Gaye Davis retweeted
On turnout: It seems clear now that the very poor turnout in 2021 was due in large part to COVID. We're expecting turnout around 50%, which is still lower than 2011 & 2016 but rejects the idea that turnout has been in a downward spiral. Turnout is on trend, not 'recovered'
Gaye Davis retweeted
Ok, let me explain some of these walls, because what is happening is profound. Let's take the ANC's rural wall.
The ANC's greatest strength is its rural strongholds. This wall comprises 4464 rural VDs that the ANC has won in every single LGE - 2000, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. They are the absolute pillar of ANC support.
And they are getting decimated.
They were chosen as of analytical value because, while the ANC has declined in previous elections, its strongholds have always held. The theory was, if they cracked, the ANC's core support base has cracked, and that represents a fundamental shift in SA politics.
Well, they have cracked, they are cracking, left right and centre. Holes everywhere. Where it sin't losing these VDs, it is losing support in them. It is a simple picture but it represents something very profound.
Jeepers
So the ANC's metro wall (metro VDs it has won in every LGE) is only slightly better than its rural wall, still dire, but is worth looking at in more detail.
The bricks are ordered in terms of ANC strength in 2021. So the strongest bricks are the bottom row. It has lost two bricks in that row. I have highlighted the one to the bottom left - in Buffalo City: VD 10820247.
Here is the ANC's history there:
2000: 94.86%
2006: 94.35%
2011: 74.83%
2016: 88.34%
2021: 94.51%
Then comes 2026: SACP: 44.2%, ATM: 27.2%, ANC: 24.1%.
Total and utter collapse. Now, the SACP is from the ANC's universe, so should be taken with a pinch of salt, but to go from 94.5% to 24.1% is a result of spectacular proportions.
Gaye Davis retweeted
My article in @dailymaverick today on the ANC's election campaign. It was hard to write, but there needs to be some frank introspection. dailymaverick.co.za/opinioni…
Gaye Davis retweeted
Our first CSIR election modelling predictions are out!
Working in collaboration with the @SABCPortal, #TeamCSIR has deployed its election prediction model at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC) to support data-driven election analysis throughout the 2026 local government elections.
Our team will continue to monitor incoming results and update model outputs as more official election data becomes available.
Follow along for insights into the science, data and innovation behind the process. #LGE2026
ℹ️ elections.sabcnews.com/
@dstigovza
Gaye Davis retweeted
We Found The “Zuma Must Fall” Ladies BUT They Have Now Changed Their Tune And Dedicated Their New Song To Gogo Helen
Thread
Geordin Hill-Lewis is a highly effective Mayor, and could be an important figure in the evolution of the DA, but not if he is going to repeat the error that has his party worrying about coalitions in conditions that should have it romping to majorities news24.com/politics/election…
Gaye Davis retweeted
DA Johannesburg mayoral candidate Helen Zille thanks voters for coming out to cast their ballots in the 2026 local government elections. #Newzroom405 #Vote26
Gaye Davis retweeted
Congratulations to the Democrats for victory in the midterms. The outcomes are a victory for democracy in the US and the world. A victory for accountability, the international rule of law and the UN Charter. A victory that shows how much the American value diversity. A victory for those who believe that relations between countries should be governed by predictability and mutual respect. We will continue working towards common ground.
Gaye Davis retweeted
I will try to get us a final turnout update around 9PM for the 8PM data. Stay tuned. Btw, this is the best pre-poll close turnout data we've ever had.
IEC has increased transparency by including reporting down to VD. I've not seen better live turnout data anywhere (globally)!
Delicious satire 😂😂
There is widespread confusion among Democrats this morning, after they accidentally won the US midterms despite their best efforts to lose. They now face their worst nightmare: enthused voters who actually expect something from them.
They are weighing up whether to condemn James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed for giving people false hope, or pretend to be just like them. Perhaps the smart move will be to take the credit, just like that kid who pushes a train in that meme. Whichever way they go, there’s no denying this is awkward.
Ordinarily, Democrats prefer a tiny majority, so they can assign two bad cops to block every bill they introduce. Now they’ll either have to not introduce bills or pray that Trump vetoes them. Given the President spends half his time sleeping and can’t even finish his sentences, this is a risky strategy.
There is every chance that Americans end up with something good entirely by accident. I wouldn’t even rule out Trump forgetting to veto the release of the Epstein files. As you can imagine, the corporate donors who own both sides have steam coming out of their ears.
Democrats were so determined to lose that one of them endorsed a Republican to stop a Muslim from taking Michigan. Unfortunately, 60% of Michigan’s Jews turned out to be antisemites and voted for Halal law and Sharia meat. Chuck Schumer and Haley Stevens are losing their fucking minds.
It’s fair to say neither side wanted a blue wave to sweep across the US. Unfortunately, the Republicans’ strategy of saying a load of racist stuff and doing endless war backfired. Americans are only in favour of those things when they can afford fuel and groceries. Now that everything’s getting expensive, they are going cold on the whole imperialism thing.
President Trump was left scratching his head, wondering how he lost so badly, despite winning the Iran war 27 times this year. I don’t have the heart to tell him that Pete Hegseth lied. After all, he’s still mourning Lindsey Graham who could only watch on from hell as the results came in.
Without Lindsey Graham’s presence, the axis of evil is falling apart. The warmongers don’t even know who they are anymore. The result broke John Bolton so badly that his moustache crawled away and said it’s getting a divorce.
Bolton criticised Trump for his forever war in Iran and for surrounding himself with yes men. Given that he’s never seen a war that didn’t arouse him, this is deeply troubling.
The Republicans are facing a major identity crisis. If they’re no longer the party of paedophilia and genocide, what else can they offer? They’ve even lost the ability to cheat properly. They somehow lost the seats they’d gerrymandered, and to make matters worse, someone forgot to flip the voting machines.
We saw state after state change colour after people who normally prefer the greater evil chose the lesser one. Even Texas turned blue, despite scientists insisting this was physically impossible. It was supposed to be one of the three laws of the universe. You can’t go faster than light, Trump can’t be trusted around school girls, and Texas can’t turn blue.
For the longest time everyone just accepted this is how reality works. Now the Democrats have taken every office in Texas: Senator, Governor, Lt Governor, Attorney General, Land Commissioner, Comptroller of Public Accounts, Agriculture Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner, and all four Supreme Court Justices.
I can’t bear how embarrassing this must be for Elon Musk who tried desperately to buy Texas for $212 million. Turns out this was the biggest waste of money since he spent $40 billion to rename Twitter, only for everyone to keep calling it Twitter. Imagine being the world’s richest man, owning the most powerful propaganda tool in history, and still no one listens to you.
At least it’s all bad news today. Israel has disputed the claim that Iran achieved regime change in the US, after it successfully installed AIPAC Shakur as House Speaker. If anyone can let Democrat voters down as badly as President Biden, it’s Hakeem Jeffries.
The first black House Speaker in US history has already announced his determination to be the worst black House Speaker. Americans are terrified this might inspire Kamala Harris to do another presidential run.
Gaye Davis retweeted
Overall thoughts on turnout: Looks A LOT like 2021 (which was good for the DA) but with potential to over/underperform pending how turnout develops in the final hours.
Overall turnout edging higher than 2021.
Gaye Davis retweeted
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Wow. Didn't expect much but turnout this low?
Gaye Davis retweeted
Senior Democratic Congressman released this statement slamming Trump admin decision to exclude South Africa from AGOA
#sabcnews
