Former D1 college player. Professionally betting on tennis since 2012. No.1 ranked tennis tipster on Tipstrr. 7.5% margin over 1800 bets, all at Pinnacle odds.
London, UK
Joined September 2023
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1) A thread on why CLV does not equal EV.
Yes, sure, it is a little inspired by Carabelli going off 4.86 for a -17% CLV on my bet at 4.44.
But, the people backing Michelsen in the 1.25 to 1.30 range cannot possibly have known he had lost 15 pounds from food poisoning.
Well this proved rather useful - thank you !
🎾 Before betting on Humbert tomorrow, take a look at this little survey 👇
📊 We pulled every best-of-3 match from the current ATP top 100 over 2025-26 (Tour, Challengers, Davis Cup, Slam quallies).
Average win rate in deciding sets: 55.6%.
Ugo Humbert, world #32? 8 wins, 19 losses.
29.6%. Dead last. 100th out of 100.
😬 Worst closers in the top 100:
100. Humbert (#32) – 29.6%
99. Giron (#88) – 34.1% (I bet you already know about him 😜)
98. Kecmanovic (#61) – 37.5% (this one too 🙃)
97. Sonego (#87) – 38.5%
96. Struff (#59) – 39.4%
Everyone else on that list is ranked 59th or lower.
🧊 The wild part: in matches settled in two sets, he's around 41-21. Same guy, same seasons. Get him to a third set and he turns into a 30% player.
⚔️ Gea? 24-21 in deciders. Not a monster closer either, but miles ahead.
👑 Best closers for reference: Sinner 81.2%, Alcaraz 80.6%, Fils 76.9%.
So if this one goes 3, I know which side the numbers are on.
📩 Want the full study (all 100 players, best to worst closer)? It's in our newsletter. Subscribe here 👇
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@Tennis_Metrics
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Nava quickly becoming one of my favorite players, it looks like he really loves his job and is so happy to be at the ATP level. I chatted to him briefly at Surbiton Challenger a few years ago and he seemed like a super nice guy. Fun game to watch also!
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Does anyone know if the website dartsrankings.com/tennis/sch…
will be coming back?
It was so good for checking entry lists of future tournaments but hasn't been updated since the end of last year...
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Decent start to 2026:
Bets: 87
Profit: 77 units
ROI: 18.7%
But variance can play a large role in small sample sizes like this. There is, in fact, a 5% chance that these 87 bets actually had EV of zero...
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When you are on a bad run, sh!t like this happens!
Tough luck for Aleksandar Kovacevic, leading 5-4 (30-15) vs Carlos Taberner, a ball rolled on court mid-point.
Though he won it, the umpire had called a LET during play, checked video review and gave a replay.
Taberner came back to take the set 7-5.
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Annoying one, correct read but went with the wrong offer 🙁
Hoping some of you got the match or set 1 - what was i thinking with +1.5 sets, Rune loves a ret!
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1)
This weeks story about crazy edges in tennis betting from the 2010s comes courtesy of sbobet.
They used to offer games in set 1: odd/even and basically went up 1.90 1.90 on every match.
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4) You could have a match where a tiebreak in set 1 was 40% and then our model made 6-3 to the fav (ie 1 break) around 35% and 6-1 to the fav (ie 2 breaks) around 8%, making the chance of "Odd" around 83%.
🤪
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