bitcoin:native is beating the S&P 500 again. Over recent weeks it has won more trading days than it lost. In June it won only one day in five, its weakest stretch in more than five years. Outperformance like this could become reflexive as investors move to the strongest asset class.

Hyperliquid whales are net short bitcoin:native for the first time since March. This group managed to long the bottom, but the positioning flipped last week. The question is whether they are early to a deeper pullback, or about to be squeezed if price turns higher.

Our backtesting engine found this bitcoin:native rule. It buys when the 30-day RSI of entities in profit crosses above its threshold. Since July 2023, its worst drawdown was 20%, against 53% for holding. Discover your own strategy 👇 glassno.de/alphalab

Recent bitcoin:native buyers have left the strong sell zone. In late September, almost all short-term holder supply was in profit. Now it has cooled to about 70%. For buyers who expect the uptrend to continue, that makes this a considerably better entry than a month ago.

bitcoin:native trades near $80k on Monday after a midweek push toward $85k failed. Longs keep paying up in funding and options traders are hedging, while spot and ETF buyers stepped back as price fell. Read our latest BTC Market Pulse👇 glassno.de/3WOh2qM

Speculation rotated into equities during Bitcoin's bear market. On Hyperliquid, TradFi perps hit over 3x the bitcoin:native perp's volume in August, just when BTC investors capitulated. More in our report with @FasanaraDigital: glassno.de/fasanara-q4

Traditional finance is moving onto crypto rails. Perpetuals on stocks, gold and oil grew into a large part of perp trading on major venues while bitcoin:native sat in a bear market. Our new report with @FasanaraDigital examines what that means for allocators. glassno.de/4ieSL4r

bitcoin:native is testing the ETF cost basis around $81K again. The same level capped the May rally before a deep drop, and caught last week's sweep from just below. A convincing close below it would put mid $70K levels back into play.

BTC treasury companies are in profit but barely buying. They hold $BTC at a cost basis of about $80K, and price has closed above it since September 18. In profit, buying can feed on itself: purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases.

$BTC is boxed in between $80K and $87K. Below, buyers refilled the bids at the ETF and treasury cost basis. Above, the top buyers' break-even, the main asks and the largest liquidation clusters share one zone. More on ETF flows, MSCI and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain.

Binance asks and the biggest liquidation clusters sit around $87K. The top buyers still cap $BTC price near the same levels. A daily close above that level with ETF inflows would show buyers absorbing the supply. More in this week's Week On Chain

The Q4 levels for bitcoin:native have held so far. Last month, together with @colin_basco and the @CoinbaseInsto team we put resistance at $87K to $87.8K in our Charting Crypto report. We read the data as near-term consolidation. Price stalled there and ranged below it ever since. A break out of the range is likely to spark significant volatility, although another overhead supply cluster sits around $90k. Read our full quarterly report below👇

ETF buyers came back in size yesterday. US spot bitcoin:native ETFs took in $663M, the most in a day since September, and all of it went into BlackRock's IBIT. That single day erased the funds' net outflows for October. Follow-through would confirm the demand is back.

Short-term profit-taking has weighed on bitcoin:native. Two weeks ago we flagged short-term holders in profit sending the largest share of exchange inflows in a year. This selling has weighed on price since. The flow has now eased back to its average yearly level.