VP Federal Tax @TaxFoundation. @StLawrenceU Alum. Arkansan. North Country NY Native. Aspiring aviation nerd. Married to @VictoriaBell. All views my own.
Farmington, Arkansas
Joined September 2011
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Garrett Watson retweeted
David Laibson and I devote an entire Ec10 class to the limits of knowledge--or, to put it succinctly--"we don't know."
Also discuss what it means for public policy where sometimes that means wait to act, sometimes make actions more robust, and sometimes build learning in.
Garrett Watson retweeted
So Democrats first act in the next Congress is to propose “shock and awe” massive deficit expansions. Would easily top 1+% if GDP when combining legislation to reverse the tariffs, Medicaid and SNAP cuts, plus proposed expansions of CTC/EITC/LIHTC, PTC, and more.
NYT: Democrats Plan “Shock-and-Awe” Legislative Burst
Should they win in November, top House Democrats are planning a shock-and-awe legislative sprint to demonstrate within hours of taking power that they are passing bills to deliver on their promises, including restoring health care subsidies and Medicaid resources and moving to end Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran
nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/po…
Garrett Watson retweeted
The non-partisan tax foundation found that high income taxes hurt growth. It’s critical that Colorado voters reject Amendment 87 which would make Colorado the 9th highest taxed state. It’s not to late to vote No on amendment 87
States with no individual income tax (Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, and others) consistently rank among the strongest gainers, while states with the highest top rates (California at 13.3 percent, New York at 10.9 percent, and New Jersey at 10.75 percent) dominate the list of largest losers.
Explore the data: hubs.ly/Q04C95Xm0
Garrett Watson retweeted
We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.
openai.com/index/building-sc…
Garrett Watson retweeted
The US ranks 17th in the @TaxFoundation's 2026 International Tax Competitiveness Index taxfoundation.org/internatio…
Garrett Watson retweeted
Wyden just updated his data center tax bill.
There's more definition around things @GS_Watson, @DiSalvoPhD, and I had questions on (e.g., who's a "small" data center operator).
And still MANY unanswered Qs: tax rate, how bright the lines are between AI and non-AI usage, etc.
My first post @TaxFoundation, with @GS_Watson & @DiSalvoPhD: Sens. Warner and Wyden proposed new, targeted tax increases on data centers.
While aimed at voter concerns, each proposal would make the tax code more complex and less neutral, and could drive AI investment overseas.
Garrett Watson retweeted
You can debate the magnitude of people who move for tax reasons. But if you debate the existence you lose all credibility with me. I could easily name more than a dozen people I know who have moved from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions to reduce their taxes.
Garrett Watson retweeted
Good summary here, and plenty for tax watchers to engage on in 2027:
- premium tax credit expansion
- removing tariffs
- LIHTC
- CTC and EITC
- AI/data center policy
- Tax hikes to pay for new spending
nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/po…
Garrett Watson retweeted
The key reason is this:
People who did not fall off the turnip truck yesterday know the truth about "one time" taxes. Especially this one that spends the money on recurring programs instead of one time expenses.
My source for CA prop 40 leading to a permanent tax? Prof. Zucman:
The key problem is this:
Why would billionaires permanently leave California in response to a one-time tax owed if they lived there on January 1, 2026?
It would only make sense for them to leave if the tax becomes annual.
But if the tax becomes annual, it would also generate revenue annually — by virtue of, well, being annual.
Garrett Watson retweeted
This is important work especially because the corporate tax exemption for nonprofit hospitals does not show up on the annual tax expenditure lists and estimates provided by JCT and Treasury.
.@GS_Watson and I explored policy options to reform the tax treatment of nonprofit hospitals.
We estimate that subjecting large hospital systems to the 21% corporate tax would raise nearly $150B over 10 years.
(1/5)
Garrett Watson retweeted
New @TaxFoundation analysis estimates that taxing large hospitals systems at the 21 percent corporate income tax rate would raise nearly $150 BILLION in new federal revenue over 10 years.
Incredibly valuable work from @andrew_lautz and @GS_Watson:
taxfoundation.org/blog/optio…
Garrett Watson retweeted
.@GS_Watson and I explored policy options to reform the tax treatment of nonprofit hospitals.
We estimate that subjecting large hospital systems to the 21% corporate tax would raise nearly $150B over 10 years.
(1/5)
New from @andrew_lautz and me: Nearly half of US hospitals are exempt from federal corporate income tax among other tax breaks. As hospitals consolidate into larger systems, these worth more each year. What would reform look like?
taxfoundation.org/blog/optio… @TaxFoundation
New from @andrew_lautz and me: Nearly half of US hospitals are exempt from federal corporate income tax among other tax breaks. As hospitals consolidate into larger systems, these worth more each year. What would reform look like?
taxfoundation.org/blog/optio… @TaxFoundation
Other options: an endowment-style tax on net investment income ($22.8B-$119.6B), recapturing tax benefits above charity care ($64.2B), denying deductions for gifts ($32.0B), or ending tax-exempt bond financing ($5.9B).
Design matters. Reforms should limit harm to capital investment, and some systems may spin off hospitals to avoid the tax. But focusing on the largest systems would improve neutrality while sparing smaller hospitals.
taxfoundation.org/blog/optio…
Garrett Watson retweeted
Tax rules don't always treat similar businesses or families the same. Non-profit hospitals benefit from many exclusions that for-profit hospitals face. @GS_Watson and @andrew_lautz explore several policies that Congress might consider: taxfoundation.org/blog/optio…
Garrett Watson retweeted
Gabriel Zucman declares it methodologically fraudulent to assume any billionaires would leave California in response to a "one-time" retroactive 5% tax of their wealth. He cannot conceive that they may assume the tax would be repeated later. <facepalm>
xitter.cf/gabriel_zucman/status/…
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