Prev economist @resfoundation & hmtreasury | views my own

London
Joined July 2012
Truck crashes result in 160,000 nonfatal injuries and 6,000 fatalities every year in the US. Hour tracking devices - ELDs - were mandated in 2012, aiming to make trucking safer by stopping truckers driving long hours (by stopping falsification of paper records). Did they?
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As Helen says, policy can get more generous sensibly - the min wage took a steady path to reach its target of 2/3 median earnings. The triple lock's annual ratchet wasn't that. The PM's adj triple lock –rising by prices or 2.5%, & keeping the earnings link – is good policy.
I'm getting grumpy at claims that the old triple lock is a good way to increase the generosity of pensions relative to earnings If a higher pension is desired -> just state the level &when you want to reach it; don't just hope that at some unknowable future date it happens
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Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!
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My fantastic colleagues @resfoundation will still be tweeting the latest economic data and policy insights, so be sure to follow @hale_shale @simonpittaway @JamesSmithRF @GregoryThwaites @Camron_res @mollybroome_
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🚨 New research published today Our latest report by @richmond_egyei @FryEmily @Tasos_Kitsos @DalilaRiba @GregoryThwaites &Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/ycjN6KI
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What is driving Britain’s place-based wage divides? While regional pay inequality is widely discussed, what drives these divides is less well understood. Join us on Monday to discuss with @xiaoweixu_ @henrimurison Rachel Taylor, @GregoryThwaites & Ruth Curtice 👇 buff.ly/hahdelB
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Despite increases over the next three years, some departments’ day-to-day budgets are still set to be significantly below 2009-10 levels by 2028-29.
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As of February, the biggest contributor to that surge is... non-ferrous metals. Exports of non-ferrous metals to the US (aluminium, copper, and *precious metals*) are up 1,358% since Feb 2024. This isn't a global trend: exports to the RoW fell 50% since Feb 2024.
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This is based on the latest UK data (February 2025). But with tariffs ramping up from March and trade flows shifting, one thing’s certain: there’s more volatility ahead.
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Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats. Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories. The headline number is tricky to interpret, but is the UK part of this surge?
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Non-seasonally adjusted UK goods exports to the US have jumped 31% since September 2024 (vs -1% to RoW), and are up 11% since February 2024 (vs -10% to the RoW). What are we sending? More cars? More pharma? Not quite.
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Short piece out tonight on what tariff announcements mean for UK living standards (h/t @FryEmily & @GregoryThwaites): tariffs will hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect policy. Big risk is this turns into a global recession. resolutionfoundation.org/pub…
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Here's something a bit wacky: post April 2nd, markets are pricing in much higher 1-year inflation in America and much lower in Britain. But there hasn't been much of a divergence in priced-in central bank cutting paths. In fact, the Fed is still priced to cut more than the BoE.
British (blue) and American (white) 1-year inflation swaps have been on radically different journeys since April 2nd
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New this morning - @resfoundation latest research on who benefits from public services - and what it means for the Spending Review. 👇
New @resfoundation research out this morning from @FryEmily, @zackleather and I which uses the first ever comprehensive analysis of public service use across the income distribution to show how the Government can make public services better for low-to-middle income families.
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New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better? Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
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We have an excellent event tomorrow morning on how the Government can turnaround its economic policy at the Spending Review with David Gauke and Sandra McNally: resolutionfoundation.org/eve…. Will feature exciting, new work on who benefits from public services by @FryEmily. 👏👏👏
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Alternative reading to tariffs
💫 We’re launching the Centre for British Progress Our founding essay: Rediscovering British Progress is a case for growth that drives shared progress, rooted in Britain's values and industrial heritage. It all starts with a postcard from 1870 👇 britishprogress.org/articles…
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Delayed UK trade data out today from @ONS shows strong monthly growth in UK exports: goods +6.3% & services +1.9%. But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
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New analysis from the OBR reckons that - depending on how many countries are affected by US tariffs and if countries retaliate - the impact to the UK could peak at a 1% hit to GDP in 2026-27, and a 0.75% hit to GDP in the medium term. obr.uk/efo/economic...
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Uncertain trade data combined with fast-moving trade policies creates a difficult environment for accurate forecasting, with risks to the downside for Britain.
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