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🚨 $RDDT DEEP DIVE ANALYSIS OUT $NOW
About 3 months of overall researching, 1 month of writing.
Totally worth the read! LINK IN BIO AND COMMENT 👇
Reddit is in a very interesting situation, that can be quite ironic - its prescious data from 20+ years of genuine human interaction are important for AI, yet the revalance of the platform itself might gradually diminish precisely because of AI.
Reddit has a lot of gold in its safe. The problem is, the door of that safe is vastly operated by Google. You can have a lot of gold but if the door to access it is shut, you’re still poor.
On one hand, extraordinary growth, margins and balance sheet. On the other hand, less clear reporting of key metrics, SBC, insiders selling and governance structure we’re not particularly fans of.
So, is Reddit currently a buy? Read our full detailed analysis for free to find out! :)
Let us know what you think!
Thank you for reading!
Sold my $HOOD position back in June.
My avg price was $33.21 per share.
Do you think it was sound or a mistake?
You know shit is getting serious when "long-term investors" switch from YTD screenshots to 1Y or 3Y screenshots lol
Our latest article about $GOOGL earnings can be found here for free (as everything on our Substack):
hatedmoats.substack.com/p/go…
Bro is this 2023 all over again?
People really do have memory of a goldfish...
$GOOGL
This.
And $GOOGL will come on top, as always.
It is indeed a knife fight.
It's just that Google is providing a venue for the event and doesn't need to fight.
If it ever needs to fight, it'll bring guns to this said knife fight.
$RDDT and many others might be genuinely cooked.
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
If I didn't own $GOOGL since 2011 and had no position, I would start one now.
Most people will FOMO in once it's back at $400+ per share.
That's what separates winners from the rest.
This is not a financial advice, but it is a conviction test.
If I had a dollar every time I've heard this about Google's search in some way in the past 15+ years, I could buy a whole $GOOGL share by now with that money.
Fewer clicks don't necessarily mean less revenue for Google.
AI Overviews increasingly answer queries directly, and that's reducing the need to visit external websites.
Why would you click further if you don't have to?
But Google still controls the search, the user attention, and the advertising opportunity...
The company could see fewer outbound clicks while generating more revenue per search, particularly for commercially valuable queries.
"How tall is Mount Everest?" -> zero clicks because zero clicks are needed.
"What's the best SUV sub $60k?" -> relevant click to relevant advertiser.
Of course, this depends on whether $GOOG can monetise AI interactions as effectively as traditional search, which remains an open question and no one knows the answer - so making "sure thing" claims is pointless.
The irony is that zero-click searches could be devastating for publishers and websites dependent on Google traffic (hi $RDDT and many, many more), while actually strengthening Google's own position.
What's bad for the rest of the internet isn't necessarily bad for Google.
People tend to forget over and over that out of all companies, Google is the closest one to actually being THE internet...
I see many people think $GOOG’s flat Q/Q search revenue is just a noise and it’ll reaccelerate again.
It won’t, not in a sustainable way.
Zero click searches now make up 68% of all searches and it’ll only go up.
Revenue opportunity in search is diminishing year by year.
On its way...
If $APP dips to $200, I'll dip my tip in it, if you know what I mean.
Will it get there?
Wait how is $META DOWN YTD after all that hype?
Was all that X shitposting by the billionaire AI kid useless?
