Eric Jacobson

REMEMBER: There are two actions an #investor can take today: BUY or HOLD. You don’t have to buy, but any selling should have happened weeks ago. Never, EVER sell into a panic. #investing $SPX $IXIC $BTC #gold #EVERYTHING

Blue Wave. Market Crash. Jobs Surprise. What a Week. The #StockMarket spent the week doing what it does best: confounding everyone. #Investors woke up on Wednesday celebrating a surprising Democratic sweep in the midterm elections, only to watch that optimism evaporate a day later in one of the sharpest selloffs of the year on Thursday. By Friday, a much stronger-than-expected jobs report had traders reversing course once again, proving that in today's market, conviction can be measured in hours rather than weeks. Beneath the headline volatility, investors are wrestling with several major questions at once. How will a dramatically altered political landscape affect economic policy, corporate profitability, and the future of AI-driven spending? Is the recent weakness in technology stocks merely a healthy correction, or the beginning of something more significant? And with the labor market continuing to show surprising resilience, what does that mean for growth expectations heading into year-end? This week featured all the ingredients of a modern market drama: election surprises, violent sector rotations, a near-correction in the Nasdaq, and economic data that challenged prevailing narratives. Join me for FREE on my Substack to break down the stories that moved #stocks and what they could mean for investors going forward: tinyurl.com/WeekInReview429 #Investing #LongTermInvesting #InvestingWisdom #StockMarketNews #StockInvesting

Bitcoin’s Data Says $38,000. The Permabulls Say 'Trust Me, Bro.' I remain baffled by the permabulls. After Bitcoin made a meek lower weekly-high at $81,130.79 on Wednesday, it crashed through key support on Thursday only to eventually create a new weak support level at $75,035.10. Meanwhile, permabulls posted everywhere on X that Bitcoin looked good on the long timeframe after Bitcoin broke a higher support level on Tuesday evening that signified further downside. Wait. What? Never ignore when a major asset breaks through key support, even if it recovers, particularly when Bitcoin does it. For the near-decade I’ve been involved in the Big Orange Crypto, I’ve pointed out how Bitcoin sends these “warning flares” where it breaks low and everyone ignores the brief wick with excuses like “it was on weak volume” or a “fast reversal indicates Bulls are buying.” The reality is starkly different. Historically, whenever Bitcoin sends one of these warning flares, that’s the crypto telling us where it plans to go. And, in this case, that sign is lower. There is nothing bullish in Bitcoin right now: The Democrats taking a majority in both the House and the Senate means the Clarity Act is cooked. Macropolitical events are seriously negative for all risk assets (including Bitcoin) with a war in Ukraine that might heat up and a war in Iran that’s nowhere near done. Plus, we’re in the middle of the most dangerous time both in seasonality but also by the calendar for Bitcoin (see below). None of this is bullish. Let’s go over my Crypto Winter Crash cheatsheet again for the cheap seats in the back (or for those of you who are new here). Whenever there’s a Crypto Winter, it follows these steps: 1. Bitcoin crashes 55% or more from the most recent all-time high. 2. Bitcoin rallies 50-60%+ from that low. 3. Permabulls scream “This time is different! The bottom is in!” 4. New money pours into the space. 5. Bitcoin rolls over and crashes 50%+ lower than “the bottom.” But, let’s say you still think the bottom is in. Alright. Try this on for size: When did Bitcoin start its final descent in 2022? November 8. When did Bitcoin start its final descent in 2018? November 14. What day is it today? November 6. In the past two Crypto Winters, Bitcoin started its final descent within the first two weeks of November… almost to the exact same day. “Professionals” will tell you to ignore the calendar and claim that seasonality doesn’t matter. That’s fine, but I predicted 2022’s crash in October 2022 - weeks before it happened - simply by looking at 2018’s price action, seeing similarities, and warning people on Twitter about my findings. Let’s say you still think the bottom is in. Fine. So far in this Crypto Winter, Bitcoin has crashed only -54.25% from its all-time high. The next closest drop is 2022’s Crypto Winter when Bitcoin crashed -77.57% from its all-time high, a difference of more than -40%. Going further back: In 2018’s Crypto Winter, Bitcoin crashed -84.36%. In 2014’s Crypto Winter, Bitcoin crashed -86.96%. As someone with a master’s degree in statistical analysis, a -54.25% is so incredibly improbable that it’s painfully unlikely Bitcoin’s made its final low for this Crypto Winter. Even the most optimistic statistical predictions suggest we should expect a selloff of at least -70% from the all-time high (8% less than 2022’s Crypto Winter which was 8% less than 2018’s Crypto Winter). A -70% crash from our current ATH gives us a price target right around $38,000. Okay. Long-time readers of my blog know that I’m not selling everything and going to cash, not even close. Instead, I’m holding what I have in my trade already and adding at key levels on the way down, increasing my quantities along the way. I’m in this for the long term. Over the long term, I’m uber bullish. But, over the short term… well… Bitcoin is unpredictable. Bitcoin is volatile. Bitcoin is the essence of wealth destruction. … but only if you sell. If you believe in Bitcoin, you have two choices when it crashes: add -or- HODL. Never sell. However, just like with any asset, there’s always the possibility of Bitcoin going completely to zero (no matter how unlikely). As a result, I manage my risk by knowing the entire amount I’m willing to lose entirely. That’s right - I know right now how much I will lose if Bitcoin goes to zero. The game is investing. The rules are risk management. The way to win is having a plan.

If @Investopedia wants a simple 2-day chart for when anyone looks up "Bull Trap," they should just use yesterday into today's price action of $SPX, $IXIC, or pretty much anything... 🫣

If you're a student of history like me, you're looking at today's selloff in Bitcoin and comparing it to early November 2022 and early November 2018. It's unlikely this is the end of the selloff. This could just be the start. Will $57K hold? 🤔

$LUNR The market showed no remorse positively abusing the space sector stocks during Thursday’s freefall and sent #IntuitiveMachines (#LUNR) through my Speculation in Play portfolio’s next buy order, adding 7.34% to my position at $8.40. The buy lowered my per-share cost -12.25% from $14.70 to $12.90. From here, my next buy target is $6.23, above a level of support LUNR last tested during the Tariff Tantrum in April 2025, and my next sell target is $20.70, just under Intuitive Machines’ August high.

$USAR I find it fascinating to watch which stocks rally and which stocks sell off following a U.S. election. Despite having excellent long-term prospects and a lot of speculative stocks taking off on Wednesday, #USARareEarth (#USAR) sold off more than -6% intraday and triggered the next buy order in my Speculation in Play portfolio which added 7.29% to my position at $8.15. The buy lowered my per-share cost -6.85% from $12.40 to $11.55. On Thursday, the market freefall sent USAR even lower and triggered my next buy order which added 6.16% at $7.05, leaving me with an average buy price of $7.60 and decreasing my per-share cost another -6.49% from $11.55 to $10.80, a total price reduction of -12.90% from where the week started. While I do believe in the long-term prospects for the company due to the U.S.’s need for rare earths for a variety of industries including tech, automotive, and defense, USAR has proven to be an incredibly volatile stock so my buying plan includes many buys at a variety of key levels. My next buy target is $5.60, just above USA Rare Earth’s all-time low, and my next sell target is $18.49, below a level of resistance USAR has contended with many times in the past.

$ORCL During Thursday’s marketwide freefall, all #AIstocks got hit with the more speculative ones, like #Oracle (#ORCL), truly getting slapped down hard. When Oracle broke through its July low, it filled my next Investments in Play portfolio’s next buy order which added 14.58% at $114.77. The buy lowered my per-share cost -1.20% from $121.36 to $119.90. From here, my next buy target is $100.05, above a level of support Oracle last tested in December 2023. My next sell target is $170.48, just under ORCL’s high from September.

$GNRC Electric generator maker, #Generac (#GNRC), sold off with the rest of the market on Thursday, giving back the entirety of the gains it made following #Amazon’s $AMZN investment announcement in September. As a result, my patience paid off and Generac triggered my opening buy order in my Investments in Play portfolio with a 30.28% allocation buy at $175.00. Clearly, I truly believe in the long-term prospects of GNRC given the weakness of the United States’ electrical infrastructure combined with the needs of Artificial Intelligence going forward. That being said, the November-December time period is notoriously volatile historically, so further downside would be far from unheard of. Accordingly, my next buy target is $161.80, above a level of support Generac last tested in January, and my next sell target is $296.40, just under GNRC’s 2026 high.

$WGMI With both Bitcoin and the AI trade falling under significant selling pressure on Thursday, it should come as no surprise that CoinShares’ Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI) got positively pounded. WGMI fell through my next buy target which added 6.70% to my Flagship ETF Portfolio’s position at $23.69. The buy locked in a -64.85% discount replacing some of the shares I sold for $67.39 on May 27, 2026 and raised my per-share “cost” +13.80% from -$29.12 to -$25.10 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $25.10 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value). Given the wild volatility of WGMI specifically plus the significant amount of profit I have already pulled from this position, I will continue to add with my next buy target at $17.33, above a level of support WGMI last tested in June 2025. My next sell target is $76.89, just under WGMI’s all-time high.

$CCJ #Cameco (#CCJ) continued to experience selling pressure along with the #NuclearEnergy sector early in November. On Thursday, November 5, Cameco triggered my next buy target which added 2.61% to my Pandemic Portfolio’s position at $69.20. The buy locked in a -45.31% discount replacing the remaining shares I sold for $126.54 on January 26, 2026 and raised my per-share cost +23.75% from 16.00 to $19.80. I believe in the long-term prospects for nuclear energy - Cameco, specifically - but this selling weakness could easily continue in such a volatile sector. Accordingly, I plan to continue adding with small buys; my next buy target is $58.05, right around a support level CCJ last tested in May 2025. I will start trimming my position at $131.09, just below a level of resistance under Cameco’s all-time high from earlier this year.

$URA When the market rolled over following Wednesday’s rally, sectors which were already weak like #NuclearEnergy were slapped hard. The #GlobalXUraniumETF (#URA) fell through my Speculation in Play portfolio’s next buy target which added 13.44% to my position at $32.01. The buy locked in a -18.47% discount on shares I sold for $39.26 on July 15, 2025 and raised my per-share “cost” +73.12% from -$18.60 to -$5.00 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $5.00 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value). Despite the Democrat’s Blue Wave, there is little question that nuclear energy is the only green energy solution substantial enough to meet the world’s future energy demands. I don’t believe the Democrats being elected to office is enough to change that long-term investing thesis. Since I have already removed all risk capital plus profits from this position, my risk management discipline will only permit me to put the profits back into the position. This prevents me from turning a winner into a loser. Accordingly, my next buy target is down at $18.60, above a level of support URA last tested in March 2023. I will start trimming the position at $60.47, just under the ETF’s 2026 high.

$IRDM Long-time readers of my Speculation in Play blog know that I’ve been a bull on #IridiumCommunications (#IRDM) since I first opened my position 7 years ago at $26.28 on March 25, 2019. Of course, being one of the early plays in the outer space sector meant this position saw extreme volatility until it received a $55 buyout offer from #RocketLab (#RKLB) earlier in 2026 when I closed my position entirely on June 29, 2026 at $52.76. Thanks to the space sector getting slammed once more, investors are getting jittery about $RKLB being able to pay out the offered premium since the company’s stock price has dropped like an asteroid. As a result, Iridium Communications has also sold off and has been trading around $44, a -20% discount to the buyout offer. On Tuesday, despite the rest of the market rallying like no tomorrow after the Blue Wave midterm elections, Iridium once again tested support, triggering my next buy order which reopened my position with a 19.16% allocation buy at $43.47. The buy locked in a -17.60% replacing some of the shares I sold when I closed the position at $52.76 on June 29 and gave my a cost basis of -$136.55 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $136.55 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value). Since this position has been a huge winner for the portfolio, I have to stick to my #RiskManagement discipline of never turning a winner into a loser. Accordingly, I will only put profits back into this position, however with so much profit taken out, I have quite a liberal buying plan with my next buy target at $30.55, above key upward trendline I’ve been following for more than 7 years. With the buyout deal still in full effect, I have no plans to sell the position. Instead, I’m going to ride this one out through the deal regardless of what happens. If the deal ends falling through, I remain bullish on Iridium’s long-term prospects. If the deal closes, I’ll make more than a +20% markup on the shares I bought.

$USAR I find it fascinating to watch which stocks rally and which stocks sell off following a U.S. election. Despite having excellent long-term prospects and a lot of speculative stocks taking off on Wednesday, #USARareEarth (#USAR) sold off more than -6% intraday and triggered the next buy order in my Speculation in Play portfolio which added 7.29% to my position at $8.15. The buy lowered my per-share cost -6.85% from $12.40 to $11.55. While I do believe in the long-term prospects for the company due to the U.S.’s need for rare earths for a variety of industries including tech, automotive, and defense, USAR has proven to be an incredibly volatile stock so my buying plan includes many buys at a variety of key levels. My next buy target is $7.05, around a level of support USA Rare Earth last tested during the Tariff Tantrum in April 2025, and my next sell target is $18.29, below a level of resistance USAR has contended with many times in the past.

Bitcoin just broke through $76K, but don’t worry, I’m sure the permabulls are right and we’ll be at $95K in just a few days… 🙄

You can tell a lot about how weird today's selloff was by just looking at my 5-ETF "Dumb Money" Portfolio's daily performance. Energy $FENY, Tech $FTEC & megacap growth $MGK traded down together, but utilities #FUTY (and consumer staples) rallied! #SafeHavens

In every Crypto Winter, Bitcoin crashes 50% or more from its all-time high and everyone thinks “this time is different, the days of 70% selloffs are behind us.” In 2018, the bulls said Bitcoin was done because there was more institutional money in the space and futures would stabilize the market. In 2022, the bulls said Bitcoin was done because there was more institutional money in the space and ETFs were coming. Now, in 2026, the bulls are saying Bitcoin is done because there is more institutional money in the space and ETFs will stabilize the market. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin sold off more than 50% from the prior low. In 2026, the low is $57.5K. So, do you think this time is different? One day it will be. Is today that day? Place your bets.

When Bitcoin, Gold, and Uranium All Fall at Once The contrast between my three ETF portfolios this week tells the story of today’s market better than any headline. While speculative themes like #Bitcoin, #nuclear, #PreciousMetals, and high-growth #technology were hit hard, #investors stampeded toward safety, dividends, utilities, and bonds. That rotation created a tale of three very different outcomes across my ETF portfolios. The good news? Volatility creates opportunity. Even as the markets churned, several positions reached profit-taking targets, allowing me to lock in gains on both Treasury bonds and dividend stocks while patiently rebuilding cash reserves. In uncertain markets, raising cash isn’t a prediction. It’s preparation. Join me for FREE on my Substack to dive into the numbers, the trades, and the biggest winning and losing sectors from the week: tinyurl.com/ShoppingList130 #LongTermInvesting #Investing #InvestingWisdom #ETFInvesting