The Disciplined Investor

>Be Leopold Aschenbrenner >24 years old >Born ~2001/2002 in Germany >Son of two doctors >Attend the John F. Kennedy School in Berlin >Convince your parents to let you fly alone to the U.S. and enroll at Columbia University at age 15 >Graduate valedictorian in 2021 at age 19 with a B.A. in economics and mathematics-statistics >Co-found Columbia’s effective altruism chapter >Do research at Oxford’s Global Priorities Institute and co-author papers on long-term risks >Join the FTX Future Fund in 2022, then resign before the collapse >Land on OpenAI’s Superalignment team in 2023 under Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike >Write an internal security memo warning about industrial espionage and China risks >Get fired in April 2024 over an alleged information leak (which you dispute) >Two months later drop a 165-page manifesto titled Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead predicting AGI around 2027 and runaway superintelligence >Watch it go wildly viral (even Ivanka Trump praises it) >Found Situational Awareness LP in late 2024 with ~$225 million, backed by the Collison brothers, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross and others Bet heavily on AI infrastructure—power, memory chips, data-center proxies, Bitcoin miners, CoreWeave, Nebius, Bloom Energy, Micron, Sandisk and more—while running high leverage >Compound the fund to an estimated $20–24 billion AUM by mid-2026 with ~439% net gains since inception >Get engaged to Avital Balwit (chief of staff to Anthropic’s CEO) and live in San Francisco >Then, in late July 2026, after a brutal AI stock rout (many positions down >35%), shorts moving against you, and margin pressure from up to 4x leverage, liquidate the entire public equity book—longs and shorts—in one massive block trade to a single buyer And he did it all by writing a prophetic essay, going all-in on the power-and-compute bottleneck, and riding the AI wave harder and faster than almost anyone. Leopold Aschenbrenner is absolutely insane