@DurdenBTC

$BTC $SPY 🧠 Macro + Quant. Invest systematically. Newsletter: https://xitter.cf/t.co/US4nD9R1xB Charting Suite: https://xitter.cf/t.co/nPZ0MI5agI

 Miami, FL
durdenbtc.com/
Joined August 2016
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  • Followers8.2K
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first bear market in bitcoin's history where we never broke below realised price. 2015: -25%. 2018: -40%. 2020: -30%. 2022: -20%. 2026: never.
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chart: @_checkonchain.
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bitcoin has never had back-to-back down years. 2014: -58% → 2015: +34% 2018: -74% → 2019: +92% 2022: -64% → 2023: +155% 2025 closed -6%. 2026 sits at -6% with ten weeks left. q4 median is +28%.
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system caught the move, system left the move. my opinion of fair value was never consulted. that's the only way to operate. $BTC
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free on tradingview: tradingview.com/script/hJQGM…
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$BTC: 43% below power law fair value. cheap is a level and the trend is the gate.
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global liquidity fair value for $BTC: $207,960. 2.5x gap. deepest discount since 2015.
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$BTC LTH unrealised profit share, trough → today: 2015: 18% → mean. 2019: 35% → mean. 2023: 35% → mean. 2026: 60% → 88%. each prior cross back through the mean came 9–18 months before the part people remember. the boring stretch is where the position gets built.
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eight years of bitcoin on a log regression channel. seven decisions. five buys under -1.5σ. three sells over +2σ. every other day is a hold. today: -0.94σ. no decision required. not financial advice. just math.
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full interactive chart available free @ durdenbtc.com/charts/btc-tre…

Bitcoin Log Regression Channel — Log Trend & ±σ Bands | DurdenBTC

Bitcoin's log-regression trend with standard-deviation bands and a forward channel. How far is price from trend? Updated daily.

durdenbtc.com
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LTH-AVIV crossed back above 1. how underwater $BTC long-term holders got at each cycle low: 2015: -75%. 2018: -50%. 2022: -45%. 2026: -20%. either that's diminishing returns showing up early or it's getting harder to make the oldest coins sell.
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chart: @_checkonchain.
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$BTC is back above every major moving average. 128dma. 200dma. 365dma. 200wma. first time since the top.
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get this chart & the rest of my suite free @ durdenbtc.com/charts/btc-tre…

Bitcoin Trend Ladder — Live Moving-Average Chart | DurdenBTC

The 128, 200, 365-day and 200-week moving averages on one interactive Bitcoin chart. Updated daily.

durdenbtc.com
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mayer multiple z-score just broke its cycle downtrend. 2020: broke at $9k. ran to $69k. 2023: broke at $20k. ran to $125k. 2026: broke at $69k. two for two. both went 5x+ for $BTC. waiting on the third.
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chart: @_checkonchain.
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the bitcoin bottom used to be a moment; now it's a zone. days $BTC spent in the capitulation band before leaving: 2015: ~60 2019: ~5 2020: 1 2026: 200+ and still in it
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see for yourself, the chart & my entire suite is free: durdenbtc.com/charts/btc-rel…

Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Profit — Capitulation Zones | DurdenBTC

How much of Bitcoin's market cap is paper profit. Low readings mark capitulation — every major cycle bottom hit the same band. Updated daily.

durdenbtc.com
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ahem
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sixth bounce for bitcoin off the floor of the power law channel since 2013. the chart keeps doing the thing.
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full interactive chart along with my full suite is available free: durdenbtc.com/charts/btc-pow…

Bitcoin Power Law Quantile Regression — Live Bands | DurdenBTC

Bitcoin's power law with quantile bands Q5–Q95 and a quantile oscillator. Where does price sit in its historical range? Updated daily.

durdenbtc.com
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