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Looks like everybody is on Detmers tonight so... here's my thoughts on it. o6.5 Ks +104, 8.0 Median Profile: High | Tail-Driven Split Influence: Boost Lineup: Confirmed 7 RHH | 2 LHH The confirmed lineup was an upgrade over the projected: Lopez (8% adjusted, the biggest dampener on the slate) and Diaz are both out, replaced by Langford and Osuna Detmers's putaway rates: Against RHH: slider 27.9%, curveball 24.3%, four seam 15.6%, changeup 14.7%. Against LHH: four seam 22.0%, curveball 23.1%, slider 16.1%. The slider vs righties is the finisher, and the location map shows exactly where it finishes: the heaviest below zone on the map(39%) sits backfoot to RHH. The four seam works the top of the zone withabove zone concentration arm side, the curve drops into the lower middle and buries glove side, and the changeup lives almost entirely down and away from righties (the 52% arm side cell plus a 14% below zone) 1. Justin Foscue, (R) rawK: 23% KADJ: 30% The sample is thin throughout for Foscue so take all of this with a grain of salt. 54.5% K rate vs four seamers over 11 PA with a 30.8% CSW, and a 21.4% putaway allowed on four seamers, which clears Detmers's own 15.6% FF conversion and makes it the best overlap. The slider sample is a warning, 10 PA with a .486 xwOBA and .500 ISO against, and insufficient two strike slider data. His map runs teal across the bottom band (42/34/44), but the pitch data says the finish liekly comes upstairs, so the low teal likely reflects called strikes on breaking balls building the count rather than the putaway itself. Putaway overlap: Foscue FF 21.4% × Detmers FF vs R 15.6%, the only solid pairing. Strikeout pitch prediction: four seam at the top, arm side. Backfoot slider is the fallback only because it is the fallback against every righty in this lineup. 2. Wyatt Langford, (R) rawK: 30% KADJ: 27% Langford entering the confirmed lineup is a big change from the projected, and the fit is great for the ladder. Against changeups he has a 46.3% K rate with a 51.7% whiff, a 29.2% putaway allowed, and a .195 xwOBA over 41 PA (albeit 9% usage from Detmers). The slider is solid as well, a 27.6% K rate with a 38.5% chase and 23.5% putaway, and it will carry the early count volume at 31% usage. The complication is that Detmers's changeup is his least trusted pitch to righties, 9% usage with a 14.7% putaway, so this prediction requires him to actually use it. Putaway overlap: Langford CH 29.2% × Detmers CH vs R 14.7% on low usage; Langford SL 23.5% × Detmers SL vs R 27.9% as the volume route. Strikeout pitch prediction: changeup dying down and away, off the arm side edge, if Detmers goes to it. 3. Brandon Nimmo (L), rawK: 21% KADJ: 22% As a lefty, Nimmo gets the 45% slider usage, his numbers against it: 28.8% K rate, 31.2% whiff, 37.8% chase, 20.4% putaway, and a .231 xwOBA, which lines up almost perfect with Detmers's lefty slider (33.7% whiff, 37.1% chase). The four seam gives a second look at a 27.1% K rate with an 18.4% putaway allowed against Detmers's 22.0% lefty FF conversion, so the elevated heater is a genuine "co-finisher" rather than just a setup pitch Putaway overlap: Nimmo SL 20.4% × Detmers SL vs L 16.1%; Nimmo FF 18.4% × Detmers FF vs L 22.0%. Neither dominates, but both are viable. Strikeout pitch prediction: slider down and away, chased off the glove side corner. Four seam at the letters is the called or swinging alternate. 4. Josh Jung, (R) rawK: 12% KADJ: 16% toughest out among the confirmed lineup, the two strike numbers explain it, putaway allowed of 13.7% on four seamers, 10.5% on changeups, 16.1% on curves, 9.1% on sinkers. The slider is the lone exception at 25.9% putaway allowed with a 36.7% chase vs curves as a secondary option. His damage comes from the heater (.382 xwOBA, .226 ISO), so climbing the ladder against him might not be best idea... The map is red nearly everywhere with a 55% CSW pocket middle-in, which is a location Detmers should probably avoid anyway. Putaway overlap: Jung SL 25.9% × Detmers SL vs R 27.9%, the only pairing above water, and everything else is a foul or a ball in play. Strikeout pitch prediction: backfoot slider in the dirt, and it probably takes a called strike curve earlier in the count to get there. Low conviction. 5. Jake Burger (R), rawK: 28% KADJ: 23% The adjustment down to 23% is my modeling correctly reading a "foul ball" profile. Burger whiffs plenty (34.2% vs sliders, 33.9% vs changeups) but converts poorly on those pitches vs LHP, a 14.8% putaway allowed on sliders, so the slider builds counts against him without finishing him. Where he actually dies is the hard stuff up and the curve down: a 26.3% putaway allowed on four seamers with a 34.3% chase, and a 28.6% putaway allowed on curves over a small 14 pitch two-strike sample. Putaway overlap: Burger FF 26.3% × Detmers FF vs R 15.6%; Burger CU 28.6% × Detmers CU vs R 24.3%. Strikeout pitch prediction: curveball buried at the bottom of the zone, glove side, after sliders have run the count. Elevated four seam is the secondary if he starts cheating low. 6. Ezequiel Duran (R), rawK: 24% KADJ: 28% Duran's two strike vulnerability is the curve, a 26.7% putaway allowed with a monstrous 52.8% chase vs curveballs, paired against Detmers's 24.3% curve conversion. That is the best joint putaway number on the entire card. The four seam remains the second route, a 38.3% K rate over 47 PA with a .215 xwOBA and a 22.8% putaway allowed. The changeup and slider are quiet against him (11.4% and 15.0% putaway allowed), so the finish is specifically hard-up or curve-down. Putaway overlap: Duran CU 26.7% × Detmers CU vs R 24.3%, best on the card; Duran FF 22.8% × Detmers FF vs R 15.6% behind it. Strikeout pitch prediction: curveball in the dirt, chased below the zone. The 52.8% chase rate makes this the single most predictable strikeout 7. Kyle Higashioka (R), rawK: 21% KADJ: 21% One pitch, one location. Higgy's putaway allowed on sliders is 31.8%, the highest two strike vulnerability among the nine, sitting on top of a 46.7% K rate and 46.4% whiff vs the pitch, and it crosses with Detmers's best conversion number (27.9% slider putaway vs righties). Everything else is contact, 8.1% whiff vs four seamers, a 10.4% putaway allowed on changeups. Detmers's below the zone slider cluster to righties finishes exactly where Higgy's hole is. Putaway overlap: Higashioka SL 31.8% × Detmers SL vs R 27.9%, the strongest pitcher side pairing in the game. Strikeout prediction: backfoot slider in the dirt 8. Cameron Cauley (R), rawK 22% KADJ 22% Only 20 big league PAs for Cauley, 10% K rate, 25% K rate in a much larger 290 sample in MiLB this year, treating him as league average. Not much to read into here. 9. Alejandro Osuna (L), rawK: 16% KADJ: 22% Osuna replaces Nicky Lopez, which converts the lineup's worst K slot (8% adjusted) into a feasible but still tough K spot, and that swap alone explains a chunk of the mean moving up. The vs-LHP sample is small but distinctive. His CSW allowed is 44.4% on four seamers and 42.1% on sinkers, on tiny whiff rates (5.9% vs sinkers yes I know Detmers barely throws sinkers, that's not the point here), meaning the strikes are called, not swung through. The slider has a 37.5% K rate over 8 PA (noise) with a 30.0% putaway allowed across 10 two strike pitches (again, noise). Against a lefty throwing 45% sliders and holding a 32.4% CSW on the four seam to lefties, a take heavy young hitter accumulated called strikes... hopefully we can get him to chase the tunneled slider after a couple called strikes on the heater. Putaway overlap: Osuna SL 30.0% × Detmers SL vs L 16.1% on small samples both sides; the FF CSW profile adds a called strike 3 route the overlap table doesn't fully capture.. Strikeout pitch prediction: slider down and away for the swinging version, but the alternate is a four seam taken at the top of the zone for a called strike three