
Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)
Sydney, Australia
Joined April 2011
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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Too many people on X are still posting about buying when there is blood on the streets for it to actually be time to buy.
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
The world’s most accomplished tech founders and business leaders are betting hundreds of billions on AI with extraordinary conviction. Meanwhile much of the investing world thinks they’re making a massive mistake. The irony is hard to ignore. An investment industry where very few have historically managed to beat a passive index is now questioning the judgment of the people building the technology and running the businesses that will put it to work. Maybe the investors are right. Maybe the builders are. But I can’t remember a time when the stakes were this high and the two sides saw the future so differently.
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
so we are in a huge ai bubble that everyone knows about, that everyone keeps warning everyone else about, which makes investors increasingly scared that we're in a bubble, which means everyone is being cautious about investing in the bubble, because everyone knows it's a bubble, which somehow makes it the biggest bubble in history, despite everyone being fully aware that it's a bubble and constantly reminding everyone else that we're in a bubble.
From today's Broker Call Report @FNArena : "Citi's quick response to today's announcement starts with the view that Beach Energy's -$115m farm-in to Elixir’s Energy's ((EXR)) Taroom acreage is providing a compelling medium-to-longer-term growth opportunity.
"Commentary suggests the deal is done at a reasonable entry price with implied acreage valuations broadly in line with comparable equity valuations in the area.
"However, Citi also continues to see multiple headwinds and expects these to weigh down on the share price nearer-term.
"In addition, Citi remains reluctant to ascribe material value ahead of further appraisal success and greater clarity around commercialisation.
"The latter is particularly important, commentary suggests, given remaining uncertainty surrounding the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme.
"Target of 80c remains unchanged. Sell."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
This may help explain what’s happening in markets @FNArena
Next Week At A Glance - 26-30 Oct 2026 fnarena.com/2026/10/23/next-…
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"Ampol's September quarter result fell short of market expectations, but has the subsequent share price pullback opened up an opportunity for investors?" @FNArena
Ampol: More Than A Refining Disappointment fnarena.com/2026/10/22/ampol…
CLSA on Amcor $AMC: "AMC’s Berry merger and ongoing portfolio rationalisation remain central to its updated shareholder value creation framework that targets returns of 13-18% pa post the merger (previously 10-15%).
"Selling remaining non-core businesses will in part help deleverage and reintroduce a buyback in order to meet new the return targets.
"However, a return to stabilised volume growth is paramount, in our view, supporting almost all potential catalysts.
"We transfer coverage of Amcor from Daniel Kang to Justin Barratt. In doing so we make EPS changes of c.0-3% over FY27-29CL. Our PT moves to A$66.10 (was A$68.60.) Maintain Hold."
#stockinfocus #XJO #investing
Moelis on AIC Mines $A1M: "Copper and gold production at the Eloise mine came in lower than our estimates, attributable to processing lower grade ore stemming from delayed access to higher grade material in the Eloise Deeps and Lens 6 deposits.
"Mill tonnes were consistent QoQ despite the plant commencing an early shut for cutover work to connect new equipment.
"Site cost escalation has seemed to manifest in this quarterly print when comparing the prior corresponding period, with mining, processing, site admin and transport up 17%/8%/41% (unit costs), respectively. US$10m was drawn on the US$50m Prepayment Facility (now US$40m drawn), and cash ended at A$37.2m."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing #gold #copper
Moelis on Vault Minerals $VAU: "Ordinarily we would anticipate a soft market reaction to today's Q result given the weaker outcomes compared against our estimates for production, costs and cash position.
"However, the pending acquisition by GMD means that VAU share price is more likely to be influenced by GMD's price movements given the fixed ratio of the bid (in GMD stock)."
#stockinfocus #ASX #gold #investing
Citi on Nick Scali $NCK: "Neutral-rated Nick Scali’s trading update this evening revealed materially weaker than consensus expectations (we previously flagged downside risk) and represents a sharp deterioration versus the trading update for the first 5 weeks of 1H27.
"The main surprise is that ANZ written orders have gone from flat in the first 5 weeks of FY27 (reported in August) to - 15% in 1Q27, resulting in 1H27 group NPAT guidance of $28 million - $32 million which is -20% below VA Consensus at the midpoint.
"The positive UK momentum continues, but is not large enough to offset ANZ weakness.
"With Citi forecasting another RBA rate hike in November with risk to the upside, we think it is premature for investors to assume this is the end of the downgrade cycle.
"We consider Nick Scali’s update to be a better reflection of underlying housing retail conditions compared to Beacon Lighting’s update yesterday."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
$NCK with a 7.10pm trading update ☠️
Profit down 30% 👀
(Not held)
RBC Capital on NextDC $NXT: "Given the uncertainty around NextDC's near term outlook following delays to its M3 data centre, and concerns around NXT's funding/liquidity, we have taken a conservative approach to our forecasts and valuation, and now only include contracted developments as our base case.
"Our TP falls to $9.00 (last close $5.35, book value/share $7.90), we retain our Outperform rating.
"Based on our new forecasts, NXT has sufficient liquidity and headroom to covenants to fund existing contracted billing.
"Next catalyst: AGM update (20 Nov) where NXT will provide more detail on FY27's outlook and colour on the M3 delay."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Citi on NextDC $NXT: "While NXT management was trying to highlight the various capital options it has (land bank, recycling capex, slowing capex etc.), it did raise concerns on the balance sheet.
"Given NXT is able to use the whole contracted EBITDA that is due to start billing in 2 years time and interest cover covenant is only for the net interest expense on the senior debt facility, we currently do not see a risk of a breach in covenants but acknowledge some uncertainty in terms of service credits payable.
"Further, while the contract delay is a negative, we are not sure the customer has many options in terms of finding suitable alternate sites with a competitor and at the rate that it was originally signed at."
#stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing
From Macquarie's response to NextDC's $NXT market update:
"We think this reinforces the strategic value of NXT’s existing power-secured capacity, where scarcity is immense."
Oh, but the irony!
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Citi on Sigma Healthcare $SIG: "Sigma's AGM trading update is broadly in line with expectations and the CW Australia August trading update.
"For 1H27TD to 16th October, CW Australia Network sales are up 12.1% (vs 1H27e Citi: 12.6% and VA consensus: 14.5%) and 9.8% LFL (vs 1H27e Citi: 10% and VA consensus: 9.9%).
"CW International reported 1Q27 sales (constant-currency) are up 30.2% and 15.8% LFL. These appear roughly in line with VA consensus in AUD terms for total sales but potentially below on LFL.
"Throughout the period, Sigma continued to see softness in some discretionary categories such as ladies' fragrances, vitamins and supplements given cost of living pressures.
"Sigma expects oral GLP-1 formulations to enter the market in 2H27, which could provide tailwinds for sales growth.
"We do not expect a material share price reaction given the in-line CW Australia LFL result. We leave our forecasts unchanged."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
RBC Capital on NextDC $NXT: "An incrementally negative development for NextDC with the deferral of ~$140m of revenue and Underlying EBITDA on M3 due to delays in grid rollout on community opposition sees FY27 revenue and EBITDA guidance lowered ~22% and ~36% respectively on prior FY27 guidance (provided Aug-26).
"Whilst out of the company's control, delays to power supply and DA's relating to NXT's M3 data centre is evidence that community concerns around data centre developments present a real risk to the timing of delivery of contracted capacity for data centre owners.
"We see today's announcement as mostly a timing issue, with M3's earnings to be pushed out to at least FY28, though unquantified service credits where capacity is delivered late also present downside.
"We highlight that this could provide a catalyst for NXT to undertake capital recycling opportunities.
"We also wonder if any potential sale of development sites not needed in the near term may impact NXT's longer term ambitions."
#stockinfocus #ASX #investing
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
"AI is a fad. Nobody uses it to make money."
In the meantime, revenue per worker continues to climb.
RBC Capital on Northern Star $NST: "NST has released a positive update for 1Q FY27 with gold production of 364koz, 7% above consensus of 342koz (RBCe 343koz) at an ASIC of A$3,217/oz, some 8% below consensus of A$3,493/oz (-4% vs RBCe A$3,340/oz).
"The stronger-than-expected production result was due to beats in the Kalgoorlie region including KCGM where the new 27Mtpa processing mill is being commissioned and the Yandal region driven by improved grades at Thunderbox, partially offset by Pogo.
"FY27 guidance remains unchanged at 1,500-1,650koz gold sold at an AISC of A$3,050-3,450/oz. Cash and bullion of A$1,200 million at 30 Sept-26 was well above consensus of A$576m.
"In terms of growth projects, Hemi Project studies are progressing in line with plan for Final Investment Decision late FY27.
"Overall, a strong start to FY27 and expect the higher than expected production and lower ASIC particularly at KCGM which has been a focus for many should improve confidence. NST will host an analyst conference at 10:30am today."
#stockinfocus #ASX #gold #investing
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck retweeted
Been obsessed with the stock market since I was a teenager. Have traded through the dotcom bubble, the financial crisis and just about every market mania since. But I’ve never seen anything like the skepticism surrounding AI. Not even close. Every time one bubble narrative falls apart a new one takes its place. Rumors become headlines. Misleading data goes viral. Claims that could be debunked with 5 minutes of research get repeated by major media outlets, influential investors and Wall Street analysts. It’s relentless and honestly pretty fascinating to watch. Of course there will be spectacular failures and massive wealth destruction along the way. That’s what happens during technological revolutions. But I’ve never witnessed this much effort to convince the world that something so transformative is actually one giant speculative bubble destined to take the entire economy down with it. I understand why AI scares people. What I find harder to understand is why so many investors seem to be rooting for it to fail.








