Excited to share—we’re now SEBI Registered! After 2+ years of consistently sharing insights on X, we received several inquiries about launching our own research services. So, we decided to go ahead, get SEBI Registered, and launch our dedicated Research Desk, focused on uncovering high-growth opportunities in the Smallcap & Midcap space. We're now also live on Smallcase! There’s been a lot going on in the background over the last few months. Thanks for the continued support—we’ll keep striving to add value!❤️

At this point, expectations are close to zero! Forget the LTCG cut, just hoping we don't end up with another STT hike in the name of market reforms 💀

Blockbuster quarter from Ather Energy - Total Income 🔼62% YoY - 1,527 Cr - Volumes 🔼42% YoY - 93,211 units - EBITDA margin improved to 4.9% vs -9.6% YoY - Turned PAT turned positive at 1.26 Cr vs (154 Cr) YoY Demand remains extremely strong, with pre-orders more than doubling to 1.80 lakh & Hosur operating at 98% utilisation during peak production Total installed capacity to reach ~11.4 lakh units by Q2FY28 Street reacting very positively.

Most Solar Stocks Have Witnessed Significant Valuation De-rating! Waaree Energies EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed from nearly 50x at its peak to 9x currently! key monitorable going forward is sustainability of margins despite rising capacity

Shakti Pumps - A Good Case Study of How a Balance Sheet Can Deteriorate! ⚠️ Some Concerning Developments: Trade Receivables jumped 54% from 1,276 Cr to 1,964 Cr in just 6 months! Operating Cash Flow remained deeply negative at -448 Cr in H1FY27 Cash & Cash Equivalents declined sharply from 439 Cr to just 24 Cr Total Borrowings almost doubled from 486 Cr to 939 Cr Operating profit before working capital changes also declined sharply from 284 Cr to 159 Cr Receivables are increasing significantly, cash balances are getting depleted & the company is becoming increasingly dependent on borrowings to fund its operations

Nifty's Historic 20% Upper Circuit in 2009 May 18, 2009 was one of the craziest days in Indian stock market history Interestingly, the exact opposite reaction is now unfolding in Brazil! 🇧🇷 Brazil's presidential election on October 25, 2026, delivered a major surprise President Lula secured re-election with 51.8% of the vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro Brazilian equities had rallied ahead of the election But the unexpected result have triggered aggressive selling! Brazil's EWZ ETF trading overseas crashed almost 20% in after hours trading A lot of mayhem has unfolded in international markets lately

Last 5 years would have humbled a lot of investors There was a time when the playbook looked simple: - Buy a blue chip - Hold it forever - Forget about quarterly numbers - Expect 20% CAGR The era of lazy investing is being seriously challenged Businesses, competitive advantages & industry structures are changing faster than ever Some of the strongest businesses, established market leaders & supposedly recession proof sectors have delivered negligible or even negative returns Look at how many supposedly strong narratives have been shaken: 1. FMCG : Cash rich businesses, recession resistant demand, predictable earnings & whatnot! When REV growth remains in single digits for years, even exceptional ROCE & strong cash generation cannot justify premium valuations indefinitely A company cannot keep trading at 50-60x P/E forever without meaningful earnings growth Eventually, valuations have to catch up with the underlying growth reality! For years, the biggest moat for the sector was distribution Thousands of distributors + lakhs of retail outlets made it extremely difficult for a new brand to compete with established FMCG giants Quick Commerce gives a new brand access to consumers almost instantly D2C brands can build awareness online, launch nationally & reach customers without spending decades building physical distribution The incumbents are still extremely strong businesses, but distribution alone is no longer the moat it once was 2. IT Services : The Traditional Growth Model Is Under Pressure For decades, Indian IT companies benefited from global outsourcing & labour cost arbitrage More global outsourcing → More employees → More REV → More profits But AI is potentially changing the economics of the entire industry The traditional headcount led growth model is being challenged, while discretionary spending remains weak The old narrative cannot simply be extrapolated 3. Paints : Even Strong Entry Barriers Can Be Challenged The paints industry was once considered one of the strongest consumer franchises Distribution + dealer relationships + brand + tinting machines created enormous entry barriers Then a large new player entered with massive capacity, aggressive dealer expansion & pricing Suddenly an industry believed to have almost impenetrable barriers had to deal with a completely new competitive environment Again, the businesses didn't suddenly become bad The competitive structure changed And these are just a few examples! A company that was a market leader 5 years ago may still be a market leader today, but its growth prospects, competitive advantages & valuations could be completely different You have to do the hard work! Track quarterly results, management commentary, competitive intensity, market share & changing industry dynamics Most importantly, keep questioning your original investment thesis.

Reality Check in Stock Markets 👀 Looked at companies with: - Market Cap >10,000 Cr - 5 Year Stock CAGR <5% 78 out of these 130 companies have actually delivered a negative 5 year CAGR And many are some of the biggest, most well known names in the market 5 Yr CAGR - Reliance Industries: -0.5% - HDFC Bank: -3.5% - Infosys: -7.5% - TCS: -6.2% - Wipro: -10.7% - Hindustan Unilever: -4.9% - Asian Paints: -4.9% - Bajaj Finserv: -2.1% - Kotak Mahindra Bank: -0.5% - Avenue Supermarts: -7.1% - SBI Cards: -13.5% - IRCTC: -12.0% - Dabur: -9.0% - Tata Elxsi: -8.8% - Godrej Properties: -8.6% - PI Industries: -7.5% - HDFC Life: -5.4% - Berger Paints: -5.3% - Shree Cement: -3.9% - Ambuja Cements: -1.2% - Godrej Consumer: -2.3% - Page Industries: -2.0% - Biocon: -0.6% - Colgate: +0.7% - ICICI Lombard: +1.1% - SRF: +1.8% - Tech Mahindra: +2.8% - ITC: +3.1% - Bajaj Finance: +3.4% - Tata Consumer: +3.8% - JSW Energy: +3.9% - HCL Technologies: +4.0% - Nestle India: +4.1% - Britannia: +4.2% - Tata Steel: +4.5% And the full list includes: Whirlpool India, Adani Total Gas, Gujarat Energy, Crompton Greaves Consumer, Aarti Industries, P&G Hygiene, Kansai Nerolac, SBI Cards, Bandhan Bank, Trident, ACC, IRCTC, Vinati Organics, Jubilant FoodWorks, Sammaan Capital, Wipro, Tata Chemicals, Atul, Deepak Nitrite, Indraprastha Gas, Dabur India, Tata Elxsi, Nuvoco Vistas, LTM, Godrej Properties, Adani Energy Solutions, Syngene International, PI Industries, Blue Dart Express, Bayer CropScience, Infosys, ICICI Prudential Life, United Breweries, Avenue Supermarts, Metropolis Healthcare, Emami, IndusInd Bank, Pfizer, Honeywell Automation, TCS, Ramco Cements, UPL, Container Corporation, HDFC Life, Berger Paints, UTI AMC, Mphasis, Hatsun Agro, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, PVR INOX, Gland Pharma, Voltas, Havells India, Shree Cement, Dalmia Bharat, HDFC Bank, Balkrishna Industries, Astral, L&T Technology Services, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Cohance Lifesciences, Godrej Consumer Products, Kajaria Ceramics, Bajaj Finserv, Page Industries, BASF India, Sumitomo Chemical, Ambuja Cements, Natco Pharma, Devyani International, Biocon, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, Info Edge, DCM Shriram, Amara Raja Energy, Punjab & Sind Bank, Alembic Pharma, Adani Green, New India Assurance, Mahanagar Gas, Sun TV Network, Godrej Agrovet, Dr Lal PathLabs, Colgate-Palmolive, Zydus Wellness, ICICI Lombard, Brookfield India REIT, Patanjali Foods, CAMS, Chambal Fertilisers, V-Guard Industries, Vodafone Idea, SRF, Zensar Technologies, 3M India, IRB Infrastructure, Cyient, Tech Mahindra, Century Plyboards, Grindwell Norton, ITC, JM Financial, Yes Bank, Sona BLW Precision, Bajaj Finance, Carborundum Universal, IndiGrid, KIOCL, Nazara Technologies, Tata Consumer, LIC Housing Finance, Embassy Office Parks REIT, JSW Energy, Tata Communications, HCL Technologies, Central Bank of India, Nestle India, Sundram Fasteners, Britannia Industries, Petronet LNG, CIE Automotive, Graphite India, Affle, Abbott India, Max Financial, Tata Steel, Endurance Technologies & Gillette India.

One Important Concept to Understand in Lending! Closing AUM = Opening AUM + Disbursements - Principal Repayments How can an NBFC report 75% AUM growth despite disbursements growing just 5%? 🤔 (Explained with a detailed illustration below ⏬) Similarly, an NBFC can report strong disbursement growth, but AUM growth can remain significantly lower! How? The answer lies in higher repayments, prepayments & shorter loan tenures.

Rajeev Jain shared some interesting insights on Gold Loans during Bajaj Finance's Q2FY27 concall! Bajaj Finance has already built a 24,000 Cr Gold Loan book (+105% YoY) It is now among the top 5 Gold Loan lenders in the NBFC sector - Gold Loans should be a “profit builder”, not an “AUM builder” - Bajaj experimented with short tenure Gold Loans, but these created unnecessary technical delinquencies when customers missed maturity dates - 1,047 Cr of Gold Loans moved into Stage 2 during the quarter largely because of this structure - Management stopped these short tenure schemes from August itself - 550 Cr had already moved back to Stage 1 by the time of the concall - Company now prefers longer 9-12 month tenures while still allowing customers to repay earlier - 99% of Gold Loan customers currently use bullet repayment - Management does not want to build an auction driven Gold Loan franchise - It is willing to accept slower AUM growth rather than push higher LTVs or products that could unnecessarily stress customers - Average ticket size remains ~2.4-2.5 lakh with LTV around 75%, including interest Some excellent insights into the nuances of the Gold Loan business!

Strong set of numbers from Lumax Auto in #Q2FY27 - REV growth: 35% YoY - PAT growth before minority interest: 50% YoY But H2FY27 is where growth rates are likely to cool off Management has already highlighted that Q1 & Q2 benefited from a low base, while Q3 & Q4 will face a much tougher comparison as H2FY26 had already seen hyper growth post GST rationalisation

Optical fibre companies is going through a very strong upcycle Sterlite Technologies - Q2FY27 REV 🔼145% - 2,529 Cr Operational EBITDA: 685 Cr PAT: 517 Cr vs 4 Cr YoY Reported EBITDA includes a one time ~161 Cr gain from a US tariff refund Order book reached a record 35,274 Cr Data Centres contributed ~33% of H1FY27 REV Management is targeting ~50% contribution in FY27 STL continues to target: - FY29 REV: ~20,000 Cr - EBITDA margin: >30% Margin ambition was increased from >27% earlier Management is also planning ~1,000 Cr annual capex through FY27-29 & ~50% expansion in fibre, preform & cable capacities HFCL - Q2FY27 REV 🔼144% - 2,542 Cr EBITDA 🔼224% - 658 Cr PAT 🔼448% - 394 Cr Robust Order Book: 28,900 Cr Capacity Expansion plans - Optical Fibre capacity: 28 Mn fibre km → 34 Mn → 43 Mn - Cable capacity: 34 Mn fibre km → 63 Mn The company is also investing in its own preform capacity, which should increase backward integration & potentially improve margins further FY27 guidance upgraded massively : 20% → 40% → 80% 🔥 Initial FY27 REV growth guidance: ~20% After Q1: ~40% After Q2: at least 80% HFCL had earlier targeted 10,000 Cr REV by FY29 Management now believes this milestone can be achieved significantly earlier Defence becoming the next growth engine HFCL is targeting 500 Cr of Defence & Aerospace REV in FY27 Both companies are clearly in one of the strongest earnings cycles they have seen in years

Defence Stocks have witnessed massive correction Shipbuilders have seen one of the biggest cracks: - Cochin Shipyard is down 62% from ATH - Mazagon Dock is down 51% from ATH - Garden Reach is down 47% from ATH Several other names are also down 20-50%

Was looking at NBFCs - median correction is 25% Many lenders are now trading close to some of their lowest valuation zones Bajaj Fin, Chola Fin, Muthoot Fin all trading at the lowest band of valuations

KEI & Polycab both stocks have gone through a massive valuation reset: KEI Industries: P/E peaked at 75x, now around 34x TTM Polycab: P/E peaked at 63x, now 35x TTM Both are now trading around ~30x on fwd est

FD Investors Right Now 🕺😂

Crazy Amount of Liquidity Trapped in the Jio IPO! The issue is already subscribed 8x & has crossed 1 Cr applications milestone It will be interesting to see how much of this liquidity flows back into secondary markets!

A Very Interesting Time to Study the Financial Sector! 👀 Several financial stocks are now trading near their historically low valuations, across Gold Finance, MFIs, SFBs, Housing Finance & MSME This is a good time to go through quarterly concalls & understand what is actually happening on the ground - ICICI Bank - SBI - Bajaj Finance - CreditAccess Grameen - SBFC Finance - Arman Financial If you are tracking the financial sector, these concalls are certainly worth listening to, as management teams share a lot of valuable insights! A few have already reported their results, while others are yet to report

🚨 CreditAccess Grameen is now trading at its lowest ever valuation Stock is currently trading at around 1.8x P/B Interestingly, every time the stock has slipped below 2x P/B, it has eventually marked a bottom