Mapping the changing global order. Incompetent leaders. Competing interests. Sleepwalking toward a global war by 2029-30. Uncomfortable truths | Independent
Joined February 2026
- Tweets1.7K
- Following419
- Followers418
- Likes3
Pinned Tweet
The US-Iran war looks set to demolish far more than it appears to.
The longer the US stays in this, the higher the odds this stops being a US-Iran war and becomes a Gulf-wide one. Not escalation that threatens Washington or Tehran. Escalation that consumes the entire region.
The GCC economies are already projected to contract by as much as 8.5% this year and that's before this war spreads to the other members of the region.
Wars that don't end on schedule rarely stay the same size. They occupy more geography and more actors, not less. Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen, Oman - every one of them sits close enough to be pulled in, and none of them are large enough to absorb it without breaking.
It may not be in the very near future but if this drags on, the endgame won't be as simple as US or Iran losing. It's the entire Gulf burning down, taking the global economy with it.
That may sound like overthinking or worst-case scenario building. Right now, it's reading closer to a forecast.
Connect @GlobalFaults for more
The headlines say Trump is weighing a ground operation.
I don't think he would commit US troops to it. Not for lack of will. The math is brutal either way. American casualties on Iranian soil would be politically unrecoverable. Four months from midterms, with his approval near the lowest point, a ground war is the one move Republicans can't absorb.
Listen to what he actually said: "We have other people who will do the ground campaign for us".
The Kurdish option was floated back in March, but it never materialized. Turkey killed it before it started. Arming and activating the Kurds is still on the table as a way to tie up IRGC forces at the border. But if not Kurds, it's more likely intelligence assets already inside Iran.
Iran's own supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn't shown his face or used his voice once since March. CIA and Mossad have reportedly been trying to confirm if he's even functionally in charge.
The US was aiming for full regime change as part of the initial plan - partially achieved. Now, with negotiations stalled and Iran showing no sign of folding, the US may aim to dismantle more of the IRGC's command layer through these same assets. That may be the only path left for the US to save face and renegotiate from a position of authority.
That's a quieter war than the one making headlines. It's also the only one that fits the timeline Trump is actually running against.
Connect @GlobalFaults for more
Canada is fast-tracking Pacific Links, a 1M-barrel-a-day oil pipeline to Asia to depend less on US, which buys ~90% of its oil exports.
The pipeline would double west-coast export capacity. First oil: 2032 at the earliest.
Trump’s tariffs & Iran war possibly pushed the shift.
Finnish President Stubb and Norwegian PM Støre held a phone call with Putin.
The call was initiated by the European leaders on a potential Ukraine peace deal.
“The conversation was frank & substantive. Ending the war requires direct dialogue,” Stubb said.
Two men named Mohmed Abdulkarim and Nouman Essghir, both aged 24, have been charged under the National Security Act over the RAF Fairford plot in the UK.
Image is of the suspected terror cell arrested near RAF Fairford in Sept.
The UK Defence Secretary says Britain must be ready to “fight and win” a war within a little over 1000 days.
Spending targets:
> 2.5% of GDP by 2027
> 3% in the next parliament
> 3.5% by 2035
The defence plan already has a £4.7bn funding gap.
Is 1000 days a plan, or a warning?
While Europe is worried about winter, remember von der Leyen's strategic solution: “The cheapest energy is the one you don’t use.”
> EU gas storage: ~74.6%, lowest since records began
> Target: 80%; Netherlands declared will miss it
EU’s plan: hope it’s mild. Wishful thinking?
Clear warning from Zelenskyy to Europe: “We would definitely respond” if Russia sanctions fall.
Is this a threat? Is he willing to bite the hand that feeds him?
Yet, incompetent European leaders continue to prioritize him over their own citizens!
This is extortion. A cold one.
Zelensky says Ukraine needs €115 BILLION for 2027.
Last week, the figure was €70 B. Next week, will it be €150 B?
He seems to treat European funds as his personal chequing account, withdrawing as much as he wants, whenever he wants.
Isn’t this Europe’s self-sabotage?
The victorious Student List states:
* Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia
* "We respect Russia both as great power & as our historically important partner, & in many cases even our protector."
While, the pro EU party won just 0.3% & secured NOT A SINGLE seat in Parliament.
Serbia’s student-led movement has defeated Vučić’s party at polls.
After nearly 2 years of protests, Vučić has conceded. Turnout was highest in over 30 years.
Protest movements are good at saying no. But governing is a different skill.
Can a leaderless movement run a state?
@elonmusk claims that Zelenskyy intentionally used Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for carrying out "offensive drone strikes to kill people", violating its terms of service.
So, Zelenskyy tried to jailbreak Starlink & complained when the loophole was closed.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: “We will NOT be intimidated, and we are fully prepared to deliver a response BEYOND THEIR IMAGINATION.”
“It was US that, through its own miscalculations, entered this quagmire. Now it is they who must take the steps to SAVE THEMSELVES.”
Qatari negotiators have just landed in Tehran in what appears to be last attempt in avoiding massive escalation in the region.
It seems Pakistan has failed. Even this is a waste of effort.
Iran WILL NOT & US CANNOT cede anything. Maybe a final attempt by Trump to sway midterms.
France’s PM Lecornu has reportedly asked telecom operators to prepare to block TikTok, Instagram, Snapchat & X during riots.
According to a letter dated Oct 22 & obtained by Blast, the block would use DNS filtering & last “a few hours.”
France is losing control of the streets.
🤖 Made with AI
Belgian PM Bart De Wever:
"Even a country like Germany said 'We do not have money to keep funding all new ambitions.' And if Germany doesn’t have money, I can assure you Belgium surely doesn’t have money to fund all new priorities."
Surely, Europe has misplaced its priorities.
Spain’s cybersecurity office has flagged a reportedly ISIS-LINKED WEBSITE urging attacks on police & protesters across Europe.
It names France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, and suggests knives, bombs & vehicles. It calls police easy targets.
Are jihadists planning something?
Google ordered to halt work on 2 AI data centres in Finland.
Reason: it cleared forest before completing the mandatory environmental impact assessments.
Muhos: ~250,000 trees, 330 hectares
Otanmäki: ~150,000 more
How can authorities not be aware of such large deforestation?
Scientists in Japan have found a way to make cancer cells destroy themselves.
They developed a toxin that activates in the presence of carbon monoxide, selectively targeting cancer cells while leaving normal cells unharmed.
The research is still at the lab stage.
Brazilians head to polls in a tight runoff that could shift Brazil to the right & closer to US.
The runoff pits leftist President Lula against right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro, son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio defied pollsters in first round. Change coming?
Pentagon has designated Confucius Institutes, China-funded campus cultural centers, a US national security threat.
Hegseth claims 80 “propaganda cells” appeared across 30 universities using different names, & says they’ve been dismantled.
If they rebrand, is designation enough?
Sweden’s government is blocking ChatGPT & Claude on staff computers.
Microsoft Copilot is the only allowed AI. Reason: AI used without an agreement can have “consequences for our information security.”
The line isn’t drawn around the model. It’s drawn around the contract.
