Irish-born, currently in U.S., dual citizen. Author, musician, opinionated, prone to mouthing off. I care about issues, not politics. Éire i mo chroí.
United States Nomad
Joined May 2022
- Tweets13.7K
- Following404
- Followers444
- Likes7.7K
Take the time to look at this, I promise it's worth it. There's no universe in which the 2026 elections were organic.
THE 15% BAND
Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.
The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.
One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024
For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.
The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%
Variation explained: 88%
What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.
The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.
Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.
What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.
A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.
The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.
Leftist knobs are crawling out of their basements with new confidence and they're even worse than the last time they felt enabled. I hate blocking people, don't want to live in an echo chamber, but timeline hygiene might require it.
Cailín Maith 🇮🇪 🇺🇸 retweeted
Anyone pushing the massive "Republican crossover vote" theory for what happened on Tuesday is delusional. I'm trusting NBC's exit poll, and I will keep citing it till I'm blue in the face.
Another candidate who wasn't even running won just because he was on the ballot as a Democrat, but it was totally organic.
Republicans lost so badly last night that a Democrat who had quit his state House race in Iowa due to health problems back in September won anyway.
Eric Armstrong (D) easily beat Keith Jones (R) in a lean-right seat.
After winning the election, Armstrong says he will try his best to represent his people but reminded them that he still has health problems.
"I’m going to do my best to represent... But I still have health issues; that’s what I’m struggling with," he said, according to The New York Times.
Back in September, Armstrong said he had personal health issues that required him to back out of the race.
"Our District deserves a representative who can give 100 percent of their energy to this race," he said at the time.
He won anyway.
Absolutely brutal night for Republicans.
Cailín Maith 🇮🇪 🇺🇸 retweeted
I want you to watch this, and watch this again, on repeat until it is seared into your brain. Then I want you to remember it next April 15th when you’re writing a check to the IRS. 😡
Cailín Maith 🇮🇪 🇺🇸 retweeted
Here is something that might help. I am doing an audit of a few states and found the same oddities you did.
DM me if you need more context.
OHIO
Same pattern.
Your Republican candidate for Auditor had almost 300,000 more votes than your Republican governor or Senate candidate.
Must have been all those "Auditor" yard signs.
I will say (because the fraud deniers will) that the independent candidates did siphon off an unusual number of votes. But that in itself is suspicious. People do not split their tickets that often.
Cailín Maith 🇮🇪 🇺🇸 retweeted
The pattern continues all the way back to 1960!!!
The raw vote count has never increased for a midterm after a Presidential election in Texas since 1960.
This time, the 2026 Midterms, that happened for Democrats, and the increase was a huge 400,000.
Let that sink in.
Uh huh.
Let me tell you something absolutely BONKERS from last night’s midterms…
Democrat Ericka Lomick just “won” Texas House District 93 despite being a convicted felon who suspended her campaign months ago.
She pleaded guilty in 2011 to federal charges including mortgage-fraud conspiracy, bank fraud, and money laundering. Her sentence? 63 months in federal prison.
On her candidate paperwork, she checked the box claiming she had not been finally convicted of a felony. After her criminal record surfaced in September, she suspended her campaign and stopped running.
But Texas election deadlines had already passed, so her name remained on the ballot for both the regular general election and the special election.
And voters still elected her by roughly 51–49%.
Here’s the kicker: Under Texas law, a final felony conviction generally makes someone ineligible to hold office unless they’ve been pardoned or had their disabilities released.
Meaning she can’t actually serve. Her “victory” simply creates a vacancy and triggers yet another special election.
A convicted federal fraudster who quit campaigning still got elected to the Texas House.
Let that absolutely sink in.
I mentioned this before. It's worth mentioning again. 1.4M more Republicans turned out than in 2022. The narrative that the right is punishing its own side is a complete fucking lie. When did we last see tens of millions of Democrats appear out of nowhere?
Holy shit the public press is so thoroughly fucked. If I saw a headline that read "water is wet" from some of these ass rags I would have to check because at this point it feels more likely I've been delusional my whole life than a trad news headline is in sync with reality
I've already stated this but Republicans didn't stay home. This wasn't a failure of Republican voters, it was a miraculous 10M MORE Democrat voters showing up than in 2018, almost 20M more than in '22. It's fraud, people.
🚨 Another red flag is showing up in the midterm election results:
They are LYING to us when they say republicans didn’t show up to vote. The numbers prove republicans not only voted like they normally do, but actually gained more voters than previous midterms.
2022 vs 2026 House vote totals (projected):
Republicans
In 2022: 54.2M
in 2026: ~55.6M. That’s a 1.4 million gain.
Democrats
2022: 51.3M
2026: ~70M. That’s a 19 million gain.
Republicans showed up at basically the same level they always do in midterms and actually a bit higher. So it has nothing to do with republicans not showing up to vote.
The difference this year is that Democrats added roughly 19 million more votes than they got in 2022, closer to presidential-year levels as if Kamala was on the ballot. Where the heck did they get that many votes from? Biden’s 20 million he let in at the border?
That’s the story. Not “Republicans sat out.”
In the chart below, notice how the blue trend line is sporadic almost like they were both attempts to stop Trump, while the red trend line has a natural growth?
(Total vote projections are based on the remaining ballots holding their current Democrat to Republican ratios of 55% to 43.5%).
More Texas shenanigans. No idea what the timeline is here, but I'm sensing a pattern.
FOX NEWS ALERT: Nine people were indicted in South Texas for vote harvesting, including the former chair of the Bexar County Democratic Party and a former Democrat Texas House candidate, Cecilia Castellano.
Jesse Watters: “Meet Manuel Medina, he’s a Democrat, of course. Manuel is accused of providing compensation in exchange for vote harvesting services on behalf of former Texas Democrat House candidate Cecilia Castellano.”
“Multiple defendants are accused of providing vote harvesting services for Cecilia in exchange for money paid through cash apps.”
“These nine are on top of another six indicted back in May by [Texas Attorney General] Ken Paxton for alleged vote harvesting.”
First time I've ever seen this kind of comment from a polling company. Still not sold on it but it makes you wonder. I'm aware of the allegations but press cited leftist horseshit from Wedgewood and Median all year so if you have a grief with the firm shove it up your ass.
Every counted vote must be from a legal, living American citizen.
There are now detailed Federal databases by county that can surface election fraud cases for investigation.
And @TheJusticeDept previously committed to doing so.
Was this a mousetrap election?
Ok I'm gonna say it plain and outright, call me a tinfoil hat right-wing freak I don't give a fuck, this was election fraud. The rig overshot by hundreds of thousands of votes to secure a win and it's painfully obvious to anyone without an agenda that nothing about this is normal
And again with the TX horseshit. No way that was organic.
A lot of yammering about Republican turnout.
Greg Abbott (Respected Moderate) EXCEEDED his 2022 midterms performance by 100K votes (and counting).
He garnered more votes than any Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Texas history.
The problem is Gina Hinojosa gained 1.7 million votes more than Beto O'Rourke.
Those are Looney Tunes numbers.
Hinojosa got 400K more votes in Texas than Kamala Harris in 2024. She's got more than Joe Biden in 2020 by 5,000 votes and counting.
These are not normal midterms numbers. These are retard numbers.
Not a single opinion poll before the elections came close to predicting this.
Lines at the polling places in Texas should have been around the block to get these results.
Unfortunately too many Conservative Thought Leaders are more concerned about screaming "I told you so" and polishing their resumes for 2028 for the upcoming DeSantis-Vance feuds.
Cailín Maith 🇮🇪 🇺🇸 retweeted
HOLY CR*P 🚨 Official Election Administration and Voting Comprehensive Report buried all the way on page 193 of the document shows Texas processed 2,900,357 new valid voter registrations between 2022-2024 without proof of citizenship
Documented proof of citizenship like birth certificate, passport and naturalization papers is not required at the time of voter registration in Texas
56.5% of Texas voter registration were classified as “new valid registrations.”
This is extremely suspicious that 55% of Texas voter registrations were “new”
