Moran Tice Cap Mgmt LLC - RIA - Precious Metals Equities. Tweets are not investment advice: do your own due diligence. 41 years of macroeconomic investing.
Highlands, NC
Joined March 2016
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1000 PHD's in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD's in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates!
Part of what we did not like regarding the Argonaut purchase was Argonauts massive hedge @$1820 AU; the risk in these hedges were simply not dissiminated by management in their presentations.
Their hedges are down to 17k ounces and we no longer consider them a liability and have returned $AGI to our unheged universe...
So where are we now on $AGI?
Mining is tough; Young Davidson seismic event may or may not be management fault. Island Gold mine poised to be a monster, but delayed again. PDA delayed. Lynn Lake under construction.
By mid 2027, $AGI looks like a must own stock. Two years of underperformance was our forecast as we repeatedly said it looks like a 2028 story, in 2024-2025. We are now buyers on weakness.
$GDXJ does no fundamental analysis; if they did $AGI would not be their largest holding.
Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of thi sector.
$BVN does anyone read income statements? Does AI put this in your emailbox? Checkout EBITDA including affiliates! Who is the affilate? ($BVN owns 20% of 1 of best copper mines on planet)! $2B in annualized EBITDA.
Not investment advice; do your own due diligence. Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of this sector!
So where are we now on $AGI?
Mining is tough; Young Davidson seismic event may or may not be management fault. Island Gold mine poised to be a monster, but delayed again. PDA delayed. Lynn Lake under construction.
By mid 2027, $AGI looks like a must own stock. Two years of underperformance was our forecast as we repeatedly said it looks like a 2028 story, in 2024-2025. We are now buyers on weakness.
$GDXJ does no fundamental analysis; if they did $AGI would not be their largest holding.
Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of thi sector.
It is easy to sell newsletters and like stocks which have performed well; it is harder to actually have to report real performance. I was openly critical of $AGI 1 to 2 years ago:
In 2018; we loved $AGI at $4-$5, the street hated it and blamed management. Going into tonight's EPS, $AGI traded at 21x consensus EPS & Magino had not delivered to management's guidance.
In 2022, $NEM traded at 24x EPS & we did not own a share, but we still held $AGI. Today, $NEM is trading at 12x consensus EPS & everyone hates it & blames management. Currently we love $NEM & are on the sidelines regarding $AGI. Both produce Gold in good jurisdictions with good mines.
A major reason we outperform this sector is we are value investors. We prefer to buy low & sell high. The ETFs routinely buy high & sell low & are a major reason investment advisors hate this sector; the ETFs performance is awful. There is a price we would become interested in $AGI again (but it is not at that price currently).
Not investment advice; do your own due diligence. Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of this sector.
$AYA plus 100% since this post; $$GDX not so good...
$AYA Gold and Silver has been slaughtered today, despite Silver approaching all-time-highs. We are not geologists, so we can not offer any insight to whether Benoit La Salle has cooked the geology books. He did previously make us a lot of money in Semafo, which was sold to Endeavor Mining. So we will give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.
We have a small position in this stock and have added slightly today; in our experience ramping mines can be more difficult than management promotes. We are old enough to remember both Brucejack & Detour having issues ramping production. These 2 mines are now core holdings of $AEM & $NEM; the geology based shorts were proven wrong then.
We are not geologists; we are a finance and macro house. We are waiting for $AYA to meet financial expectations, before taking it to a big position. Do your own due diligence; past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of this sector.
youtube.com/watch?v=4-Bq7xK6…
After 5 months of being Fed Chair, the Kevin Warsh Fed has raised Fed Funds by .25% to 4% (= to our govt's reported inflation rates).
After 5 months of being Fed Chair, the Paul Volcker Fed had discontinued targeting interest rates and restricted bank reserves allowing short rates to spike from 11% to 14%.
Yet, very large US algorithmic traders continue to short Gold futures everytime inflation expectations rise, betting on a similar outcome in the Gold market as 1980.
With $75T in equities being supported by the same algorithmic traders who short volatility everytime the VIX rises, not sure why anyone believes the Warsh Fed is any different from the last 3 Fed Chairs.
Until financial conditions actually tighten, it appears the new Fed Chair is no different from the old Fed Chair.
Not investment advice; do your own due diligence.
Garic Moran retweeted
More evidence that the Chinese have been heavy gold buyers around the $4,000 price level.
"Domestic gold demand is increasingly running against the price trend, strengthening as prices fall," Wu said.
"On the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), China's main bullion marketplace, the Au99.99 contract traded 43 million lots last week. That equals roughly 430 tons and marked its busiest week since April, Bloomberg reported." "Buyers must pay in full and take delivery, so the volume reflects physical purchases rather than leveraged bets."
Now a little help from the Fed (just get past this FOMC meeting with Western speculators positioned for a hawkish view)?
finance.yahoo.com/markets/co…
$NEM put up another great quarter highlighted by $1.9B in free cash flow despite lower average realized prices and higher all in sustaining costs.
Their co-product all in sustaining cost of $1963 is in line with our average miner and is up big, yoy.
As a reminder rapidly rising cost of mining gold has historically been bullish for Gold. The entitities shorting Gold futures into another inflation surge are playing with fire.
Not investment advice; do your own due diligence. Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of thi sector.
Treasury debt to the penny $40.396T vs $37.977T this day last year. Debt outstanding continues to grow at a 6.3% annual rate. Yet, employment is not growing and inflation is: stagflation.
The cost of mining Gold continues to rise rapidly; there are some analysts who claim this is bearish for miners. Gold miners have always performed best in inflationary cycles. For example, the cost of mining Gold went up huge in the 70's and 00's; yet, the stocks blew away the S&P 500 in both decades: do your own due diligence.