EA Maritime Analytics is tracking the first cargo of Russian diesel heading to the US since Trump’s 9 October announcement. MR tanker Agioi Fanendes (IMO 9798375) sails from Primorsk today with a cargo of ultra-low-sulphur diesel, confirmed by our market sources. Her AIS shows New York as the destination, with arrival expected on 10 November. Cargo size: around 298,000 barrels (40,000 tonnes). On 9 October, Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that. #MaritimeAnalytics #Diesel #CargoTracking

The critique of energy research is familiar. Analysts talking to contacts. Writing up what the market is already saying. We ran our European gas and LNG forecasts through five years of data to find out if that's true. 225,000 forecast points. May 2021 to August 2026. Every forecast scored against the actual outturn. The result: - 4.4% average error on European gas supply, one month ahead. That beats a simple seasonal benchmark by 40%. - 94% of European storage forecasts called the direction correctly, three to six months ahead. - 2.5% average error on global LNG exports, one to three months ahead. We ran this through the 2021-22 European gas crisis. Supply forecasts were more accurate during the crisis than in normal conditions. We ran it through the Strait of Hormuz disruption in February 2026. European balance accuracy was unaffected. A forecast that only works in calm conditions is not a forecast. This is five years of evidence that ours works. Download the full review document here: ow.ly/mZ8351003Ll #EnergyAspects #NaturalGas #LNG #EnergyResearch

Our Maritime Analytics models US refined product exports from vessel movements, producing a month-ahead estimate that is updated as the month progresses, before the published EIA data. We compared the diesel estimates with EIA figures across 18 target months. - Average error, one month ahead: 6.8% - Share of months within 10% of the EIA figure: 71% - Cumulative volume error across the 18 months: -0.8% indicating negligible bias. The period includes the February 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption, when European and Latin American buyers turned to the US Gulf Coast and export volumes became markedly more volatile. Average error during the disruption was still 9.2%, the same as in the preceding months. Download the full backtest document here: ow.ly/tOwp50ZZHRv #MaritimeAnalytics #OilProducts #EnergyData

Energy security, not clean energy or sustainability, is now the number one concern for governments. That was the clear message from @ea_amrita, Founder & Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, who joined ministers, delegates and industry leaders at the @IEF_Dialogue last week. Her key takeaways: • Energy security has moved to the top of the agenda. Clean energy and sustainability still matter, but security dominated the plenary. • When policy swings too far, markets pay. In Europe, the pendulum swung too far one way: governments stopped prioritising energy security and investment in fossil fuels. The result was shortages and high prices. • Dialogue and data transparency prevent those mistakes. Without dialogue between producers, consumers and governments, policymakers can commit to one direction and miss where the real pain points are. The IEF’s role in data transparency “just cannot be done by anyone else.” Our thanks to the IEF and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the fascinating and insightful meeting. #IEF17 #EnergyPolicy #OilAndGas

The market caught up today: Washington is weighing sanctions relief for shadow fleet tankers to bring down record freight rates. Our clients had this insight on Monday. When the US energy secretary floated the idea at the World Petroleum Congress on 12 October, EA Live told clients within hours that it would not fix freight overnight. Most US-sanctioned tankers are old. Most sanctioned capacity sits under Iran sanctions. And most tankers sanctioned over Russian or Venezuelan links have kept trading anyway. On Tuesday, our Dirty Freight Weekly put numbers on it using EA Maritime Analytics: fleet age, sanctions programme and idle tonnage. It also flagged the one narrow case where relief could free up a few extra ships for Hormuz shuttle runs. Today that view is in the wider market coverage. Through EA Live, clients have had it since Monday. #Freight #OilMarkets #Tankers

Yesterday at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, @ea_amrita, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, spoke on Strategic Session 9, “The Global Oil Markets: What’s Driving Growth”. The central point: the market anchors on the futures price, but end product prices are much higher and have become largely disconnected from it. That gap matters for anyone making investment or pricing decisions off the screen, and it has huge implications for policymakers trying to curb inflation. The discussion also delved into forecasting challenges as government intervention has distorted price signals, the underlying ballooning debt in Western economies and more countries looking to energy sources that can be secured within their borders. Thank you to @WPC_Energy and the Saudi Ministry of Energy for hosting, to moderator Mohammad Kurdi, and to fellow panellists @Bob_McNally, Paul Horsnell and @anasalhajji for the discussion #WPCEnergyCongress #OilMarkets #OOTT

Three sessions. Three days. From global energy policy to oil market fundamentals. Dr @ea_amrita, Founder of Energy Aspects, will speak at the IEF Leadership Roundtable and the 25th WPC Energy Congress from 11–13 October. Sunday | IEF Leadership Roundtable Joining ministers and CEOs for a discussion moderated by Dr Dan Yergin on the perspectives, choices and trade-offs shaping global energy pathways. Monday | Women’s leadership in energy Taking part in a panel on women’s leadership across the energy industry. Tuesday | Oil market fundamentals Discussing the key forces driving oil market growth. Join the conversation on the key issues shaping the global energy industry. #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #womeninenergy

The data behind the op-ed: ow.ly/EE9B50ZVKkT Brent futures now account for only 60–70% of the landed cost of crude in Asia, compared with around 90% normally. Here’s the data behind it: ow.ly/1rSc50ZVKkS

Reports of a potential diesel export ban are stirring markets, putting renewed focus on a theme we flagged six weeks ago: crude volatility will be driven by geopolitical headlines, but refined products still have to price in the underlying tightness. In early August, WTI was below $80 and investors were positioning for a glut. We argued that record crack spreads were masking persistent inflation pressure even as oil prices remained locked in a range. On August 4th, we changed our Fed call to a 25 bp September hike. On September 16th, the FOMC delivered a 25 bp hike. Chair Warsh pointed to the same overlooked signal: crack spreads and the inflation pressure they carry. Energy prices are reshaping the rates story. Get the Energy Aspects view on the implications for markets, inflation and the macro outlook. Request an EA 360 demo today (link in comments). #Macro #FederalReserve #Oil

We flagged this last Friday. The satellites confirmed it on Monday. On 18 September, our market soundings showed Saudi Arabia had secured 30 vessels for Hormuz shuttle operations, with loadings into the Middle East Gulf approaching two a day. By Monday, 21 September, satellite tracking confirmed the move: total Hormuz vessel loadings had climbed to 5.6 a day, the highest since the conflict began, led by Saudi Arabia. The call came first. The satellite feed confirmed it three days later. What's the next call sitting in our data that the market hasn't caught up to yet? Start your 2-week trial today to find out: ow.ly/HpTf50ZQg3u #OIl #Hormuz #OOTT

"What is really driving the market, what is driving yields, bonds, everything, is diesel prices, and that continues to remain at record highs" @ea_amrita, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, was on @CNBC yesterday discussing the driving factors of oil markets. Alongside discussing the Middle East conflict, Amrita also spoke on oil flows, crude prices, and even though we've seen pullbacks over the past couple of months, the flow for prices is higher. Watch the full interview here: ow.ly/19Ug50ZQ4NT #OilMarkets #OOTT #EnergyAspects@ea

Could the Hormuz LNG tanker crisis keep EU gas prices at winter-crisis levels for months to come? Energy Aspects' Global Head of Gas, Livia Gallarati, joined Bloomberg earlier today to break down where TTF is headed next. Starting at 18:00, Livia also covered: - Why EU gas prices could hold near current levels this winter if Hormuz LNG disruption drags on for another 3-6 months - Why TTF isn't likely to hit $100 in the near term - Whether Qatari LNG exports can rise - China's role in gas demand, and the global demand picture Watch the full interview: ow.ly/GZiQ50ZOmSt #EnergyAspects #TTF #Hormuz #LNG

Daily read on the transatlantic gasoline arb, built from a full blend optimisation across 20+ ARA components. Non-linear octane, RVP, updated every session. Already feeding our Weekly Oil Products call. #RBOB #GasolineMarkets #OOTT