Redeemed, husband, father of 4, antiwar Navy veteran & economist, sharing analysis on @StocksNJocks 8-9 AM EST Tuesdays No debate? It's a religion, not science
Burlington, NC
Joined April 2022
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Hal Snarr retweeted
As an Iranian who has been closely following US politics from the outside over the past two years, let me tell you what was the reason behind the midterm election results in my opinion.
Many were blaming the Iran war.
The war in Iran was essentially a proxy war whose battlefield happened to be in Iran, but behind the scenes, a complex network of global powers was involved. China, Russia, Arab nations, the Democrats, and most importantly, the UK and European liberals were the lifelines and supporters of this regime, they had no intention of ever letting the Islamic regime in Iran go. The Islamic regime functioned as their tool, their financial cash cow, and their asset in the region, to entangle the US in the region and weaken it.
Trump confronted and stood against this entire network. He knew the regime was holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage, but he had the courage to step up, take the risk, and push forward. In response, they had no tools left except the narrative war.
A big sophisticated network started warmongering rhetoric and propaganda. Beyond the mainstream media, they even recruited right-wing podcasters like @TuckerCarlson , who suddenly flipped their positions and began spreading false narratives.
One of their primary tactics was stoking antisemitism and exploiting societal sensitivities, repeating lies until they were accepted as absolute fact. They kept claiming this was Israel’s war, which it simply wasn’t. I grew up in Iran and was forced to chant "Death to America" every morning at school, but I never once said "Death to Israel." This regime was obsessed with US, you are just so lucky you got Israeli intelligence in keeping you updated on the threat. Without Israel, you may had learned about it after a nuclear 9/11. This was America’s war, a fight against a system that was being weaponized to undermine the United States.
As for the necessity of this conflict, Trump had known for years (dating back to his first term) what needed to be done with this regime. Why this timing? Because the people of Iran rose up in January 2026. If you had paid attention, the military buildup started immediately afterward because any meaningful action had to tap into the energy and courage of the Iranian people.
No one in the media tells you that the Islamic regime massacred 75,000 people in Iran, and suddenly that horrific atrocity became a non-issue, completely brushed aside by those who are obsessed with Gaza.
The fearmongers constantly tried to claim that this is just another "forever war," when in reality, Trump was actively preventing a repeat of the Iraq and Afghanistan disasters. What happened back then was a sudden, uncalculated collapse with no plan for the aftermath, plunging those countries into chaos and trapping America in a quagmire. But this time, Trump was handling it in a very controlled manner, applying limited, gradual pressure to steadily weaken the regime so the people could take their country back themselves, without needing any American boots on the ground.
They knew full well that there were no boots on the ground in Iran and that their claims were baseless, yet they intentionally made mountains out of molehills to distort public opinion and hence bail out the regime.
But it changes nothing for @realDonaldTrump , he finishes what he starts, and this will become his lasting legacy. Sadly, by making these choices, Americans have deprived themselves of domestic progress Trump could have offered, and even worse, let the enemy within inside the Senate and the House.
I truly hope this serves as a wake-up call so that by 2028, these lies won’t work on you anymore.
Hal Snarr retweeted
This clip with @TuckerCarlson is from March. It’s hard for me not to look at the midterm results with this hypothesis in mind.
Hal Snarr retweeted
The reason most Americans keep getting poorer is that neither party will stop the runaway deficit spending that leads the Fed to create inflation. Frustrated voters blame incumbent presidents for rising prices that keep going higher no matter which party occupies the White House.
Hal Snarr retweeted
I WISH someone had explained this to me when I was younger Christian.
Every commandment in the Bible and everything it calls a *sin* is actually a *warning* from God not to hurt yourself.
In other words, as it has been said before… When God says DON’T, what He's really saying is: DON’T hurt yourself.
Let me give you several examples.
Sex before marriage - It is a scientific fact that sex creates a neurochemical bond with another person, not just physically but emotionally.
In other words, sex is not just the union of two bodies, but of two souls. So when God says DON’T, he’s saying: you don’t want to be bonded like that to somebody you barely know.
Lying - When you lie, you eventually destroy the trust other people have in you. And the problem with lying is that one lie often requires another to cover it up, until eventually, you've built an entire life around pretending to be someone you're not.
Envy - Envy is resenting God’s goodness in someone else’s life while ignoring God’s goodness in your life. Instead of living a life of gratitude and joy, you live one of bitterness and anger.
Pride - Pride makes a person care more about BEING right… than making a relationship RIGHT. And you become incapable of learning, apologizing, or growing.
Gossip - Gossip destroys relationships… and if someone is gossiping TO YOU about other people, chances are they're also gossiping ABOUT YOU to other people behind your back.
Unforgiveness - This one is tough because you’re already hurt with something. But when you refuse to forgive, unforgiveness makes YOU a prisoner of your past, and a slave to bitterness, resentment, and pain. God says “don’t.”
Greed - Greed makes you believe a lie that if you only had “more” then you’d be happy. Not true. You’ll be miserable.
Lust - We live a culture saturated with lust. It always destroys your ability to experience true intimacy with another person. This is why our culture is terrible at marriage, intimacy, and relationships.
Here’s the point.
Deuteronomy 10:12 (NIV) says “Observe the LORD's commands and decrees that I am giving you today … for your own good."
When God forbids something, it’s not because he hates you and he’s trying to rob something from you.
It’s because he loves you and he’s trying to protect you.
When He says DON’T, He's not trying to keep you from enjoying life.
He's teaching you how to truly live it.
Hal Snarr retweeted
Bret Weinstein announced a plan to turn the Libertarian Party into the American Liberty Party: not a third party, but a second party built on ballot access the Libertarians already have.
BRET: And the idea is to take over the Libertarian Party and to rebrand it the American Liberty Party. So you wanna put up the American Liberty Party site so people can see what we're talking about.
Now you will see that the slogan here, it says the new home for the America First movement. And I wanna point out that America First is a fraught term. What we mean here is America First in the sort of most obvious sense of the term.
American policy should always be in the interests of the American people. There's no excuse for the American government making policy that isn't in the interests of the public.
Now, lots of things can be in the interest of the public. Can foreign aid ever be in the interests of the American public? Of course it can. Of course, yes. Immigration, of course. But we have to have a discussion in which the American people's interests are absolutely overriding and we don't have that. At the moment what we have is governmental policy, which is at best indifferent to the wellbeing of the American public.
So we are very interested in anybody, any patriotic American who is in line with the values expressed in our constitution, founding ethos of the country. If you want the country to function of those values, then this is the party for you.
If you want to use America as a weapon, if you want it to be some kind of ethnostate for certain people, no, that is not what this movement is at all.
This is about, frankly, a division that comes down to us and them. I hate to talk in us and them terms, but the us is everybody who wants a system that is fair, that provides equal protection under the law, that provides access to the market for everyone.
HEATHER: The us could be nearly everyone.
BRET: It should be everyone. It's everybody worth talking to. And the them is anybody who decides that they want something else, that they want special advantages for their people or whatever, or they want to use America as a weapon in some fight that is not our fight.
So we're talking about effectively a second party, we're talking about an American effort, but one that is resolutely in favor of either rescuing the West or reinventing it.
Hal Snarr retweeted
Stanley Kubrick explains the ending of 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY in a rare 1980 phone interview
Hal Snarr retweeted
This is an excerpt from UNELECTED. I didn't promote it at the time because it is a radical chapter written after 350 pages of buildup.
The Truth About DOGE.
americanmind.org/salvo/the-t…
Hal Snarr retweeted
REMINDER: It doesn’t matter who wins the midterm elections today, because the US government will never, ever stop printing money.
Hal Snarr retweeted
Before the welfare state existed, working-class Americans built their own safety nets, and those nets caught people.
Fraternal mutual aid societies like the Odd Fellows, the Sons of Italy, and hundreds of smaller ethnic lodges ran insurance programs throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. By 1920, roughly one in three adult American males belonged to one. Members paid modest dues, typically $1 to $2 monthly in 1900 dollars, and received sickness benefits, death payments, and access to lodge doctors who charged $1 to $2 per year per family. The Foresters of America covered 900,000 members by 1908. These institutions ran on mutual contracts between people who knew each other; it wasn't charity.
Accountability created alignment of incentives. Lodge members had every incentive to verify that sick claims were genuine, because fraudulent payouts drained their own pool. Government bureaucrats face no such incentive. Someone else bears the cost of fraud in their system.
The lodge doctor system collapsed because the American Medical Association lobbied state legislatures throughout the 1910s and 1920s to ban contract medicine. Doctors working for lodges earned less than AMA members preferred. The state obliged, eliminated the competition, and left citizens with the fee-for-service monopoly that still strips your paycheck today.
Voluntary cooperation built welfare that worked. Politicians dismantled it.
Hal Snarr retweeted
THIS IS ONE OF THE WORST CALLS OF THE SEASON, A COMPLETE GAME CHANGER FOR SEATTLE.
THIS IS ABSURD.
😳😳😳
THIS IS AN AWFUL CALL: #SEAHAWKS WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA MADE A MASSIVE CATCH, BUT THE REFS CALLED A BOGUS OFFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE PENALTY ON HIM.
JSN ABSOLUTELY LOST HIS MIND ON THE OFFICIALS AFTER THE CALL.
THIS IS JUST RIDICULOUS CALL.
Hal Snarr retweeted
As government grows and people on most sides of the political debates demand government punish their political enemies, we are seeing an increase in political violence. Government cannot prevent this violence; government is the violence. | @DrMarkThornton
mises.org/mises-wire/what-le…
Hal Snarr retweeted
The Brewers are being celebrated like they invented baseball.
They are doing things that have become unusual.
They have an old school tough manager who players love playing for.
They focus on basic easy to understand basic fundamentals.
They have a hitting coach that was an overachieving player for skill that played in the big leagues.
They hit the ball the other way.
They value putting the ball in play.
They adjust their approach based on situation and count.
They are not addicted to exit velocity and launch angle bullshit.
They bunt and steal bases.
They do not have selfish superstars that need to be treated like celebrities.
The Brewers simply play the game how it was meant to be played.
Hal Snarr retweeted
马斯克在聊到超级智能到底会不会统治人类时，用短短 42 秒，彻底推翻了所有人看了几十年的科幻电影设定，
他说：我们根本不配被统治。
很多人对超级智能的终极恐惧，是终结者、黑客帝国，或者被一个冷酷的机器独裁者关进赛博牢笼里发号施令。
但马斯克点破了一个极度刺骨、但也极度通透的现实：
在任何一个智慧悬殊的系统里，统治本身就是一种毫无价值的高能耗浪费。
面对一个比人类聪明几千倍、甚至几百万倍的超级智能，我们妄想去控制它、给它立规矩，无异于痴人说梦。
但它反过来也不会对统治人类产生哪怕一秒钟的兴趣。
他拿人类和黑猩猩打了个极度清醒的比方：
人类比黑猩猩聪明得多，但我们今天会专门制定一套复杂的法律，去丛林里事无巨细地管理每一只黑猩猩吗？
不会。
我们基本是随它们去，在边上划一道保护区，只要它们不妨碍现代文明的扩张，人类甚至连看都懒得看它们一眼。
统治的前提，是双方还在同一个能力维度上，需要靠权力来分配稀缺资源。
当智力差距被拉大到百万倍的断层时，人类社会的金钱、领土、政治和意识形态，在超级智能眼里连微尘都算不上。
它有它自己要去探索的星辰大海和底层物理，根本不屑于在泥潭里当猴王。
人类未来真正的风险，从来不是被恶意统治，而是被系统性无视。
就像人类修高速公路穿过森林时，铲平一个蚁穴从来不是出于仇恨，只是因为那条路刚好要从那里经过。
所以，我们需要放下做宇宙主角的虚荣心，未来的超级智能既不会恨你，也不会爱管你，如何证明自己不是那条高速公路下的蚁穴，才是人类唯一要思考的课题。
马斯克第一次公开正面回应了跟@OpenAI 诉讼案的核心实质以及跟@sama Altman的爱恨情仇，
在福布斯最新访谈里Elon聊到 OpenAI 诉讼案时，没有纠结个人恩怨，而是把整个硅谷最不敢摊开讲的一张底牌直接掀开了，
老马说：OpenAI 从非营利强行转为全面营利，正在开创一个极其危险的先例。
很多人看这场官司，以为只是创始人之间的利益撕扯，或者是马斯克因为错过千亿估值而产生的酸葡萄心理。
但马斯克在 2 分多钟里点破的核心，其实是一场动摇整个现代商业慈善根基的特洛伊木马：
如果一家由全免税、免监管的慈善捐赠催化出来、今天估值逼近 8000 亿美元的超级巨头，可以把公益外衣随手脱掉直接装进私人腰包，那么全美甚至全球现有的慈善捐赠契约，就全部从根子上死掉了。
当年 OpenAI 成立时拉着所有人入局的承诺，是一份极度崇高的使命书：
我们是非营利组织，我们为了全人类的利益研发 AGI，防止超级技术被谷歌等商业寡头私有化。
马斯克和其他捐赠人真金白银掏了几千万美元的无偿捐赠，图的不是股权分红，而是公共利益的底线。
后来为了融资买算力，Sam Altman 搞出了一个上限利润的折中结构。
当时各方妥协的关键条款写得清清楚楚：营利实体只负责赚钱还债，一旦真正的通用人工智能（AGI）实现，所有的股权和控制权必须毫无保留地退还给非营利慈善机构。
而最近所有人看到的事实是：
这个曾经用来安抚监管、安抚捐赠人的归还条款，被他们悄无声息地单方面删掉了。
以前慈善信托和免税基金之所以能存在上百年，是因为社会达成了共识：你用免税换取公益，你的成果就永远属于公众。
现在 OpenAI 示范了一条全新的暴富流水线：
先用拯救人类的非营利口号吃尽免税红利、吸纳顶级科学家的奉献和社会的无偿捐款，
等技术突破、商业壁垒铸成之后，反手修改章程，把原本属于公共财产的无价资产，合规洗成几个管理层和华尔街资本瓜分的私产。
如果这一单最终能全身而退，以后世界上就再也没有真正意义上的慈善投资了。
所有的科技巨头都会学着用非营利的幌子孵化核心资产，把研发风险留给纳税人和捐助者，把终局红利留给私人股东，
所以，这早就不是马斯克和 Sam Altman 两个人的战争了，
更像是一场关于公众信任、契约精神与硅谷资本贪婪底线的终极对决。
Hal Snarr retweeted
APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE TO ANY TENANTS READING THIS, BUT I’M NOT STAYING QUIET.
I’ve housed you for four years at $1,750 a month. You’ve never been late. You’ve never trashed it. You’ve been a solid tenant. Then I sent the renewal: rent’s going up $275.
YES.
You’ve paid me almost $84,000 over four years. That money covered the mortgage (which I’m still on the hook for if anything goes wrong), property taxes that keep rising, insurance premiums that have jumped hard, maintenance and repairs that cost more every year, and all the other costs of keeping the place habitable and legal.
The equity and any portfolio growth come from the capital I put in, the risk I took, and the fact that I own the asset, not from the rent check itself.
You’re the one writing the check every month for the right to live there. At the end of it, you own nothing because you didn’t buy it, finance it, or take on the ownership risks. I did. If the roof fails, the HVAC dies, a pipe bursts, taxes go up again, insurance spikes, or you leave and it sits vacant, that’s on me.
A $275 increase isn’t “because the market lets me.” It’s because the costs of providing the housing have gone up, insurance, taxes, labor, materials, compliance.
Recent data shows typical homeowners paying ~$1,380 a month just in maintenance, taxes, and insurance on top of the mortgage, with insurance up sharply over the last several years.
Apartment owners have been keeping only about 11 cents of every rent dollar after debt service, operations, taxes, and the rest.
Expenses have often risen faster than rents.
Stop treating landlords like a free housing subscription that never has rising costs. The rent pays for the use of the property and the service of ownership. The equity belongs to the person who bought it and bears the risk.
If you want a version where some of the money eventually becomes yours, buy your own home.
APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE TO ANY LANDLORDS READING THIS, BUT I'M NOT STAYING QUIET.
I just sent $1,750 in rent for a place I've lived in for four years. Never late. Never trashed it. Never once missed a payment.
Then the renewal email landed: rent's going up another $275 a month.
NO.
You've pulled almost $84,000 out of me over four years. That money paid your mortgage down, built your equity, funded your portfolio. And my reward for being the reliable tenant you never had to chase for rent is a bigger bill, simply because the market lets you charge one.
I'm the one writing the check every month, and at the end of all of it, I own nothing. Not a square foot of it.
If I'm covering your mortgage payment and then some, every single month, there should be a version of this where some of that money eventually becomes mine.
Stop treating good tenants like a subscription service you get to raise the price on whenever you feel like it.
Hal Snarr retweeted
Then they will have them wear helmets and pads, and install trampolines around the basket.
