French-English despite the name. Covers foreign affairs for Reuters in Paris, lots of other bits. views my own etc, Arsenal fan for my sins

Paris, France
Joined June 2010
Inadvertent salute to Belgium's World Cup victory over U.S.? #NATO
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I think it’s kind of simple. They are conflating what they hope will happen with what Iran has actually committed to. Probably deliberately. Their argument is they have economic leverage to get Iran to maximum concessions. As if the last 20 years didn’t exist.
1/I listened to the senior Trump administration officials' call about the latest with Iran. I am in some ways more confused now than before the call. A few thoughts:
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Come on Arsenal!
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John Irish retweeted
This belongs to all of us.
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“It’s not done”. It is now 🏆🥳🙌🍾
🎥 This moment is going to be played again and again for years to come. Declan Rice knew.
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CHAMPIONS - Good to be a gooner!
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John Irish retweeted
Confirming what Iranian official told me: Asked about reporting that Iran said significant differences remain, Trump said: "Well, there could be, let's see what happens. If there are, we'll have to straighten it out. But I don't think there's too many significant differences."👇
(Reuters) - Significant differences between Iran and the United States remain to reach a deal aimed at ending the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday, adding that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is "conditional on U.S. adherence to the terms of ceasefire". The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said "no agreement has been reached on the details of the nuclear issues," and serious negotiations are required to overcome differences. He said Tehran hoped that a preliminary agreement could be reached in the coming days with mediator Pakistan’s efforts, with the possibility of extending the ceasefire to "create space for more talks on lifting sanctions on Iran and securing compensation for war damages". "In exchange, Iran will provide assurances to the international community about the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme," he said, adding that any other "narrative about the ongoing talks is a misrepresentation of the situation".
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John Irish retweeted
Precisely. And let’s game this out further. In one scenario, the U.S. and Iran sit at the table for another year plus and hammer out these (very important) details on the nuclear issue. The traditional negotiating model. That seems unlikely. Trump won’t go for that and frankly I’m not sure the Iranians would either. In another, more likely scenario, there is a high level agreement that is then kicked to lower level teams to work out the details. How’s that conversation gonna go when Iran wants to keep all the centrifuges, build in a timeline for R&D and gradual ramp up, push back on intrusive inspections, etc—all arguably within the bounds of a high level agreement on enrichment suspension, or at least not explicitly out of bounds? My guess is not well given Trump’s vision of “no enrichment” and pressures on the administration. Relatedly, if it’s not clear as part of that high level deal that Iran has to pause all nuclear activity (ie, not build back) while detailed talks are underway, we could find ourselves back in the old cycle of Iran building up its capabilities for negotiating leverage to extract further concessions. In this scenario, there’s a very high likelihood that talks break down, and we’re back to square one. In a third scenario, there’s a high level agreement, but the Trump administration essentially declares victory and moves on. That’s also incredibly worrying as Iran would have a free hand to do quite a bit on the program without formally enriching. And there’s nothing to prevent Trump from waking up one day and deciding Iran had gone too far and crossed some red line that wasn’t explicitly agreed. All this to say, there seems to be a lot of optimism around the U.S. and Iran closing this gap on enrichment suspension timelines and HEU. Will they get there? Maybe. But there are many other details that would need to be worked out to make this a strong, verifiable agreement, creating plenty of room for things to go south in the medium term.
A temporary moratorium on enrichment is probably a workable compromise. You just have to haggle over the duration: Iran won't accept 20 years; Trump can't sell five years. But you have a bunch of other issues beyond that: - the HEU is of course the big one. Iran wants to downblend rather than ship it out, which doesn't seem like a dealbreaker (it loses the stockpile either way). But who's going to monitor that process, on what timetable will it occur, etc. - then you have other issues around enrichment and weaponization: can Iran continue to develop centrifuges? What about other aspects of R&D? Does it have to dismantle any nuclear facilities or refrain from building new ones? Again, how is all this monitored? Also notable that there's no mention at all of missiles and proxies. These were supposedly red lines for America in the February talks. But they don't feature at all in any of the reporting (including mine) about the current negotiations. That's probably realistic. Iran won't negotiate around missiles, and even if Iran agreed to concessions around proxies, they were always going to be hard to verify. Still, notable that they've disappeared. nytimes.com/2026/04/13/us/po…
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John Irish retweeted
Iran is close to finalizing a deal with China to buy supersonic anti‑ship missiles, sources tell Reuters. The possible sale comes as a US naval fleet masses near the Iranian coast reut.rs/4qPlqiD
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For those who missed it: US intel continues to indicate that Putin has not abandoned his territorial ambitions - something he has stated openly in recent days. Ambition is different than capability. But it matters in the context of deal making reuters.com/world/europe/us-…
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There was another meeting between e3 ministers and araqchi a couple of hours ago.
No other SnapBack meetings planned after Macron - Pezeshkian and this is reportedly @EmmanuelMacron conclusion.
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This is good. European allies should adopt this approach as well. But today I just saw another absurd travel video posted by an American citizen, promoting visits to Iran. It's this category of travel which I have the least sympathy or tolerance for. instagram.com/reel/DLupRyBy-…
NEW!!!  State Dept is announcing a new awareness campaign warning Americans — especially Iranian Americans — about the continuing severe risks of travel to Iran, DoS Spox just announed.
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Those who say Iran must come back to the negotiating table …. what do they mean exactly? Anyway, the nuclear train left the station on June 21, 2025. One-way tickets only. El día que nació un Irán nuclear politicaexterior.com/el-dia-… vía @PolExt
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Those who’ve never been to Syria, didn’t know it prior to 2011, those who haven’t spent time with Syrians of all socio-economic backgrounds can’t understand how much they have suffered under the Assad family, and yet remained kind, generous, welcoming, funny, polite…
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