Eurofaultlines (@Eurofaultlines) profile picture
Joined November 2012
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Median US IG net leverage is just under 2.5x. For European corporates, IG net leverage was 1.8x at the end '15.
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P/E multiples have gone up ytd due to EPS downgrades. P/E multiples are back to the top of their historical ranges
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A big gap has opened between the US Economis Surprise index and the US equity market
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HFs have covered their equity shorts and have moved outright long
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QE encourages national treasuries to raise the maturity-at-issuance, elevating the amount of duration sold
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CDX tranches equity correlation – market pricing of default risk vs systemic risk - has fallen to multi-year lows
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the trend toward a more US-like funding model is clearly underway in Europe after an acceleration in 2009.
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China cement production is spiking up like in the "good old days"
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China power consumption yoy moving back up to growth rates last seen in 2014
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China residential real estate investments
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China has stabilized. Here are Komatsu excavators operating hours, y/y by region
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Japanese investors can earn 80bps of fixed yield on their JPY by buying a 10-year $ bank bond on fully hedged basis
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If Japanese investors want to buy corp bonds they are forced to look overseas as their corp bond market is too small
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Nikkei estimates that the top-10 Japanese Life Insurance companies alone plan to buy $46.6bn of foreign bonds in the current fiscal year
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70bn of the 200bn of italian NPL are held by Intesa and Unicredit
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US high grade spreads versus yields
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The bulk of GPIF-related reallocation appears to have already taken place
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Steel, mining and retails/wholesale - these are the risky sectors in the Chinese corporate debt segment (source IMF)
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Since 2014, EM countries have issued more than €65bn of EUR sovereign bonds encouraged by the Fed/ECB divergence
Corporate Hybrids SUB/SEN ratio 6 year highs as the ECB excludes sub debt from its purchase program
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