in zec alone already sent to holders
and $stonk sits on top of all of it. every trade on every one of these coins feeds the buybacks. 619k stonk burned yesterday on a red day
you can wait for the bounce and get paid in real assets while you do
$stonk is $107M now. +50% from the lows in 3 days
what i keep looking at:
the biggest holder watched his $12M profit melt to $3.4M and didn't sell a single token
whales from other ecosystems (zcat, fartcoin) started buying at $87-98M
832k stonk burned yesterday, 982k the day before. supply keeps shrinking while price climbs
the one thing i'm watching: other pads like $otc are doing similar daily fees at a fraction of the mcap. if launches keep moving there, stonk has to fight for it
for now the pad is still earning, still burning, and the people with the most to lose are holding
bottom was in. now it's about whether revenue keeps up with price
$stonk +30% from the lows since this post
the market priced it like a dead pad while it was out-earning pons 3x
most people will notice at $150M. you saw it at $75M. follow for the next one
$STONK is down ~75% from its highs. here's why i'm still watching it.
last 30 days on defillama:
stonkfun: $20M revenue, $12M spent buying back $STONK
pons: $6M revenue, $5.4M in buybacks
stonk made 3x more and bought back 2x more.
yet pons trades at ~$190M and stonk at ~$75M.
21% of total $STONK supply is already burned. all paid for by revenue.
and the launchpad isn't dead. si, mask, zcat, the biggest runners on solana lately all came from stonk.
the risks:
volume cooled hard. last week stonk made ~$1M vs $20M for the month.
and point farm capital holds 40.9M $STONK (~5% of supply) on fomo. if he decides to sell, it's real pressure.
but if volume comes back to tokenized stocks, one more runner shows up, or the current ones start moving again, stonk won't lag behind.
the best narratives are the ones you can explain in one sentence.
"launch a coin paired with a real stock" is exactly that.
stonkfun built liquidity around tokenized equities, and i think that narrative can hit harder than the first wave did.
yesterday ct wrote stonk's obituary
"stonk died"
"revenue down 96% from ath"
same day stonkfun revenue doubled. $85k → $176k
buybacks $106k, highest in 5 days
week over week revenue is up too ($875k → $917k), first green week in a while
one day doesn't make a trend, i know. but this is how bottoms usually look
revenue stops falling first, price follows later
by the time the timeline notices, it's already 2x off the lows
watching the next few days closely. if revenue holds above $150k, the bottom is in
everyone on ct spent sunday calling blood monday. when the whole timeline agrees on a crash it rarely comes. real blood mondays show up when nobody's ready for them
so i started bidding $stonk lows instead
today it's +20% and this looks like the bottom to me
what i kept watching while it bled:
stonkfun did $35.3M revenue lifetime, $21.1M of it went straight into buybacks. thats ~25% of the current mcap already bought back
weekly revenue cooled hard ($5M → $1M), not hiding that. but buybacks didn't stop for a single day, still $50-130k daily even in the worst week
price dumped 70%+, the machine kept eating supply the whole way down. 21% of supply already burned
if tokenized stocks volume comes back, or one more runner hits on the pad, stonk catches up fast
rest of the ecosystem held better than i expected:
$si - biggest holder reportedly dumped his whole bag overnight and price barely moved. supply got absorbed
$mask - knocking on $50M again, buybacks + burns nonstop
i'm in all three, nfa
$STONK is down ~75% from its highs. here's why i'm still watching it.
last 30 days on defillama:
stonkfun: $20M revenue, $12M spent buying back $STONK
pons: $6M revenue, $5.4M in buybacks
stonk made 3x more and bought back 2x more.
yet pons trades at ~$190M and stonk at ~$75M.
21% of total $STONK supply is already burned. all paid for by revenue.
and the launchpad isn't dead. si, mask, zcat, the biggest runners on solana lately all came from stonk.
the risks:
volume cooled hard. last week stonk made ~$1M vs $20M for the month.
and point farm capital holds 40.9M $STONK (~5% of supply) on fomo. if he decides to sell, it's real pressure.
but if volume comes back to tokenized stocks, one more runner shows up, or the current ones start moving again, stonk won't lag behind.
the best narratives are the ones you can explain in one sentence.
"launch a coin paired with a real stock" is exactly that.
stonkfun built liquidity around tokenized equities, and i think that narrative can hit harder than the first wave did.
privacy coins are a $78B sector rn.
$ZEC alone: $19.6B
$XMR: $10.3B
$NEAR: $6.5B
meanwhile the #1 privacy protocol by revenue on defillama, ahead of tornado and railgun, is $MASK.
at ~$45M.
that's 0.06% of the sector.
zec is ~430x bigger.
not saying it gets there.
but one of these numbers looks very wrong.
wrote a whole post about the $MASK flywheel this morning.
by evening they announced 100M $MASK in points for using it.
anything before oct 19 counts 2x.
funny timing again.
i went through every $MASK fud on my tl and followed the money on-chain.
here's what the chain actually shows.
"dev holds 40%, rug incoming"
dev bought ~400M at launch and still holds ~385M today.
sold ~3M on day one. since then, his tokens only went to a burn wallet and the LP.
defillama literally tracks that wallet as protocol treasury.
"the token is useless"
100% of protocol fees go to $MASK buybacks. they post the burn tx almost every day.
21.6M $MASK burned so far. that's 2.16% of supply in 3 weeks.
"it's just a bonk guy pump"
nullmask is #1 privacy protocol by revenue on defillama, ahead of tornado and railgun.
even counting only deposit/withdraw fees, it did more than railgun last week.
3 weeks after launch.
funny how the wallet everyone's scared of is the one burning supply.
i went through every $MASK fud on my tl and followed the money on-chain.
here's what the chain actually shows.
"dev holds 40%, rug incoming"
dev bought ~400M at launch and still holds ~385M today.
sold ~3M on day one. since then, his tokens only went to a burn wallet and the LP.
defillama literally tracks that wallet as protocol treasury.
"the token is useless"
100% of protocol fees go to $MASK buybacks. they post the burn tx almost every day.
21.6M $MASK burned so far. that's 2.16% of supply in 3 weeks.
"it's just a bonk guy pump"
nullmask is #1 privacy protocol by revenue on defillama, ahead of tornado and railgun.
even counting only deposit/withdraw fees, it did more than railgun last week.
3 weeks after launch.
funny how the wallet everyone's scared of is the one burning supply.
bonk guy just dropped a full thread on $MASK. worth reading.
btc slipped from 82k to 81k today and $MASK still pushed to ~48M.
outperforming btc, eth and sol on a red day.
usually that's what you see right before the market turns.
48M sounds like a lot until you remember the dev holds ~40%.
that's FDV, not mcap. circulating is closer to ~29M.
in a couple of weeks this might look like one of the better entries.
Nullmask / $MASK: the most underrated privacy coin of the cycle
$MASK is currently sitting at around $23.5m market cap ($40m FDV, with 40% of supply out of circulation and 2.16% already burnt)
i believe Nullmask is by far the most underrated privacy coin in all of crypto, and i'll explain why in this thread
let's start by looking at the top privacy coins and their market caps:
• ZCash / $ZEC: $21 BILLION market cap
• $NEAR: $6.8 BILLION market cap
these two have been by far the biggest gainers in the top 50 cryptocurrencies over the past year, and it's not even close!
if it isn't already obvious, both have run hard (and continue to run) on the PRIVACY narrative
but what's impressive isn't just their gigantic market caps
it's how much they've added in the past year alone:
• ZCash added $18 BILLION to its market cap
• NEAR added $4.3 BILLION to its market cap
all before the bull run has properly started
so how does this affect Nullmask / $MASK?
the incredible runs ZEC, NEAR, and other privacy coins have had have established beyond reasonable doubt that this is the privacy cycle
and i believe Nullmask is going to win big because it sits right at the heart of this narrative, with several key advantages that many much bigger privacy coins don't have
let's start with the PRODUCT
Nullmask makes private transactions possible across EVM chains and Solana in the most normie-friendly way imaginable
you can use your existing wallets (MetaMask, Rabby, Phantom, etc.) the same way you normally would, while enabling private transactions across major ecosystems like Ethereum, BNB, Base, Robinhood, and Solana
yes, you read that right
you don't need to learn how to use a new wallet, create a new seed phrase or private key, learn to navigate a complicated new blockchain, or deal with any of that nonsense
you can activate Nullmask's privacy capabilities on your existing crypto setup in just a few clicks
all you need to do is activate Nullmask's custom RPC and let its 'virtual private network' shield your transfers using zero-knowledge proofs
i'm simplifying the technical details to make this as normie-friendly as possible, but that's the gist of it
and this isn't just speculative stuff: Nullmask is already LIVE & WORKING on Ethereum, BNB, Base, and Robinhood
you can actually use the product and verify that it works!
but i'm bullish on $MASK for more than just the product
TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET (TAM)
what makes Nullmask so incredibly bullish and underrated isn't just how impressive the product is, but the size of its total addressable market
i've never used the ZCash or NEAR blockchains, and the same is true for tens of millions of users across Solana, Robinhood, Base, BNB, and Ethereum
yet ZCash and NEAR have market caps of approximately $21 BILLION and $7 BILLION, respectively
the average crypto user may never touch the ZCash or NEAR blockchains, but they're already using Ethereum, Robinhood, BNB, Solana, and Base
and Nullmask caters to those users
this begs the question:
what is fair value for Nullmask when ZCash and NEAR are both trading at multibillion-dollar valuations?
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE TEAM
when a protocol promises something as ambitious as Nullmask does, you obviously want to know who's building it and whether they're capable of delivering
Nullmask is built by several ZCash contributors, led by Tomas Krnak
Tomas Krnak helped build shielded ZCash transactions for hardware wallets. his work was funded by the ZCash Foundation and merged into the main ZCash protocol itself
i should also add that the lead dev is doxxed and regularly participates in live interviews!
PARTNERSHIPS & INTEGRATIONS
we've established that the team has serious credentials in the privacy space and that the product is already live and working
but what about partnerships, integrations, and endorsements?
here's a list of industry players Nullmask has collaborated with in some form since launching:
• NEAR Protocol ($11.3 BILLION ATH)
• THORChain ($4.4 BILLION ATH)
• Dashpay
• Beldex
• Quai Network
the team also revealed in a recent AMA that it's in discussions with major wallet providers, including MetaMask, about potentially integrating Nullmask as an additional privacy layer
all of this for a product that isn't even a month old, by the way!
METRICS & REVENUE
Nullmask looks incredibly strong from a fundamentals perspective, but the key question is:
what do the metrics actually look like?
since the protocol launched a little over two weeks ago, Nullmask has generated:
• $37.8 MILLION in total protocol volume, averaging $2.36 million per day
• $833k in total revenue, averaging $52k per day
it has also burnt 2.16% of supply and distributed $1.4 MILLION in $ZEC rewards to holders since the token launched approximately three weeks ago (token launched a week before the protocol)
and here's the important part:
all these adoption metrics were recorded before the protocol is live on Solana, which is expected to happen next week, and mostly before it went live on Robinhood and BNB just a few days earlier
the team also has 20% of the token supply allocated to a long-term incentives campaign designed to encourage people to use the protocol and accelerate adoption
i should also add that Nullmask is now ranked #1 among ALL privacy protocols for both 7-day and 30-day revenue, according to DeFiLlama, barely two weeks after its protocol went live, and by a clear margin
this is despite the fact that
-it only went live on Robinhood and BNB a few days earlier
- it is yet to launch on Solana
- its incentives program aimed at accelerating adoption is yet to launch
the speed of adoption Nullmask has witnessed is impressive for any privacy protocol
TOKENOMICS
20% of the token supply is allocated to the team and locked for two years, meaning these tokens won't start entering circulation until at least two years after token launch
another 20% is reserved for an incentives campaign aimed at accelerating protocol adoption
the remaining 60% of supply is circulating
this means approximately 60% of the supply is currently in circulation, while the bulk of the rest won't enter circulation anytime soon
ROADMAP
• Launch on Ethereum, Robinhood, BNB, and Base (LIVE)
• Cross-chain bridge (LIVE)
• Unshield directly to ZEC wallets (October 2026)
• Launch on Solana (Q4 2026)
• NullMask SDK (Q4 2026)
• Privacy Perpetuals (Q4 2026)
TO CONCLUDE
i know Nullmask might sound too good to be true right now, and it's crazy to me that it's sitting at such a ridiculously low market cap
but believe it or not, all of the facts in my thesis above can be independently verified
i'm not going to ask you to buy Nullmask
i'm simply laying out my thesis and thought process for this trade, and explaining why i believe it could be a big one
i objectively believe $MASK will become a multibillion-dollar token before the end of the bull run, and i expect it to be yet another kingmaker trade for me
nothing in this thesis is financial advice
it's up to you what you do with the above information
$SI update.
broke out of the triangle and retested it, textbook.
the downtrend from 68M is done. next target is ATH.
bonk guy is calling hundreds of millions after that.
when whales finally chase this, they'll be topblasting from way higher.
glad i bought at the bottom of the range instead of waiting for confirmation.
if you're fomoing $SI, $MASK looks like the better r/r rn.
bonk guy hinted at it yesterday: "most underrated privacy coin in all of crypto is sitting at $28m"
today he said a thread is coming.
whales are already in: aurelius ~3%, heat ~2.3%, marcell ~1.6%.
dev holds ~39% and keeps buying back + burning.
feels like $SI two weeks ago.
quick update: bonk guy liked this one.
a few hours later $SI is up 30% and pushing out of the triangle.
not saying those two things are connected.
funny timing though.
everyone's crying rn.
some lost 5 figs, some lost 6.
half the timeline is blaming other influencers for making them exit liquidity.
i'm looking at it from a different angle.
this feels a lot like august, an opportunity i partly missed.
the best move back then was simple: stick with strong influencers like bonk guy, hold with him, and claim 100x-1000x on the winners.
this is the second best chance before strong assets run again.
i like that people are scared. that's when i decided to start buying.
and taking the strong assets bonk guy picked doesn't seem like a mistake to me.
my list 👇
