Betting on Props 🇷🇸 Partizan & Spurs NBA 432-363 +19.63u WNBA '24: 128-84 +37.79u FIBA 31-19 +8.71u Use ELEK for 25% discount at @propsmadness
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As I promised here it is! Public available tracker, with each bet posted having a Twitter link. As I post a bet, it will be added instantly here and updated after the game ends.
I probably should have done it way earlier, but better now than never!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Play-offs started 2-0 and went dogshit since then
She went over in 6 minutes...
1u Kaitlyn Chen under 4.5 pts +100 DK, -110 Caesars, Fliff
I wouldn't be surprised if she plays as much as 5 minutes; Dream is a horrible matchup, as she lacks size and they dont allow many good-quality spot-up attempts. Allisha Gray playing would make Chen even worse, as it would be really hard to hide her. GSV defense was worse by 10 points per 100 possessions this playoffs, she was hunted but she provided value as both Aces and the Wings are worse defenses than Dream
I think she will see around 11 minutes
Only two things are bad about this for bettors
First one - killing those SGPs, forcing people to play pra/pts+reb/ast+reb/pts+ast unders or nothing in those situations
Second one - we will have to see it, but i wouldn't be surprised if books use this rule to avoid having lines when several players are out, either due to injuries or late-season injury risk management/ tanking
The NBA and prominent sportsbooks have agreed to ban multiple types of bets, per me and @DavidPurdum, such as:
- Parlay bets involving the under on the same player's statistics
- "First of" market; examples: winner of opening tip, an individual's specific shot, rebound, assist, steal
- Under bets on players expected to play less than 12 minutes a game
1u Kaitlyn Chen under 4.5 pts +100 DK, -110 Caesars, Fliff
I wouldn't be surprised if she plays as much as 5 minutes; Dream is a horrible matchup, as she lacks size and they dont allow many good-quality spot-up attempts. Allisha Gray playing would make Chen even worse, as it would be really hard to hide her. GSV defense was worse by 10 points per 100 possessions this playoffs, she was hunted but she provided value as both Aces and the Wings are worse defenses than Dream
I think she will see around 11 minutes
Yes, Dream guards single coverage, I know, and it's not like Chen can't drive, but also Dream, with the addition of Bonner, became insanely lengthy, and Chen doesn't really have anyone to attack unless she is on the court at the same time as Pao-Pao. For which there is a chance that she won't even play
1u DeWanna Bonner over 12.5 pts -110 FD
No Gray for Dream; Bonner will have minutes. For all of the playoffs because of their guards, Liberty allows spot-up while focusing on denying the paint.
She had good games against Liberty in regular season and great g1. I know she is old, but on the other hand, Liberty has liabilities in the guard rotation, while the strongest part of Dream's offense is Canada and Howard. Howard had a horrible scoring game and her shot selection is bad, but Liberty has to put Fiebich there or else she would cook any other perimeter defender.
She played bad and fouls just were not called tbh but i was also taking too much into consideration how regular season h2h played out -1.13u
1u Jackie Young over 18.5 pts -113 FD
I think this is some kind of overcorrection. Wings don't have front court presence at Aja level, so defense for Valkyries was much easier in those series. Still, Wings played efficient offense in the series (their offense died when one of Paige or Arike sat, but 115.25 off rtg with both of them is equal to best in the league. I know small sample and everything, but you all watched Arike torch them)
Valkyries now have much harder task, as there is one dual issue with Aja - Stokes could guard her, but Stokes has huge issues on offense and Aces will exploit that. I don't think Stokes will be able to match Aja minutes. Should open possessions where perimeter play is easier from pressure that Aja creates
I would expect Burton on Chelsea and Gabby on Jackie. Burton is much tougher matchup for Gray than Gabby is for Young. Gray doesn't have first step to create advantage against Burtom.
Also, GSV didn't guard well transition against Wings. Jackie is best in transition. They will surely look into issues they had, but I don't expect perfect play from their defense there
1u Jackie Young over 18.5 pts -113 FD
I think this is some kind of overcorrection. Wings don't have front court presence at Aja level, so defense for Valkyries was much easier in those series. Still, Wings played efficient offense in the series (their offense died when one of Paige or Arike sat, but 115.25 off rtg with both of them is equal to best in the league. I know small sample and everything, but you all watched Arike torch them)
Valkyries now have much harder task, as there is one dual issue with Aja - Stokes could guard her, but Stokes has huge issues on offense and Aces will exploit that. I don't think Stokes will be able to match Aja minutes. Should open possessions where perimeter play is easier from pressure that Aja creates
I would expect Burton on Chelsea and Gabby on Jackie. Burton is much tougher matchup for Gray than Gabby is for Young. Gray doesn't have first step to create advantage against Burtom.
Also, GSV didn't guard well transition against Wings. Jackie is best in transition. They will surely look into issues they had, but I don't expect perfect play from their defense there
Sadly Sophie was unplayable (laughably) -1.24 ❌
1u Sophie Cunningham over 5.5 pts -130 FD, -124 DK
Timpson is not playable, and it leads to the Fever playing small with Cunningham at 4. Should have above 20 minutes this game.
Aces are not a perfect matchup, but with Cunningham at 4 and going small, they can space well enough, and the focus will always be on Caitlin Clark, who had a brutal G2.
While Sophie had a bad G2 in a win, Clark looks for early solutions, and Sophie still should be the main shooter of the team. Raven played great in both games but she is a rookie.
Even in challenging matchups, Sophie was going over this line in the regular season. I understand now the stakes are bigger, but I see a scenario where the Aces would be glad she attacks the closeouts (she had one floater last game and it was kinda ''random bullshit go'' in terms of how it looked haha). Far better for them than anything from Mitchell, Clark or Boston
1u Sophie Cunningham over 5.5 pts -130 FD, -124 DK
Timpson is not playable, and it leads to the Fever playing small with Cunningham at 4. Should have above 20 minutes this game.
Aces are not a perfect matchup, but with Cunningham at 4 and going small, they can space well enough, and the focus will always be on Caitlin Clark, who had a brutal G2.
While Sophie had a bad G2 in a win, Clark looks for early solutions, and Sophie still should be the main shooter of the team. Raven played great in both games but she is a rookie.
Even in challenging matchups, Sophie was going over this line in the regular season. I understand now the stakes are bigger, but I see a scenario where the Aces would be glad she attacks the closeouts (she had one floater last game and it was kinda ''random bullshit go'' in terms of how it looked haha). Far better for them than anything from Mitchell, Clark or Boston
Angel with 2 assists on just 3 potential assists last night, win! ✅
1u Angel Reese under 2.5 assists -118 FD, -112 DK
I know number is not high, but against Mystics she had 0, 5, 8 and 2 potential assists (last one being g1). Angel has 4.9 potential assists per game (so on average it would need 60% fg% on her assists)
In g1, she shot 4/15 from the field and Dream had 103 offensive rating with her on the court (120 off rtg with her off). Dream won those minutes on defense. I dont think the Mystics will change much in their approach on defense with her, even though Angel has improved this season at the rim in comparison to prior years. I think Mystics will again challenge Reese to shoot
I dont really have a relevant graph to be honest
1u Angel Reese under 2.5 assists -118 FD, -112 DK
I know number is not high, but against Mystics she had 0, 5, 8 and 2 potential assists (last one being g1). Angel has 4.9 potential assists per game (so on average it would need 60% fg% on her assists)
In g1, she shot 4/15 from the field and Dream had 103 offensive rating with her on the court (120 off rtg with her off). Dream won those minutes on defense. I dont think the Mystics will change much in their approach on defense with her, even though Angel has improved this season at the rim in comparison to prior years. I think Mystics will again challenge Reese to shoot
I dont really have a relevant graph to be honest
Chelsea Gray's aura made this bet cash (lmao) ✅
Just 9 minutes, i expected her to lose minutes but not this much. Even though Aces didn't guard her in this game (6 fga in just 9 minutes), Fever again struggled with her, so it was a good call from Stephanie White
1u Makayla Timpson under 6.5 pts -120 DK, -128 FD Caesars
I dont think she plays over 30 minutes; she has several limitations on offense, and even though the Fever situation with bigs is dire, she isn't a player that fixes it.
She had worst +/- in whole squad (-26). Wilson blocked her two times, and she shot 1/4 at the rim
Aces were good at denying transition and the rim in the regular season, and rim is where Timpson scores - 84% of her points are there
A'ja was in the paint most of the time; the Aces wanted Boston to shoot threes and trusted in guards to not give up really easy pull-up attempts. There were possessions with Talbot guarding pnr with A'ja camping around the paint
1u Makayla Timpson under 6.5 pts -120 DK, -128 FD Caesars
I dont think she plays over 30 minutes; she has several limitations on offense, and even though the Fever situation with bigs is dire, she isn't a player that fixes it.
She had worst +/- in whole squad (-26). Wilson blocked her two times, and she shot 1/4 at the rim
Aces were good at denying transition and the rim in the regular season, and rim is where Timpson scores - 84% of her points are there
A'ja was in the paint most of the time; the Aces wanted Boston to shoot threes and trusted in guards to not give up really easy pull-up attempts. There were possessions with Talbot guarding pnr with A'ja camping around the paint
WNBA 2026 regular season record : 17-21 -7.41u
The last two years (in terms of most of the things for me) are genuinely dogshit, and if I am honest, I simply was not in a mental state to do anything but vegetate for most of the time. I dont know how I didn't kill myself; I pretty much ruined my life in several different ways, and I know that I am doing some kind of ''anti-advertisement,'' but I just want to be honest and say what was going on with me. It wasn't all black there were some good things, but simply all that was accumulating since my childhood bit me, while also I didn't help myself and also did some things on top of it. (which is all connected). But it is what it is; I can't change the past, i can only change the now and future.
Since August 24th (past month) , record on everything was 18-12 and +3.25u (counting two bets on Rytas vs Tigers).
It moved in the right direction, but I don't know where I'm headed. I dont think I'll have a group for the NBA next season; I will probably post picks here, and I will try to be more transparent and honest as one of the biggest issues over the past two years was procrastination from tracking and trying to avoid the stress i felt whenever any single bet was lost
Still thinking: should or will I do non-US basketball, as it is something I bet on personally for a long time
WNBA playoffs start; good luck to everyone!
1u Angel Reese over 15.5 pts -120 FD
Liberty isn't a perfect matchup, but Angel only struggles against teams that are really focused on denying paint points. Liberty focus on defense is denying PNR ball handler points, and while they aren't free-walk in the paint, Stewart being questionable is huge (i believe she will be out but we will see)
Angel has two overs against Liberty. Liberty is comfortable guarding her 1v1 and Dream plays to win. Angel currently has 5 games in a row with 8+ fta and averages 26% usage. It could be nasty, but i think the line should be 16,5
1u Sabrina Ionescu over 14.5 pts -120 FD, -118 caesars
I started to write it up before news of Stewart being downgraded to questionable
Even if Liberty decide to rest Stewart and to not give much shit about the game (as chances of both Wings and Washington winning their games and sending Liberty down to 8 are solid) Sabrina needs rhythm, and i dont think they will underplay her tonight. I may be wrong but thats basically it
Dream allow most PNR ball-handler points in the league, while she barely went over in the last one, she should have usage
1u Nneka Ogwumike over 17.5 points -105 caesars, -114 FD
(who has dk 1.25u 16.5 over)
I know the matchup is far from perfect, Aces with A'ja, but this is Nneka's last nationally televised game and 2nd last game of her career. She definitely will have minutes even if the Aces trash the Sparks
Again, no Brink and Hamby. Without Hamby, Nneka has higher usage by 2%. In the last 10 games, Nneka has 25% usage (had around 22% for the season).
Aces, as I said, aren't perfect matchup - they dont allow transition, spot-up, and rim, but they aren't really something like the Valkyries or Mystics (who dont miss opportunities to suffocate opponents). Nneka had one over and one under vs Aces. I think usage will be there so that she can go over even with mediocre or bad efficiency
