Pro Investor @etoro. Public portfolio: https://xitter.cf/t.co/eLmlyNbBoD Ex Private Equity and M&A professional.
Joined April 2021
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Hugo Manenti retweeted
On the plus side, they've already successfully disrupted half of their business. On the minus side... still half to go.
Assuming $550m of debt repayment each year, the 2028-29 maturity wall is not as bad as it seems.
~$500m bond refi + extending the securitization facility should be enough. Whenever that is done => major shareholder returns are possible.
I think the plan is clear - get to early 2028 with accelerating growth (H2 2027 guide) and leverage close to 2.0x, secure the refi at attractive rates, and then reward shareholders.
It was well known that flows out of Hormuz were normalising pretty fast - although the new data is pretty cool.
That's only half of the story though. The other half is - at what cost and what does it imply for the price of the marginal barrel?
Hint: the 2027 strip is still higher than back in April/May when flows were close to zero.
Handy new dashboard from @Kpler on full Middle Eastern liquids flows (Hormuz, GoO STS, Red Sea, etc.).
Might also go to this latest oil market selloff given that 1) the numbers are high!, and 2) pretty well every oil trader just got a morning email highlighting this addition.
My only nitpick is that 18 MMbpd "pre-war clearance" average pace; Gulf OPEC production quotas rose by >2 MMbpd over that period, so I'll still be using ~21-22 MMbpd (ex-Iran) as my "return to normal" clearance bar.
But as these numbers make clear, we're getting close to those prewar levels, even if currently precarious and at immense expense.
Hugo Manenti retweeted
Agreed!
One thing I find interesting - so far call centres have only worked for businesses, interacting with human customers.
If they now also work FOR customers (e.g. calling businesses on their behalf), that's a pretty large TAM expansion.
If the CX agent costs $5 per hour (at the high end), it makes a lot of financial sense for a US/EU customer to outsource their calls to them - money recovered is a lot higher than that.
The irony of $META using $CNXC and $TEP.PA human agents to make "AI" phone calls 🤣
"Tests indicated having humans make the calls could get their success rate up to the 95% to 98% range, instead of the "lower percentage of AI calling."
reuters.com/business/meta-te…
$AMTM another example of a company executing nicely, growing backlog and margins, and yet hated by the market because of one offs / third derivatives.
8x forward earnings is nonsensical. I expect a large buyback commencing next quarter.
Exposure to nuclear, energy, space etc. provides a long runway as projects ramp.
Iran is demonstrating control of the Strait, Trump admitted the oil market was just 4 weeks away from disaster, we are still seeing record draws... and WTI is about to trade with a 6 handle?
Hmmmm
Good to know that when financial conditions tighten, we can seek shelter in the most expensive corners of the market