TheInvisibleBridge

No immediate action is expected until Iran announces findings of a formal investigation unequivocally assigning responsibility to Israel, and regional commercial air traffic is cleared >> The Islamic Republic of Iran has vowed a fierce response following the targeted eliminations of Fuad Shukr, a senior commander of Hizbullah, in Beirut on the night of July 30th, and Ismail Haniyeh, the politburo leader of Hamas, a few hours later in Tehran. However, sufficiently empowered factions within the Islamic Republic of Iran place importance on international relations forums as they provide the regime with platform to advocate for its interests, project its narrative on the global stage and counteract sanctions. —— International Legal Considerations Under the United Nations Charter, Article 51 allows for self-defense if an armed attack occurs, until the Security Council takes measures to maintain international peace and security. Before taking military action, a state must establish clear evidence of the attack and the perpetrator. In this case, Iran's announcement of a formal investigation and the assignment of responsibility to Israel would fulfill this requirement. Additionally, under international humanitarian law (IHL), Iran is expected to wait until commercial air traffic has been cleared from the line of attack before initiating such a major military operation, a precautionary measure aimed at avoiding collateral damage. Closed airspace is a primary indicator of preparations for military action in this context. These are two hard data points to watch for in assessing if and when Tehran’s response is likely to occur. —— Psychological Warfare In the meantime, Tehran’s leadership is leveraging the anticipated attack and threats of regional conflagration to wage psychological warfare on Israel and the West. Iranian Foreign Affairs Advisor “Mohammad Marandi” in a tweet via X, warning Tel-Aviv's residents to leave. The post featuring images of launched ballistic missiles read, “Leave. It’s coming,” garnering 1.5 million views. A thoughtful thread explains how the media is falling into this trap, saying “Iran is using the media - globally and locally in Israel - to create anxiety and stress as a way to make Israel weaker.” See: “Psychological terrorism is our greatest weakness” - teapawt.org/galg_il/status/1820017… —— Tehran’s Ongoing Investigations However, Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s elimination and according to reports by The Economist and The New York Times, Tehran is “full of rumors about suspected collaborators” as the exact circumstances surrounding Haniyeh’s death remain unclear amid a series of shifting narratives. The New York Times reported that several dozen individuals, including senior military officers and intelligence officials have been detained in Iran for interrogation. The Iranian parliament devoted a meeting to the circumstances of Haniyeh's killing, while media outlets report that the ongoing investigation, focused on the internal security failure, is examining “the possibility of inside involvement.” While its status remains unclear, footage from Tehran’s parliamentary meetings revealed members chanting “Marg bar Esra’il” (death to Israel) during a session held to investigate the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Its outcome can be expected to reflect this sentiment. See: “The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament chanted “Marg bar Esra’il” (death to Israel) during a session held to investigate the killing of Ismail Haniyeh.” - teapawt.org/DanLinnaeus/status/182… —— Operation True Promise 2.0 On July 1, IRGC Aerospace Commander, Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh said, 'We are eagerly looking forward to any opportunity for carrying out Operation True Promise 2.0, and this next operation will be much larger and greater in every aspect.' This statement came two weeks after the April 13 attacks which involved 320 projectiles which the IRGC dubbed operation “True Promise”. The attack involved 170 ballistic missiles, 120 drones and 30 cruise missiles in response to the targeted elimination of IRGC Brigadier General Zahedi at a building annex to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria. The ballistic missiles included models such as the Emad, Kheibar Shekan, and Ghadr. The cruise missiles most likely involved were from the Paveh family, known for their precision and ability to evade radar systems. The drones used in the attack were primarily Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 variants, which are known for their loitering capabilities and precision strike potential. The attack marked one of the most extensive single-day assaults, targeting various locations within Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that 99% of these projectiles were intercepted, minimizing the impact on the ground. Open source reports indicated that the IRGC’s Operation True Promise 2.0, in coordination with allied groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq,is preparing to launch up to 1,500 missiles and 1,000 drones against Israel—eight times larger in scale than the April 13 attack. This would mark one of the largest coordinated attacks in history and the most extensive planned assault on Israel. In the last twenty four hours Iranian officials communicated to Arab diplomats that Iran is unconcerned if its response to Israel results in regional war. Concurrently an Iranian official told Al-Jazeera that Iran’s response will be significant, aiming to inflict substantial damage. “Our response will not be a symbolic response; we are planning to make the enemy pay a heavy price this time,” the official told the Qatari media outlet. Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told the Huffpost that “Iran’s retaliation is imminent, but I believe it will take a few more days to coordinate,” noting that while the exact timing and method are uncertain, Iran seeks revenge and is prepared to risk escalation, believing the U.S. will only intercept drones to defend Israel. —— Hezbollah’s Role in Shaping Operations In the interim, periodic rocket attacks on Israel's northern border by Hizbullah can be viewed as serving strategic and tactical purposes directly aligned with the Islamic Republic’s approach. First, these attacks are designed to exacerbate anxiety and psychological pressure on Israel and its populace, in alignment with Tehran’s broader strategy to degrade political will within Israel. Second, Hizbullah seeks to deter Israel's preemptive strikes designed to disrupt its operational capabilities, including drone-based operations. By degrading Israeli air defense systems through localized Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) operations, Hizbullah aims to shape the operational environment of True Promise 2.0 and impact Israel’s ability to track the origins of launch sites. Israel has an advanced network of ground-based radar systems capable of detecting and tracking incoming missiles and rockets. This network identifies the trajectory and potential origin of launches, providing real-time data for interception and building an offensive intelligence picture. Israel's recent airstrike at the Al Dabaa airport near Al Qusayr in Syria targeted a key Hezbollah commander involved in the Iranian drone program. This action aligns with Israel's strategy of preemptive strikes to disrupt and weaken the Islamic Republic and its Axis of Resistance militias’ abilities to execute drone-based operations in any “True Promise 2.0” operations. See: Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted an airstrike targeting the Al-Dabaa Airport in Syria, near the Al-Qasir area of the Homs province on the Lebanon-Syria border, aimed at disrupting Hezbollah and Iranian missile depots and logistical links - teapawt.org/DanLinnaeus/status/181… According to ALMA research, Hezbollah has launched 2,560 attacks in northern Israel since October 8 with almost half targeting civilians. These have involved “more than six thousand five hundred rockets, hundreds of UAVs and over one thousand anti-tank missiles,” according to Israel’s UN Ambassador. These attacks have been marked by an increase in the number of attacks deeper into Israel, targeting non-evacuated areas more than 5 kilometers from the northern border. The attacks are responsible for “killing dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians and forcing over eighty thousand Israelis to evacuate their homes from the north of Israel,” said Israeli representative, Jonathan Miller, at the United Nations Security Council in remarks delivered last week. See: ALMA RESEARCH | 2,560 attacks in northern Israel since October 8 with almost half targeting civilians, involving “more than six thousand five hundred rockets, hundreds of UAVs and over one thousand anti-tank missiles,” according to Israel’s UN Ambassador. - teapawt.org/DanLinnaeus/status/181…