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Risa
Joined October 2010
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Why is it that Betfair allow a punter to win £1 million from betting on a four corners accumulator, and yet if you are lucky enough to land a multiple at Leicester, Redcar, Kempton or Southwell today your return could be limited to just £100,000 !
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Both flat turf meetings are soft / heavy today so here's the FlatStats Sire Stats Table for such ground. Note the standout sire Teofilo. The stats are blue (good value), the sample size is very sufficient and it passes the Archie test at the medium threshold. Teofilo has one runner today with Luminous Approach in the 2:39 at Leicester. The horse is lightly raced on the turf with just one run - a 4.4L 5th of 11 over course and distance. That run was on Good to Firm, so form-meisters may overlook this horse. But statters will see the sire's record on this ground and would expect this horse to improve on it. 2:39L Luminous Approach
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Clearing out some of my mother's stuff I found these photos of myself at my first ever protest event. It's 1971 and I am aged five. I am the shortest kid in the middle of the first picture; looking smart with a tie on. The event was to protest the Carbon Black factory, which blighted Port Tennant on the east side of Swansea. My nan and uncle lived there and when I went to visit them as a child I remember the awful soot pollution in the air that permeated into the houses. It was really nasty stuff. The London protests (as well as early one's at Swansea) were unsuccessful which then led to the complete blockade of the factory. 50 "housewives" blockaded the site round the clock. Eventually Port Tennant residents won but it was a long battle that shook Swansea council, and parliament. I may have been only five at the time but I think it instilled in me the passion to try and put things right what I believe are totally wrong. It's why I took on BT over the Phorm snooping scandal, and it's why I feel so strongly about 48 hour declarations, the going and watering fiasco, that are detrimental to racing.
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The difference in BOG Advantage between bookmakers is huge. Some allow a maximum advantage of £1,000 whilst others are unlimited. £1,000 limits are dreadful. If you place a £5 Win Yankee and have four winners at 6/1, 5/1, 4/1, 3/1 your return is £8,285. If the 6/1 drifts out to 8/1 SP and BOG kicks in you would expect a return of £10,375. But Betfair, Paddypower and BoyleSports (LBOs) will cap the return to £9,825. I can understand bookmakers wishing to protect themselves from a multiple coup that has winning drifters going from 10/1 to 20/1, or 16/1 to 33/1 but a horse going from 6/1 to 8/1 is hardly the coup of the year.
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Here's some FlatStats resources that could help you find winners at Doncaster. Jockeys on Soft / Heavy Ground Tables This ranks jockeys by the A/E value stat with the best value jockeys listed at the top. Today the best jockeys for this ground are: Rhys Clutterbuck (Egoli, Seagoing) George Wood (Goldmoyne, Harlequin Dream) Clutterbuck passes the Archie test, Wood, is just slightly under the threshold. Look at the bottom of the table and you will see jockeys who do not perform so well on soft ground. Colin Keane is near the bottom. Sires on Soft / Heavy Ground Tables If a horse has had no or only a few runs on soft ground then you need to check their sire stats. At the top end of the table (thus good value) are: Galileo Gold, Fast Company They don't quite pass the Archie test and there are others with higher A/Es but have lower (unreliable samples). At the other end of the table there are negatives for: Starspangledbanner, Dutch Art, Dark Angel, Sea The Stars, Havana Grey They do pass the Archie test so the stats should be reliable. But remember! If a horse has shown it can handle the mud that fact should over ride the sire stats. Horse / Going Combo Stats This is a resource that shows horses' records on the going, at the course, over the distance. So if you want to find out how many times Under The Sun has run on soft ground this table will show you "8 times and 1 win". Of course this is going to be low sample, but if you want to quickly see which horses have run many times (and won or not) on soft ground then this resource is for you. All pages have free samples so you can try them out. If you like the pages then join today and have full access for the rest of the flat turf season and into the new AW season. 1/2
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Here are the resources: Daily Stats Extra Page - View Horse and Going Combo figures flatstats.co.uk/horse-racing… Soft Ground Jockey Table - View the stats for jockeys riding on the soft today flatstats.co.uk/jockeys/jock… Soft Ground Sire Table - View the stats for sires with horses running on the soft today flatstats.co.uk/sires/sire-s… Want to subscribe? Join today and get instant access to these resources and dozens and dozens more including our system builders, ratings, and dosage and pedigree information? Did you know that when flat racing has it's annual holiday in mid November we credit all subscribers with *free days* so that they do not miss out. Does your current racing stats site do that? Join here today: flatstats.co.uk/join/flatsta…
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Dosage Selections for Thursday 1:45N Happy Love 7:00S Diamond Blue Point 7:30S Beatrice Brianne Selections made from using the FlatStats Dosage / Pedigree resources.
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View dosage information for runners here: flatstats.co.uk/racecards/do… See figures for each Dosage Category (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic ..) as well as the Dosage Index, CD and Total scores. We also show 5th Generation Pedigrees.
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Outsider Hunting Wednesday
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It's still October so it's still Outsider Hunting Season. Here are a few possible outsiders that were found using various FlatStats resources: Archie Outsider Method (Trainers) 1:20Y Passing Thought 2:53Y Miss Tonnerre Draw Bias Stats 3:28Y India Gold 3:28Y King's Castle 3:28Y Crimson Rambler Kelly (Benter version) 4:57N Dark Moon Rising 6:00N Quiet Resolve 6:30N Sea Legend 7:30N Herakles
Wondering why so many outsiders are winning recently? O is for October and is also for Outsider Hunting Season
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Wondering why so many outsiders are winning recently? O is for October and is also for Outsider Hunting Season
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All stats sites are not the same! Some sites display meaningless draw bias stats that are based on number of wins, strike rate or profit. All of these metrics are flawed because they have no value element. FlatStats is different. We calculate a Draw Bias Index (DBI) based on the A/E value stat. We do this so that we can identify draw biases that are over or underbet by the masses. We analyse Draw Ranges (the lowest, mid, and third highest of the field) rather than individual stalls. Any site that says "Stall 7 is profitable" is giving you unhelpful information. It is far better to look at a range rather than a single stall that is just a random stat. We perform Stall Smoothing. This is where draw bias ranges are smoothed so that there is no 'cliff edge' change from one stall to the next. Other sites may not do this. We perform Stall Shuffling. This is where a stall is shuffled up when there are early non runners. This process helps to make draw bias analysis more accurate. Other sites may not do this. Does your current website or racing resource do all of this? If not then try FlatStats today and see the difference.
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The image shows draw biases for today. In the 1:54, 2:29, 4:14 races at Nottingham High drawn runners offer the best value. In the 3:04 Mid draw best offer value and in the 5:22 Low is tops. These figures are based on the current going and field sizes. If the going or field sizes change then the DBI could change. Be aware that sometimes draw biases can be scuppered by incorrect going descriptions and over watering. You can view draw biases every day here: flatstats.co.uk/draw-bias-st… Free samples for guests are available so check it every day and if you are convinced that FlatStats draw bias stats are better than your current website then subscribe and have immediate full access.
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All stats sites are not the same! Some sites are too slow so you can never get the information you need whilst you have a train of thought in your head. Some resources require you to load software or an app on your devices. At FlatStats we use the latest server hardware and tune the software to the max, which means you can run reports and check out your theories in seconds. We also display stats that other sites do not have. Need stats on Breeders? We have them.
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That's our Archie Stats page. The page is set to find stats for trainers with favourites. The stats have to be strong (good sample size, and least likely to be random or noisy). The current Betfair market is scanned to find contenders. Today the page has found that when William Knight sends out just one runner in a day, and that runner is favourite, he has had 18 wins from 32 starts, which is a 56% strike rate. The important A/E (value) stat is 1.78 and that means Knight is very underbet with these horses. This is an Extreme Favourite Stat. You can find more of these each week on our special Archie Stats page. You can set that page to find extreme favourites, outsiders for backing, or fancied runners for laying if you wish. flatstats.co.uk/archie-stats… View the free samples each day or subscribe and get full access to all the stats.
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