Retired Fixed Income Arbitrage Trader & Bond Mkt Warrior. Content is not advice, views are mine. "They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it" - BRV
Jupiter / Palm Beach FL
Joined July 2012
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Dec Gold Futures Eyeballing that $4,000 level again!
A close below would make things more interesting for #Gold and #PreciousMetals
Just thinking out loud:
If there is a huge energy generation and supply shortage to run all the planned Data Centers and Hyperscale facilities that have made all kinds of commitments to spend Billions of dollars and buy Billions of dollars worth of Semiconductors, why are they not securing the power and infrastructure to generate and transmit what they can not exist with out. Will lack of Power be their Achilles heel.................
Classic 1) Buy the Dip, 2) Buy what many think and or hope is the range bottom (Bargain Basement) and support level, and 3) similar to tech stocks, buy the big discount to the recent much higher prices seen. Both Gold and Silver are at chart support lows, Silver actually probing below the support level.
There is a massive GAP between gold demand and gold prices:
Physical-gold backed ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have recorded 14 consecutive WEEKS of inflows. $GLD
This has brought gold ETF holdings to nearly 102 million troy ounces, their highest level since mid-2022.
However, over the same period, gold prices have declined -1%, after rising as much as +16% before falling -14% from their local highs. $GLDM
Long-term gold investors appear to be taking advantage of this accumulation opportunity to hedge against fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the constant erosion of currency purchasing power.
At the same time, short-term gold price movements reflect interest-rate expectations shaped by oil prices and FX movements, as well as technical factors.
Smart money is accumulating gold at a historic pace.
Gold better Hold here if folks don't wanna see a visit to $3,600. Again, If CB's are buying it up like the longs say they are, why is it flirting with $4,000........
Silver Futures
All the Hype looks to have been just that, hype!!!!
Bounce or no bounce the longs have gotten rinsed!
To me this is like a conflict of interest as the fund sponsor is increasing its management fee revenue.
Bad move in Muni Land:
Nuveen Municipal High Income Oppty Fund $NMZ announced rights offering yesterday to subscribe for additional shares at a discount to the market price, resulting it dropping $0.42 today (4.64%). It has 41.7% leverage and has had to Return Capital as part of it's monthly distributions this year to maintain the payout, currently 8.6%, so I don't get it.
Bad move in Muni Land:
Nuveen Municipal High Income Oppty Fund $NMZ announced rights offering yesterday to subscribe for additional shares at a discount to the market price, resulting it dropping $0.42 today (4.64%). It has 41.7% leverage and has had to Return Capital as part of it's monthly distributions this year to maintain the payout, currently 8.6%, so I don't get it.
Electric Vertical Take OFF Transportation Names seem to have crashed, not literally, just share price wise!
I always say, history shows Treasury Complex luv's to overshoot when it goes seeking a new level. The verdict may still be out, many hope it's in!
December Gold Futures print LOD at $4,000.9
a close below $4k will inflict some psychological damage; will be interested to hear what the secular Bullish (CB's are buying) folks have to say (respond)~!!!!
We have a BINGO, and a break on through to the other side of 5%!
UST 10 Yr Notes 4.974% (-17.2 bp's)
UST 10 Yr Notes Eyeballing 5% (5.04%)!
This is coming way down from the recent highs, and deserves attention. When it was 4.75-4.80%, many folks thought the 5 handle was out of the question. Once it tagged it, it was likely to over shoot as Treasuries have historically loved to do. The verdict is still out as to whether or not the overshoot is in and this is just a pullback for now.
UST 10 Yr Notes Eyeballing 5% (5.04%)!
This is coming way down from the recent highs, and deserves attention. When it was 4.75-4.80%, many folks thought the 5 handle was out of the question. Once it tagged it, it was likely to over shoot as Treasuries have historically loved to do. The verdict is still out as to whether or not the overshoot is in and this is just a pullback for now.
Metals:
Silver looks like it may have a moment of truth on tap....
Most of the Bulls have shut up, gone silent, and gotten run over.
If you are going to establish a speculative long and think about averaging in (down), you might wanna think twice and manage carefully because you will be in the company of others.
Metals:
Both Gold and Silver Futures are bumping up against key support levels after having rallied off of them this summer. Most of the stuff you will read and hear is bullish biased with Central Banks buying/accumulating gold, and the industrial structural supply/demand imbalance (shortage) in silver. If this was the case, you have to wonder how and why they are now where they are. #Metals #Gold #Silver
