The final adopter of Sports Betting Twitter, circa mid-September, 2022.
Joined September 2022
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The regulation of Prediction Markets by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is opposed by 44 states' attorney generals.
Why?
The answer may may be found in how much state governments have in common with offshore & street bookies, detailed in our latest whiteboard video.
Bears win despite Patriots 7.6-6.1 yards per play edge. Pats 48 yard end-of-half dump off TD responsible for a full yard of that.
Game’s only turnover was Maye’s end zone INT.
Low YPPlay for Bears given their 8 plays of 21 yards or more, which success rate and DVOA won’t like.
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
94.3% win percent on a punt isn't even remotely close. The kick was ballsy as Hell, but these models cannot handle endgames and we need to stop pretending that they can.
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
A full-circle moment in Las Vegas history. ✨
Tonight, two generations of Las Vegas visionaries came face to face.
Following @NeonMuseum’s “Reflections of the Mirage”, @DerekJStevens met Steve Wynn, the man whose vision helped shape modern Las Vegas and inspired Derek’s own journey in building #CircaLasVegas.
From the visionary who redefined the Strip to the man revitalizing Downtown, this was more than an introduction.
A moment of mutual admiration, respect, and a shared love for Las Vegas. 💙
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
Ben Johnson and Josh McDaniels could not treat 2nd downs more differently.
2nd and 1-2:
Ben is the *pass* heaviest coach this century, likely in league history. Treats it as a 50/50 situation.
McDaniels is 88% run here.
2nd and 7-10:
Johnson is the *run* heaviest in the league. 53% run this year and hovering around 50 percent for his career. Again treats it as a 50/50 coin flip.
McDaniels is 79% pass.
Two totally opposite approaches.
I’ve done a decent amount of non-technical work in InfoSec/Cyber and know a lot of smart people in the sector. I’ve never sensed such a level of concern as I’ve heard over the past 24 hours. It is a dangerous moment.
Media is quiet on this. So here is my semi-informed take:
PHP is a scripting language favored by developers for three decades. It is known to have a major security flaw that allows outsiders to take over a website/system. Previously deemed too difficult to exploit to worry about, Attacking AI agents have changed that.
For 24 hours the InfoSec pros I know have been in a frenzied race to patch the flaw before the hackers get in.
Nothing on Washington Post, CNN, etc. The 44th story down the page on NYTimes. Plenty on Senate polls and other political BS.
Is the media this clueless or are they keeping it quiet for national security reasons? Both are possible.
Be careful what you click on today.
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
👀
Wedgewood’s fake Wisconsin poll put David Crowley at 9%. Within 15 minutes his Kalshi price fell from 23 cents to 13, and $45,000 in new money poured into the market. Crowley won the primary.
One fabricated number moved a real election market. New from @BETINT_ai :
open.substack.com/pub/betbre…
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
The Ohio Casino Control Commission has banned a bettor from its sports gambling market for allegedly making threats to Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider during the 2025 World Series.
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
By DVOA, this is the Kansas City Chiefs' best start through 5 games since Mahomes' first year as the starter.
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
Yes he went to get his gun but he’s a good run defender
#Titans HC Robert Saleh with a passionate defense of Jordan Elliott following his release after going to his car to retrieve a gun.
“I will stand on the table for Jordan’s character. Unfortunately, rules are rules with regard to guns on property. And sometimes it’s far greater than the knee-jerk reaction of kicking somebody when they’re down. My message to 31 other teams would be if you need a helluva run-stopping D-tackle that can help you on a playoff run, give me a call. I’ll tell you everything you need to know about him. He’s a good man. Had a terrible lapse in judgment that I recognize as a call for help more than a criminal act. It’s unfortunate the way it went down. As far as Jordan’s concerned and the locker room and all that, I think people see it differently here than the knee-jerk reaction of the world.”
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
REAL prediction market volume (excluding parlays) from last Saturday :)
Courtesy of @volumescout
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
The unintended consequences
The majority of players only care about getting paid.
I’m convinced that why the Washington quarterback situation has played out so poorly this year.
Fewer and fewer players really care about the game of football and care more about stackin’ bills. 💸
Worth two minutes of your time to hear Jimmy Rogers lay bare one of the main ills facing big-time college sports and the athletes themselves.
Iowa State Daily's @henry_annen asked Rogers what he needs from new AD Jared Benko to elevate Iowa State football.
Good stuff.
Kevin O'Neill retweeted
Great coach, this framing misses the point. If you have a model and process that tells the coach to go for this 51% of the time that is nonsense. Not blaming Kyle here because if that’s how it is being presented that is off.
It really is as simple as having a win probability threshold and when the margin is large enough you should go for it essentially every time. When the margin is closer there is more room for factoring in subjective feel.
They went for a 4th and 3 in the first quarter that was a small win at best (ESPN had it as a 0.6% win). The best in game communication would convey 4th and 1-2 differently than 4th and 3 in that situation.
Simply saying 4th and 3 or less is a go on the headset there is a bad process, because 4th and 1 may be a big win while 4th and 3 is marginal at best.
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table
“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.”
“As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”
“But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”
Troy Aikman: “Analytics is a good way to lose your job as a head coach.”
Logan Ryan: “Mike McCarthy should have called time out earlier.”
Unsurprising. I’ve always been puzzled by Aikman’s #1 role while Ryan seems on top of things every time I hear him call a game.
The Steelers should have called timeout at ~35 seconds on the game clock prior to the Bucs 4th down field goal attempt. They ultimately waited until 13 seconds were left which does not make too much sense.
If they called timeout at 35 seconds, Aaron Rodgers would have got the ball back with 30 seconds and a timeout with a good chance to win the game in regulation.
