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Cheers to a happy & healthy 2026! Below are all timestamped Long/Short ideas for 2025 and vs respective benchmarks. Appreciate everyone's support.
Our average return per idea (active & closed ideas) is 16%. 76% hit rate. Short ideas accounted for 41% of all ideas.
For tech research subscription, see below. We're adding a new product in 2026, geared for traders. Stay tuned.
insights.hedgeye.com/global-…
$NVDA $CRWV $NBIS $SE $BABA $TCEHY $AAPL $POET $ONTO 5930.KR $MU $DIDIY $SITM $MNSO $WYFI $MPNGY $XIACY $VRT $VRNS $PDD $AMAT
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
“Total demand for your tokens may be going up, but if the price is flat or falling, then you’re not making more money.”
Global Technology Sector Head Felix Wang @HedgeyeTech explains why Chinese AI competition threatens Anthropic's growth.
Read the full article 👇
We have been more cautious on the AI trade in the past 2 months, which is why we have been removing some of our top AI winners or even flipping to Short.
This year, we have been early in identifying key, concerning themes in global LLMs - examples include: 1) Anthropic’s growth missing the buyside bar for Q3 (which happened this week) (see our presentation: OpenAI>Anthropic in Q3 2026; 2) Chinese open-weight models unleashing a brutal, global price war; 3) model distillation distorting the frontier race; 4) monetization debate: spend matters a lot more than tokens; 5) commoditization risk with intelligence and cost; 6) quick end to tokenmaxxing; 7) which LLM is good enough to do the work; 8) model fatigue; 9) AI bubbles in China. See our previous AI decks for more details. As a result, sky high growth expectations need to be cut. Our global LLM database has expanded to 1,034 models.
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
I thought $NVDA GPUs are banned in China … wife material.
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
ANTHROPIC’S IPO VALUATION EXPECTATIONS DROP FROM $2 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION
Some investors are considering a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, down 25% from earlier expectations of $2 trillion.
Anthropic reported $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up 45% quarter-over-quarter, but growth slowed sharply after revenue more than doubled in Q2.
The company also reported adjusted profitability for the quarter.
The key concern: Slowing revenue growth and rising AI infrastructure costs could weigh on one of the most anticipated IPOs.
Source: Reuters Exclusive
Decent gathering at $SMTC Investor Day …I’m stopping by since it’s close to OCP
We will unveil our takeaways from @OpenComputePrj next Tuesday to clients —including a big finding on compute that I don’t think is factored into the market yet
So revs QoQ slowed from 140% to 46%…maybe Q3 ARR is only $68bn?
Anthropic revenue jumps to $16.8bn in third quarter ft.trib.al/lvCLXoo
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
Tourists are all over $CRWV now. @HedgeyeTech has been The Bear for a while - it was a focus name on our recent AI Bubble "Big Theme" presentation too
Scary comments from $CRWV (our #1 Short):
1) Co-founder McBee said stronger investment-grade credit ratings could help the company borrow from insurers, whose capital "is unlimited."
2)CoreWeave is evaluating additional delayed-draw term loans
3)"If we stop building today, [we’d be] immensely cash-flow positive" - hmmm, not necessarily true
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Sell-side loves $ANET (it's Citi's #1 pick) and much more concerned about $MRVL. We like the opposite - Marvell has outperformed Arista by 100% since our pair trade in April. I'm off to @OpenComputePrj conference soon - there is a session that I think could make some Arista bulls nervous...
Why is no one saying $AAPL is a bubble? We're Short. Our bear thesis played out in a big way last quarter - we think it will continue as Apple's supercycle bursts. We wrote about the weak lead times for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max last month. We're working on two critical data sets: our global inventory checker (iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max) and our social barometer for the iPhone Duo. We will unveil the results later this month.
We're trying something new, specifically for traders called Trader's Diary. These are rapid fire headlines on tickers in our global tech ecosystem, along with Keith's quant signals on relevant tickers. Moreover, we share short interest data across our coverage space every 2 weeks - what funds are shorting and buying/covering. And 3 daily trades.
