NotKingCoal (@DoesPanOut) profile picture

There is a tide in the affairs of men - which taken at the flood.. leads to fortune. Omitted all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and misery.

Joined February 2020
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JPY intervention again? Wasn't even near 160
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Early but $XOM trading 130s (ATH was 126 in 2024), $SLB $HAL $CVX up 10-15%. Who knows if it lasts til the proper open tomorrow.
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$NBR day trading its M&A buys. Sells off bulk of Parker (Quail tools) for 600M after buying the entirety for ~275M in March. Nice one!
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Just a 85c 5 minute copper candle...
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$NEXA anything? just added a bunch... no news but somebody doesn't want their position anymore.
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Overvalued at 18, cheap at 9. Back in 9.40s. Just listened to the call. Costs up ~$8/T. 300K T lower production, inventory build (rail congestion, etc) Up to 6.5M (!) Tons in 2025. $30M acquisition, $25M extra cap ex for ~2M ton extra production seems reasonable.
Replying to @dyer440
just sold mine 18.30s. Very happy with it just think this is as good as it gets short term. Esp. comparing to say $AMR or $HCC which really should be MUCH bigger mcaps than Ramaco
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Contracting some met for Euro power plants in 2023. Apparently investors really don't like growth because they are slaughtering this name but at this price w de minimis debt and no ARO it's worth a look $METC
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$dvn Not bad but why you want to put this out in the middle of the day?
Two of my favorite things to do are watching movies and watching markets. Sometimes I feel like maybe the wires get crossed thoughts drift from one to the other. Many of the best films involve stories of revenge.. where someone is brutally wronged and comes back with a 1
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alive. I can't help but think that industry might be met coal. I suspect there's still some life left in players like Contura or Ramaco. If there is still a pulse there there is going to be a pretty violent conclusion to this story. Specifically, $CTRA which was a 3
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Out of most of this today... finishing some sales at 97s. Going to hold onto a small position. What to deploy this cash into now... hmmm
If you were waiting for a pullback in Brazil, now's a decent time to make that bet. I added $VALE and $PBR Gap filled from November 4 on $EWZ Internal political ructions aside, these are dirt cheap stocks.
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The best gold add of the day is o3. Got plenty more at 2.24. 14M CAD Enterprise Value for all that land and drilling, just raised FT at 4.54 in February. Seems like a decent buy but I'm always wrong.
$metc Today it's Ramaco's turn. $55/ton cost on its flagship Elk Creek mine. Selling to Europe, so avoiding the Aussie China spat. Probably the most upbeat of all the calls.
miningmx.com/top-story/44733… Alphamin top story on miningmx. good for the company, and the country.
$oiii O3 mining something definitely up
What is the starkest contrast in markets today? Growth/value, xlk/xle? Sure... but to me the contrast between IYT/XOP is really unimaginable. New all time highs for trannies while E&P languishes at extreme lows. They are normally correlated. Hard to say if one leads
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But they are at least coincident most of the time - except the last year. I am betting on at least some closing of this gap. To me: $AR $SWN $DVN $FANG some of my favorites. No trans shorts yet.
Pretty good 1st half results out of Nordgold today. 507K ounces, lower AISC - $1028. $433M EBITDA. They delisted at $1.4B EV, I wonder what they would be trading at now...
Are oil stocks negatively correlated with oil now?
furious vengeance to remedy the situation. Stories like Unforgiven, Kill Bill or I Spit on Your Grave (weak stomach warning) come to mind. Similarly, I think some of the best market stories explore the same themes. A company or industry left for dead which manages to stay 2
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multi billion dollar firm (as Alpha Natural) and now has let go of most of its debt. Waiting with bated breath to see the conclusion of this one. 4