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Middle East supply tightness lifted oil prices. USOIL closed above the swing high after holding around the resistance at 101.00. The price shows diverging bullish EMAs, indicating upside potential. Breaking above the resistance at 101.00 may lead USOIL toward the resistance at 106.00.
The euro-dollar consolidated as French fiscal fears and weak Eurozone data offset ECB tightening hopes. EURUSD consolidated below the resistance at 1.1250 and EMA21. The price shows lower swings, reinforcing its downtrend. Breaking below 1.1120 may prompt a drop toward 1.1000.
The Fed’s next move is on the board♟️
The Fed announces its interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC on 28 October 2026, the last decision before the December meeting.
In September, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, to 3.75–4%, and signaled one more hike before the end of the year.
The data since then has been mixed. Inflation rose to 3.7% in September on the back of higher fuel prices, beating forecasts, while core inflation climbed to 2.6% from 2.4%. At the same time, the US economy added just 29,000 jobs.
Markets have, however, lowered expectations for an October rate hike after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at an IMF summit in Bangkok on 16 October that the economy had “broadly conformed” to the Fed’s expectations.
Other officials have said there’s no rush to hike again, and many now expect the next move in December. But Warsh won’t say in advance what the Fed will do, so a surprise isn’t off the table.
Even if rates stay put, the tone of the statement and Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 GMT could shift December expectations and move USD pairs, gold, and US indices.
Hike or hold: which piece do you think the Fed will pick? 👇
Here are the important upcoming news events that could affect your trading.
Learn more: exness.social/4gF2Ndl
No RSI. No MACD. No Fibonacci.
Three Exness Team Pros reveal how they read market structure and price action to find high-probability setups—and why they'd rather sit out than force a trade.
Read more: insights.exness.com/deep-div…
#Trading #MarketStructure #PriceAction #RiskManagement
VOLATILITY ALERT 🚨Hawkish BoC and rising safe-haven demand weigh on the US dollar-Canadian dollar (USDCAD)
Canadian inflation ticked up on energy prices, while core inflation eased. With tariff and energy risks still pointing higher, markets expect the Bank of Canada to hike to 2.5% next week, supporting the Canadian dollar.
In the US, the Fed is expected to hold this month, while a tech selloff is driving demand for long-term Treasuries and weighing on the US dollar.
USTEC broke below 29260 on rising AI capex concerns.
Here's what matters: Meta raised its capex floor to 135–145 bln USD and reported negative free cash flow, fueling broader tech selloffs.
Key level: 28760. Lose it and the index risks extending its downtrend beneath 28240.
XAGUSD fell below both EMAs and 55.30 on Middle East escalation, sparking inflation concerns.
Key driver: Elevated oil prices strengthen the rate-hike case, sustaining downward pressure on gold prices.
Key level: 55.30. Hold below it and the price may decline toward support at 53.20.
The yen strengthened as Japan's inflation fueled Dec BoJ hike hopes. USDJPY plunged below 156.70 after failing to close above EMA120. The price swings lower below diverging bearish EMAs, confirming downward bias. Holding below 156.70 may sink USDJPY toward the support at 155.40.
The pound-dollar steadied despite weak UK consumer demand. GBPUSD retested the support at 1.3360 before rebounding above EMA24. The price stays above bullish EMAs, suggesting upside. Breaking above the resistance at 1.3420 may push GBPUSD toward the resistance at 1.3450.
Rising French yields kept the euro-dollar volatile. EURUSD returned above the support at 1.1210 after breaking below. The price fluctuates near flattening EMAs, signaling consolidation. Remaining above the support at 1.1210 may keep EURUSD within the 1.1210-1.1250 range.
Strong US Treasury demand and falling yields pressured the US dollar index. DXY returned below 101.60 after briefly trading above 101.80 and EMA120. The index shows an unclear structure for a consolidation bias. Returning above 101.60 may keep DXY within the 101.60-101.80 range.



















