1% of America had diabetes in 1958 13% today, plus 35% are pre-diabetic Reason? All the “healthy snacks” we eat that are just added sugar and refined flour (in almost all supermarket packaged foods) including sodas, juices, yogurts, cookies, frozen pizzas, etc.

Adjusting for $GOOG excess cash, the stock is at 17x trailing earnings. Looking forward it could generate $7 in EPS a couple years out (consensus is $7.34 EPS in FY 24) $7 in EPS means 11x earnings, adjusted for excess cash

Would be great if CEOs/CFOs of fast-growing tech companies could articulate a long-term thesis for their stock, publicly, like Elon Musk did in February 2015:

Loretta Mester says we are not yet in restrictive territory, as measured by 1-year out inflation expectations. Yet FF rates are 3.25% right now, and 1-year swaps (blue) are at 2.4%. She's pointing at her dot plots; I'm pointing at the betting markets of swaps. Who's right?

11 years ago Robin Hanson speculated that if we reached a tech singularity, the world economy could double every 1-2 weeks. @elonmusk just proposed a robot that could increase economic output 100x or more. If we solve the robotics and AI, we could get limitless economic growth.

A long Howard Marks memo about the futility of forecasting, without the nuance of considering the success of *some* well-calibrated forecasters as explained in Expert Political Judgment and Superforecasting (and the more recent research by Philip Tetlock). 🤷🏻‍♂️

UK will kick our butts on nuclear. "Energy policy over the past decades has not focused enough on securing supply. There’s no better example than nuclear, where the UK has not built a single new nuclear reactor in 25 years."

The White House wants fewer emissions from crypto. Here's an idea: get rid of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which wastes ~$1 billion of taxpayer money every year blocking nuclear at every turn, so we can get clean nuclear energy as a bigger % of our total energy mix

$OKTA has suffered from a string of execution issues over the past couple of years, coupled with too much spending and too little profitability. Can it be fixed? memosbyhh.com/oktas-executio…

What would happen if Benioff revisited Ammachi, the hugging saint, and she told him this time to hug Salesforce stock? $CRM memosbyhh.com/salesforces-be…

Stripe is moving upmarket into the enterprise, and Adyen is moving towards SMBs. Both are building the Lego pieces for "Banking as a Service": memosbyhh.com/stripe-vs-adye…

$GM is reinstating its dividend ($525m/yr) and doing a $5bn stock buyback, all while it needs to invest >$35 billion in electrification. Is this decision:

$TWLO has a gross margin target of 60-65%. Total gross margins now are 47% and most of its revenues (messaging) have gross margins ~35%. How fast will SaaS revenue have to grow to reach 60% GM in 5 years? memosbyhh.com/twilios-margin…

$SQ (Block) has chosen to vertically integrate to a much greater extent than $SHOP and as a result, gets a lot more revenue and gross profits. Both companies have similar market caps, EVs and GMV/GPV:

And a follow-up: "Even if we granted Shopify its peak 18 percent free cash flow margin on this year’s estimated revenues, at a 25x earnings multiple the stock would be priced 36 percent lower than the current price of $38—and that’s after a 73 percent decline this year."

Both $SAIL and $PING have barely made any money since becoming publicly traded companies. Why is Thoma Bravo buying them? My guess is they'll merge both companies and eliminate a lot of costs. memosbyhh.com/ping-and-sailp…

Estimating gross margins for $TWLO's messaging business:

New post: Can $SHOP justify its current valuation? memosbyhh.com/tesla-and-shop…

Kind of amazed at how right @elonmusk's investment thesis was in February 2015.

New post on $SHOP: How it makes money, and not enough, given its market share of ecommerce; and implications for investors: memosbyhh.com/shopify-a-rake…