Feroce Research

Micron $MU - '𝘐 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦!!' After popular demand in my mentions amidst all the memory noise, let's do an update on where memory is as we continue to follow exactly with our blueprint from last year: 💡 Around $1,100 I had mentioned memory was still cheap fundamentally, but owning* memory had become historically expensive. What did I mean by that? It's fairly simple. -- Fundamental story for memory is not changing. -- The same fundamental story which drove memory to record highs is still going to be the driving factor behind more record highs next year. However, as someone who expertises in aligning fundamentals and technicals along with quantitative positioning, options market was waving a red flag in memory ownership. Both, IV and Call Skew were trading at record highs, which more often than not, signal stagnant price action moving forward. -- The sell off in summer? Not a sell off at all. -- What we saw happen in Summer was no different what we saw earlier this year in March. The same level of selling pressure has been seen before, and that same level of selling pressure created the next big moment for memory. Long story short, take exactly what happened in March, and elongate that price action by an extra quarter in between. I would not anticipate for memory to keep doubling per quarter like our prior forecasts at Feroce Research were. Instead, I expect memory to double every other quarter from here on out. Something which I discussed in the quoted post ahead of time during peak fomo back in early June. -- Attractive once again. -- Option markets are starting to price in memory at attractive prices once again which brings up another unique opportunity to build exposure in memory yet again. Memory simply had to become range bound in order to bring fear mongering posts out. That is quite literally the point of bringing IV and Call Skew back to regular levels. It does not require a sell off event. It only requires a choppy price action which throws off both sides. -- Price levels? -- As long as Micron can continue to trade above 830s, expect the market to build as much exposure as possible on memory. A floor of $890-900? You are almost guaranteed to start the fresh uptrend which would welcome $1,830s by sometime Q1 of 2027. Keep it simple. Everything happening right now is everything we have discussed months in advance.

had a private discussion with an AI and memory expert, here is what I was told: - buy tech and semis brah

2 very important things to note: 1.) Every major oversold condition in these instances reversed the NEXT week, NOT before the weekend. So for any reversal to happen, market will need to show a consistent buying performance all of next week 2.) Assume we bounce short term, but the longer the market spends time at this range, the larger the probability of more downside opens up Also worth keeping an eye on defensives. This week they’ve lost tons of steam, which is a positive sign for tech. However, if they happen to pick up steam again in the next 2 weeks, that would also assume tech is not seeing confident buyers — In order to recreate any of those oversold conditions into fresh ATHs, you’d need to see: • buyers step up within the next 3-5 trading sesh • follow through on buying the week after as well $QQQ $SPY

market finally closed and just remembered the south korean after-party will soon start

Crude bulls gonna need a strong engulfing candle in order to prevent more downside The more ema touches down here, the higher the probability of weakening support #WTI

bought stuff today after a while, last tranches for the year also new shorting opportunities have come up for specific industries. similar scale to neocloud/cpu short idea from weeks ago

Neoclouds are NO longer an attractive short $IREN $NBIS $CRWV

In other words, even if tech were to sweep in new lows, oversold conditions have become so extreme that the r/r probabilities of paying premium for more downside are historically low at current levels You will likely see a bounce regardless at these levels before determining if new lows or highs can be set afterwards $QQQ $SMH

Tech now seeing selling conditions last seen in: - 2023 - 25' Tariffs - Iran/US escalation In other words, when the band-aid gets ripped off. Note: Tariffs lows were not put in immediately until lower end of the EMA met. Though, oversold conditions are now the same -- 23' and 26' crude selling bottomed at current average If you are looking for a rotation OUT from semis, should have done it weeks ago, NOT here. Monitoring how tech trades next week will be the pivotal moment. Can be the difference between 810s vs 550s *weekly chart, so this only relates to anyone who swings positions $QQQ $SMH

Rate sensitives and Metals i still believe will see a large move even if they initially have not seen much love this year $SOFI $XYZ $RKT - extremely strong names + strong earnings beats this quarter so far

The tighter data center guidelines become, (hyperscalers will have no issues meeting these requirements) the larger of an advantage high beta stocks like $BE and $ALAB have. These are 2 of the only beta names which I would feel comfortable holding moving forward They dont necessarily just cater to high demand. Both of them have the edge when it comes to having a product that helps solve any scarce supply concerns.. and that’s where tighter guidelines can actually benefit them

Think market will soon come to realization that parties will get along to keep AI growth alive, while crude dampens Both have positive impacts on GDP expectations + inflation/food concerns You do not need to have halting data center or capex peaking convos before/or during iran/us de-escalating convos. You can focus on one at a time $QQQ happens to be at one of its most pivotal spots this decade, which generally has determined where tech has traded. As of right now, buying pressure continues to come in where it needs to (Keep in mind, semis play a big role on the Q's, and Q's has played a big role in GDP)

Micron just saw one of its single largest call spikes right before market close: $70M+ net call spike for >60dte This was the largest single net spike since July, which was an approximate $90M+ net spike on puts $MU

One of the largest <60dte call buying sprees on Silver today since October Not necessarily a buy signal, but definitely comes at a pivotal moment which could later answer if this week marked the lows for 2026 or not

$IWM one of the strongest sectors and potential short-term upside towards 295s

Gold refuses to break below October lows and on pace to have its first bullish engulfing candle since August How price action follows through from here will determine if new ATHs are yet to be made or not for metals #GOLD

Market just dumped $50M worth of <60dte puts in the last 20 minutes across $QQQ $SKHY $MU Whether the market just realized the AI trade is far from over and pulls a soon-to-be bear trap, time will tell. But this is one of the largest put selling activity since October started

Astera Labs currently flat despite a double digit % implied move We will count this reaction as a win under current market’s tape Clean beats across the entire board with margins expected to get better as well Now the main focus is post-earnings’ price action next week $ALAB

outside of recently shorting apple, health care $xlv is another short play that I think is worth nibbling

“If such and such party wins midterms then it’s all over for tech” brother we’ve already had global uncertainty last and this year, I don’t think we can talk about a specific party causing more uncertainty than we already have dealt with lol vote for whoever aligns with your beliefs without causing negativity!!