Last night, the exit polls told one story: Netanyahu had lost, but it wasn’t clear who on the other side had won. This morning, the results are telling another. Netanyahu hasn’t won yet, but the change bloc has clearly lost. Also, the suspicious sky rocketing Arab vote. All in today's edition of It's Noon in Israel. open.substack.com/pub/amitse…

Israel election update: Not finished with the counting yet, and every single seat matters here. Whether Netanyahu's 'bloc' ends up on 57 or 53 matters greatly. Netanyahu's party is going to end up as the largest party by some margin. It is clear @kann_news @N12News and @newsisrael13 have been producing misleading and possibly ideologically driven polls for the last few years - that skew badly against the Likud. Given polling can influence an electorate - there should be a serious investigation into whether this was just incompetence, or something more sinister. This matters. In the end it appears @i24NEWS_HE have been closest all along. Netanyahu will not have a natural 61 seats needed to form a functioning coalition. Much of this is personality driven. In reality most of the "change" bloc could ideologically sit with Netanyahu to form a wide and stable government, but the feeling of "enough" has created real frustration in opposition parties. The inability to unseat Netanyahu because of the system makes the current Israeli situation particularly bitter and without much parallel. The leader of the largest opposition party @gadi_eisenkot has learnt nothing from history, and presented a victory speech based on partial and misleading exit polls. Beyond highlighting his inexperience, it did not tell us much. Western media wants change, and so much of the reporting was focused on this. They skewed the reporting to paint an anti-Netanyahu picture that simply fell apart as the night progessed. Being on the inside and understanding Israeli politics as I do - it really was embarrasing to watch such ideologically driven and incorrect hogwash present itself as "expert" commentary. If the results hold - it would be electorally difficult for the change bloc to depend so totally on the Arab parties for survival. If they had received a strong result (in the mid 50s), theoretically they could have tried minority rule - but if they remain in the late 40's, it would be almost impossibe to sell this to the electorate. The dependency would be too great - moreso during a period of conflict. The final results may even be slightly stronger for Netanyahu's bloc as the "soldier''s votes" are yet to be counted. And they traditionally swing right. The post-Oct 7 situation may even enhance this. In an adult world, the parties that represent the vast majority of the Israeli electorate would form a united front capable of dealing with all of the existential questions that Israel needs to face. The numbers are there. The sad reality is that the hostility Netanyahu faces, may render that impossible. The President is likely to hand the baton to Netanyahu first, as leader of the largest party, to see if he can form a government. His party are likely to test the resolve of parts of the opposition to see if some will jump ship. If Netanyahu fails, Eisenkot will go next. In the likely event neither work - pressure will be applied to find a compromise. Repeat elections are not likely to work out well for the opposition. This result really was the best they are capable of doing - and it does not look nearly good enough. And does Israel really want to be having another election with Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas still unfinished. It really needs stable goverment - and one that can handle pressure from Europe. I am not going to guess what happens next - and I am here to explain based on the evidence- not to give personal opinion. First - wait for the final score - EVERY SINGLE SEAT MATTERS.

'So if there are 61 seats, then Hamas is a terror organization?' @ariel_oseran presses Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas on making his willingness to call Hamas a terrorist group conditional on a place in a governing coalition