Inventor of the #GoldForecasterIndex Inventor of Sung's Method for Gold Mining Valuations https://xitter.cf/t.co/ky0XQxxNXt
Joined June 2021
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One chart to rule them all! (Have fun decoding it.馃樅 )
Includes:
- market cap
- debt
- gold price
- mine life
- interest
- tax
- cost
- production
- CAPEX
- discount rate
- depreciation
- ownership
- royalties
- payability
showing:
- leverage (slope)
- upside %
Buy the dip in Arrow Exploration. Oil isn't even down. The upside increased to 270%, with downside protection up to $60/bbl. If you don't buy, I buy.馃憤
I remember Arrow Exploration from last year, when oil was at $60. Now it's at $100 and it's making dough.
Not only oil has doubled, their production doubled as well from 3800 BOE/d to 6500 BOE/d. Management says production can even go to 10000 BOE/d in 2028. They also have recently acquired Canadian assets that could add another 3000 BOE/d by 2029, so 13000 BOE/d in total.
Even better, they have no hedges and are almost pure oil with oil to double from $100/bbl to $200/bbl in 2028. Leverage is 5X, which is much better than most miners.
They have a PE of 3 right now, no debt, extremely high margin (cost is only $15/BOE) and realized price of Brent-10. Oil can literally go back to $70/bbl and Arrow would still go up.
They are in Colombia and may one day even get tax cuts with the new pro-energy government.
$AXL.V
I'm not sure about the trajectory of gold and oil.
But I'm sure that oilers are making more money than miners right now.
Correlation Economics retweeted
Behold my signature upside potential chart for Arrow Exploration. 馃槆
At a constant $100 WTI oil price, the upside goes up in time, up to 500% upside or a 6X.
Each year at $100 WTI will derisk the downside. If oil stays at $100 for 4 years, then even if oil drops to $20 your investment won't result in losses.
I remember Arrow Exploration from last year, when oil was at $60. Now it's at $100 and it's making dough.
Not only oil has doubled, their production doubled as well from 3800 BOE/d to 6500 BOE/d. Management says production can even go to 10000 BOE/d in 2028. They also have recently acquired Canadian assets that could add another 3000 BOE/d by 2029, so 13000 BOE/d in total.
Even better, they have no hedges and are almost pure oil with oil to double from $100/bbl to $200/bbl in 2028. Leverage is 5X, which is much better than most miners.
They have a PE of 3 right now, no debt, extremely high margin (cost is only $15/BOE) and realized price of Brent-10. Oil can literally go back to $70/bbl and Arrow would still go up.
They are in Colombia and may one day even get tax cuts with the new pro-energy government.
$AXL.V
Behold my signature upside potential chart for Arrow Exploration. 馃槆
At a constant $100 WTI oil price, the upside goes up in time, up to 500% upside or a 6X.
Each year at $100 WTI will derisk the downside. If oil stays at $100 for 4 years, then even if oil drops to $20 your investment won't result in losses.
Diesel is clearly not high enough. Both refinery runs and crack spreads are falling.
$6/gal by Christmas. 馃巺
