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Today is the day I join the Substack family, and I have two main reasons:
1) Substack offers better options for sharing longer and more complex work. I want to share, for example, my Excel files, where I have all my calculations, and that works better on Substack than through X articles
2) Feedback from my followers - I was surprised, but many people already asked me if I wanted to create an account on Substack. I assume it is easier for people to read and share than using X.
Please understand that all my articles, deep dives, valuation models, and further analysis will be free for everyone. I am new to Substack, and I must say the fact that the first thing it helps you with is setting up subscriptions is comical. I have some preset settings for subscriptions, but you don’t need to subscribe, as all posts will be open to everyone!
The only limitation I actually set up myself is that commenting is open only to subscribers (the free tier is sufficient) to avoid annoying people.
Feel free to share this so people can follow. Already uploaded my updated Nebius Thesis, and tomorrow I will release the margin impact analysis regarding Token Factory’s new joiner, Inferize.
Thanks for all the support!
funmentalist.substack.com/
The Fundamentalist retweeted
A market crashing because companies are spending to expand and prepare for the next super bullish cycle is one of the greatest opportunities of your life time
$NBIS
“Expert on neoclouds” and he doesn’t know that Nebius is not looking for any bare-metal contracts from these leading frontier labs/hyperscalers. These contracts were used as a bridging strategy for easier financing of the buildout.
This is why it is important to know what you own. Someone calls himself expert and yet he has no idea what he says…
Expert on neoclouds:
"At the moment, both Meta and SpaceX are already denting demand for neoclouds and AI-infrastructure providers, because we're getting bare-metal contracts from Anthropic, Google, and other frontier labs — all contracts that could have gone to leading neoclouds like Nebius, CoreWeave, or IREN, or to another infrastructure player, but instead are going directly to Meta and SpaceX."
$SPCX $META $NBIS $IREN $CRWV
$NBIS Q3 Earnings date (Nov 12th)
Judgement day in 13 days!
$NBIS
Everyone is so worried about CapEx, but it is not going to stop. Every single tech company so far has confirmed that they see enough reasons to continue spending.
Nebius will definitely spend at least $25B (the upper bound of their CapEx guidance) this year. Why? Because they see meaningful ROI...
It is not that complicated. When you see returns on your investments, you invest (same as us investors), and Nebius sees it.
Next year I expect the CapEx to be north of $40B. Everyone will panic again when Nebius says that number out loud. And the question is simple: Do you believe the management correctly assessed what the ROI will be for this $40B investment?
If yes, you invest in the company.
If no, you sell the stock and don’t invest in the company.
Too many people cry here about their investments, but Nebius has quite a simple trajectory. Spend as much as possible to eventually get back as much as possible. Do you believe in it or not?
$NBIS $IREN
Sentiment is at its lowest, while businesses are improving
The best potential setup for nice investment returns. 2027 might be rough because the market is not ready for how much CapEx will be spent, but it is also not ready for how much money will be made years later
$NBIS: Stock is bleeding after hours, but AWS reports Fortune 500s spending nearly 7x more on its AI platform, with Bedrock token volumes up 17x
$NBIS $IREN
The most important part of $AMZN earnings for neoclouds:
1) AWS grew more than expected
2) AWS will continue to grow more than expected
Thanks for your attention!
Amazon $AMZN CEO Andy Jassy just said Amazon Web Services expects to grow revenue at a growth rate of over 40% for both 2027 and 2028
Market is so focused on every single headline and number, it is shocking…
I believe that the AI bubble burst will be caused primarily by the fact that 99% of people have no idea what they actually own. I don’t blame them as AI is basically a combination of extremely difficult physical engineering and leveraging what we knew from machine and deep learning.
Being able to understand both the physical part of the AI buildout and the intelligence part is almost impossible for people with no background. I took several classes at my university (mainly ML and DL) connected to the intelligence part and I still had to learn in the last 2 years more about the rest than I ever imagined.
The physical (infrastructure) part is still complicated for me. I have researched Nvidia a lot back in 2021/2022, so that makes it a lot easier, but the pace at which the physical layer is evolving is hard to keep up without engineering background. Every single piece of news forces me to do a lot of research and it is exhausting sometimes, not gonna lie.
What I want to say, is that I am heavily focused on AI and all its subsets for several years now and I am still learning. Meanwhile, we have the median age of accredited investor in the US around 50. I don’t mean to be rude, but these people have no idea about what it takes to be successful in AI market. They don’t understand the technology and what is required for it…
This is why they had (many of them still have) so much trouble understanding the absurd amount of CapEx that is being spent. It also causes every single headline to make them sell or buy several stocks because both they and their clients have no idea what they own.
Happy times to hold $NBIS, $IREN and listen to them saying that these companies have no MOAT…
$NBIS $IREN
@RHouseResearch not sure who you are targeting, if it is Nebius or IREN, but it is Nscale before people start spreading FUD…
As of today:
$IREN H1-H4 still on time
$NBIS Vineland still on time
$NBIS $IREN
$ORCL will stop pressuring the debt market, this is absolutely huge for $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN and other neoclouds as this will make debt more accessible again
Expect pump!
Oracle $ORCL is projecting a nearly $54B turnaround in annual free cash flow over 3 years
Now expects to turn FCF positive in the H2 of FY28 & generate at least $30B in FY29
Expects its massive AI data center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 before declining in FY29
By FY29, Oracle says its growth will be self-funded.
$NBIS Singapore/Johor Bahru DC
Malaysia is not surprising, and I covered it earlier this year. Singapore is experiencing a massive data center boom, and there are roughly 135 tracked facilities across Malaysia, with more than half of them being in the category "upcoming projects"
If the conditions in Malaysia are favorable for the business, it would be a wasted opportunity not to build/acquire something there
$NBIS Water consumption (25x more efficient)
If people in the US are worried about water consumption, trust me, people in Europe are 10x worse. This will be an important factor for Nebius to be the leading sovereign cloud in Europe.
No idea how this works, really not an expert on SI data center cooling. But it looks like $NBIS uses up to 25x less water per unit of power than the average US data center.
$NBIS
Read this and tell me that you are ready to sell the stock at these prices...
You either can’t do math or you hate money!
All Material $NBIS quotes from $NVDA GTC
Demand for Next Year
"We have 1 GW worth of Veras coming next year, and already have significant demand for them."
"We're hearing from customers about what they need late in '27, early in '28."
Spot Pricing & Auction
"We want at least half our capacity to be allocated to today's needs [vs. long-term contracts]."
"A couple of hyperscalers asked us about our experiences [with spot pricing]."
On Raising Capital
"Capital is not a problem it's a task"
"We have a pretty healthy balance sheet, we also have been more conservative here."
"We are building a real company. Real company is measured by earnings. Healthy business is business that generates cash."
"Last week, some of capital sources temporarily closed like asset-backed or debt market. But we are working now with customer advances and through other instruments will probably provide us with enough financing to build 1GW at least"
Power
"We have more than 5GW+ reserved already"
Deployment Speed
"DSX POD, for complete NVIDIA Vera Rubin AI factories built by partners inside modular containers, reduce deployment time from six months to as little as 14 days"
"What used to take, in the case of Grace Blackwell, two hours to assemble one node [...] Now, Vera Rubin is 100% liquid cooled, and it takes less than five minutes to assemble it."
Bottlenecks
"GPUs will become the next bottleneck for the market. chips allocation is a concern."
$NBIS Australia?
Nebius is hiring a Site Selection & Colocation Manager who will be responsible for new data center developments and colocation expansions across Australia
$IREN and $NBIS will be the first in Australia where the government is willing to help with financing and is overall open to companies building DCs in the country.
