Jean-François Pauzé (@jfpauze) header
Jean-François Pauzé (@jfpauze) profile picture

Dad, Husband & Grandad - Into all technology, engineering & space stuff! Let's create the first real space era for humankind! Ideas are my own - No DM

Québec, Canada
Joined June 2011
Photo by Jean-François Pauzé (@jfpauze)
Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Japan is months away from running out of yttrium, a Japanese official told the Financial Times. China shipped Japan 4 tonnes of yttrium oxide in September, down from 51 tonnes a year earlier. Every AI data center needs power and every gas plant needs a turbine. The first rows of blades sit right behind the burner, in gas hotter than the melting point of their metal. Part of what protects them is a ceramic coat of zirconia a few tenths of a millimeter thick. Pure zirconia changes crystal shape as it cools, swells about 5%, and cracks off the blade. Adding 6 to 8% yttrium oxide stops that. Jet engines use the same coat, and the US has told Beijing it will not export the engines for China’s C919 airliner because the yttrium shortage has constrained production. Chip toolmakers coat the inside of etch chambers with yttrium oxide too, because it resists the fluorine plasma that erodes other materials. China exported about 1,600 tonnes of yttrium last year. At China’s price of $9 a kilo, that is about $14M. Argus prices it at $1,150 a kilo outside China. Coating makers are now revisiting zirconia mixed with magnesium and calcium, recipes from the 1970s and 80s. They make a less tough coat. I build chemical plants. Outside China, almost no one separates yttrium at commercial scale. A new plant takes 18 to 36 months or longer to build. ft.com/content/ebd3244a-9120…
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Forging Steel This is a 300 ton forged ring passing through Japan Steel Works Ltd. This facility has 80% market share for nuclear reactor pressure vessels (RPV). Their order book is full. They have mastered… • controlled melting • vacuum degassing • superheated liquid handling • giant bar casting • electric preheating • hydraulic forge pressing • hot punching • open die mandrel pressing • dewarping • ring rolling • electric pit heating • quenching • tempering • machining • NDT testing of sample prolongations They do this with pieces of steel that are 540 tons, for most of the steps the steel is 1,600°F. The scale of the equipment you need to handle something like this is pure sci fi. The number of steps in the process is no joke. You make 1 mistake along the way and the whole thing is often scrapped and has to be remade. You have to keep all of this equipment calibrated, even as it goes through brutal thermal cycles and takes weeks to cool down. This is why giant forging is so hard. But it’s doable, people do it. A big part of what makes this expensive is that everything is made-to-order and the orders are all bespoke. This means retooling for every run, which means recalibrating, which means you often don’t get it right first time, which means there is a lot of losses and reruns… Which means lead times are long. That plus the order book is full. This process is deeply esoteric, but it is also ripe for innovation. It is big, it is heavy… but JSW can turn $3m of steel into a $200m component. And they have 80% market share. Suddenly the world needs infrastructure and this is the global bottleneck for an awful lot of it.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Modern civilization depends on helium. In 1925, Congress started a federal helium program to fill airships. In the 1960s the government started stockpiling it for rockets and the space race. In June 2024 it sold the reserve to Messer, a German gas company, for $423M. Since then the US government has held no helium stockpile. Less than two years later, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and trapped a third of the world’s helium in Qatar. What if we banned all balloons in America? Party balloons, weather balloons, blimps and parade floats use about 8.7 million cubic meters a year. That would replace about seven weeks of Qatar’s normal output.
No helium means no new smartphones, laptops, cars, MRI machines, or missiles. This irreplaceable resource is now in short supply as the war with Iran continues. @jon_wertheim reports, Sunday on 60 Minutes.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
How the hell is there a 62 week lead time for US made Titanium!?!?
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Des soudeurs. Des électriciens. Des conducteurs de grues. Nous avons besoin de plus de travailleurs de métiers pour réaliser notre plan visant à doubler la capacité du réseau électrique du Canada d’ici 2050. C’est pourquoi nous avons lancé Une Équipe Canada forte : pour recruter, former et embaucher jusqu’à 100 000 travailleurs de métiers désignés Sceau rouge au cours des cinq prochaines années afin qu’ils nous aident à atteindre cet objectif.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Welders. Electricians. Crane operators. We need more skilled trades workers to help deliver on our plan to double Canada’s electricity grid by 2050. That's why we launched Team Canada Strong — to help recruit, train, and hire up to 100,000 Red Seal skilled trades workers in the next five years to get the job done.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Every AI data center needs power, and every power plant needs a step-up transformer to connect to the grid. If you ordered one in 2021, it arrived in under 500 days. Today it takes more than 1,120 days. A large transformer core is made of grain-oriented electrical steel that spends about five days in a 1,200°C annealing furnace. Only one US company makes that steel: Cleveland-Cliffs. Inside a bell annealing furnace, coils of iron with about 3% silicon stand on end in hydrogen while the furnace heats them about 15 to 20°C an hour. It takes two to three days to reach 1,200°C. As the coils heat up, tiny particles that pin the grains in place slowly dissolve, and about one grain in a million starts growing and swallows its neighbors. Then the coils sit at 1,200°C for 20 to 40 hours. Grains that started 0.01 mm across end up 10 mm wide, nearly all pointing the same way. That alignment cuts the power a transformer core loses as heat. Cleveland-Cliffs can supply about 12 to 20% of what the US needs, by DOE's estimate. China was in a similar spot before 2000: its only volume producer covered 30% of demand. The few foreign companies that could make the high-grade version refused to license their process. Baosteel spent ten years on research and made its first good coil in 2008. By 2013 it could make 300,000 tons a year, three times what all of China made before 2000. I build chemical plants. If you're in hard-tech, chances are you are now competing with AI data centers for the same grid equipment.
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This is 200k+ of Xenon. Maybe we should just mine this.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Stainless Steel Steel is iron + carbon, usually something like 98.00-99.98% iron and 0.02-2.00% carbon. Stainless steel is that, plus at least 10% chromium. Someone realised that if you add chromium to steel the steel is nice and shiny and it remains shiny because it forms an oxide layer that isolates the iron from atmospheric O2… thereafter it does not rust. some extra slightly more complicated stuff, firstly there are 3 main types of steel.. • Autenite (the blue zone) • Martensite (the white zone) • Ferrite (the pink zone) Each of these is a different crystal structure, Ferrite is Body Centric Cubic, Austenite is Face Centric Cubic and Martensite is a Body Centric Tetragonal. FCC has more space to hold additional atoms than BCC does, so the Austenite edge is where a lot of alloy recipes cluster. Stainless Steel is also a steel alloy with 3 elements. Iron + Nickel + Chromium Stainless is usually >8% nickel and >16% chromium. It’s also known as 3 series, which makes this all easy to remember. The 3 types overlap like a Venn diagram to create A+M, F+M and A+F. Now you can get as complicated as you like with alloys, and some applications you might add molybdenum too. But the chart below shows where the different commercial grades sit. As move towards an economy with giant vertically integrated companies, the need for commercial grades changes a little (liability stays on one balance sheet) and we might see some more unusual things being used. But here is the phase diagram for stainless steel, it’s basically a map of crystal structures. Crystals are important and understand them better has a lot of hidden benefits.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Commercial silicon panels convert about 22–25% of sunlight; silicon’s single-junction ceiling is ~29.4%, so the best modules are already near 85% of that limit, which is why perovskites and multi-junction cells are the path beyond it.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Canada claiming a spot at the forefront of AI sounds like a joke until you realize the entire modern AI industry came out of one Toronto lab. Geoff Hinton spent the AI winter at the University of Toronto, funded by a Canadian government program that kept backing neural networks when every US funder had written them off. In 2012 his students built AlexNet, the model that started the deep learning era. One of those students was Ilya Sutskever. Then the drain began. Google bought Hinton's three-person startup for $44 million in 2013. Ilya went with it, then co-founded OpenAI, which is now fielding investor offers at $1.2 trillion. Aidan Gomez, a University of Toronto undergrad, co-wrote the 2017 transformer paper that every frontier model runs on, the same architecture underneath Anthropic, whose investors expect a $2 trillion IPO next month. Add it up and Canadians built the foundational architecture, the breakthrough model, and helped start the labs racing to be the first $2 trillion AI company. Almost all of that value sits in San Francisco. What Canada kept is Cohere, Gomez's lab in Toronto, reportedly raising at $20 billion right now with Ottawa itself in the round. Put $20 billion next to $1.2 trillion and $2 trillion. The country that invented the field kept about 1% of it. So Carney's line is funny in a way he didn't intend. Canada has been at the forefront of AI for twenty years. It just kept exporting the forefront.
Canadian PM Mark Carney: There are only four countries at the forefront of AI: France, Canada, China and the United States. We must join forces to ensure an appropriate framework so that AI is safe and effective.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Next year, we're going to launch a spacecraft that will be given zero commands from Earth after it separates from the launch vehicle. The spacecraft will attempt to complete all of its mission objectives with no human operator in the loop. Today we’re introducing Autonomy-1, powered by our spacecraft intelligence model, Solo. 🧵
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
The UK's nuclear regulator has started the licensing process for X-energy's 80 MW, TRISO-fueled, gas-cooled high-temp reactor (X-100). Article link in reply. US-based X-energy is farther along the US licensing process for the X-100. Lessons learned from the US (NRC) process should reduce the time needed for the UK licensing process. The X-100 can be used to produce high-temp heat, as well as electricity. Thus, it can be used to generate process heat for many industrial applications.
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Yesterday, @FireSwarmInc, a Canadian startup building drone-swarm technology to fight wildfires, announced partnerships with the City of Kelowna and Okanagan College aimed at making Kelowna a hub for drone and aerospace innovation.
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🇨🇦 @Canada just made it cheaper for junior miners to finance the journey from discovery toward development. The new Productivity Mega Deduction provides a 100% immediate deduction for Canadian Development Expenses (CDE), a potentially significant change for flow-through financing. Why it matters: → Greater tax value for investors → Potentially higher financing premiums → Less dilution for issuers → More capital to advance Canadian projects toward production Finding the minerals is only the first step. Financing development is what turns discoveries into mines. 🇨🇦 A timely topic for today’s @arcstone Growth Summit in Toronto. arcstoneglobalsecurities.com…
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Jean-François Pauzé retweeted
Making a graphite electrode takes about six months, from petroleum needle coke to the threaded pin on its end, and an electric arc furnace consumes 1.7 kilograms of electrode for every tonne of steel it melts. Outside China, five companies hold 82% of the capacity to make them. How one is made:
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Back at it again with a long one, but can't help myself on the Space Academy topic. Interesting to read some of the policy experts who have taken skeptical, and in some cases negative, public positions on the need for a United States Space Academy. People are certainly entitled to their opinions. There are also those who believe we should not build a single spaceship or invest in technological progress until we solve every problem on Earth. That is simply not how you build a better future for our children. I suspect, for some, the objection has more to do with the politics than the merits. So let me address a few of the common concerns and offer some rationale. Global dependence on space is increasing at an astronomical rate. Weather forecasting, disaster response, precision navigation, communications, agriculture, national security and scientific discovery all depend on capabilities in orbit. Connecting the disconnected and expanding access to knowledge is itself foundational to solving many of the world's problems. The data we will be taking in, whether from Earth observation or instruments like Roman, will answer questions we do not even know to ask today. And there is no going back from the trajectory we are on. A decade ago, the FAA was overseeing barely more than a dozen commercial space launches per year. Today, nearly a dozen U.S. companies are operating or developing orbital launch systems, chasing economic opportunity measured in the trillions. But the upside is far greater than economics. Think about what we stand to learn scientifically, what technologies will have to be pioneered to explore out there, and how many of those breakthroughs will make life better back here. Our new national space transportation policy calls for the United States to support more than 1,000 launches annually by 2030. Some already believe that is off by an order of magnitude. America will certainly establish a permanent outpost on another world in the years ahead, and we are not alone in our ambitions. That outpost will become NASA's proving ground for where we go next. Mars. And then we continue on. It is our destiny to harness more of the energy of our star, unlock more of the energy potential in matter, and venture farther outward, in the same spirit as the explorers of centuries past who discovered the New World. And we have no idea how quickly that timeline could accelerate in a world transformed by artificial superintelligence, robotics, quantum technologies and additive manufacturing. All of it is unfolding in the context of a great power competition where falling behind could materially affect our way of life and the trajectory of civilizations. I do know the future will require a bright new generation educated and prepared for this environment. Many will serve in inherently governmental roles. They will need specialized education in disciplines that barely exist today, including nuclear power and propulsion for space applications, before having the opportunity to continue careers across government or the private sector. If you understand the increasingly important and contested environment above us, then a Space Academy is as timely and necessary today as the Space Force has already proven to be. So what are the objections? It blurs the line between peaceful applications in space and the military. This may be the weakest argument I have seen. NASA's history began with astronauts flying to space on ballistic missiles. Several Space Shuttle missions were, and remain, classified. NASA Aeronautics flies repurposed U-2 spy planes for high-altitude research and F-15s for high-speed research. Breakthroughs pioneered through NASA aeronautics have benefited civil aviation and national security alike. The U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, under the Department of Transportation, graduates students who go into industry, government and the military. Some have even become astronauts. Three of the four Artemis II astronauts came from the military, as have many NASA astronauts throughout our history, and some have continued serving in uniform after their NASA careers. NASA's mission is as peaceful as it is patriotic. We explore for the benefit of all humankind, but we go there under our flag. That mission would be impossible without the Guardians standing watch over the domain as we venture outward. There is no contradiction in giving future civil, commercial and national security space leaders a common educational foundation, especially when our adversaries draw no such distinction themselves. What about the cost? Congressional leaders and Governors from both parties have been reaching out and assembling potential funding packages. It is interesting, I face questions during congressional hearings over whether we are investing enough in STEM education. We can absorb billions of dollars in canceled programs from mismanagement. But investing in the education of the next generation, in a domain increasingly central to our scientific, economic and national security future, is somehow uneconomical? We should look past the politics on this one. Go back to 1963, when the world was captivated by the possibilities of space, and remember another iconic JFK speech. He reminded us that we all treasure our children's future. Fittingly, he delivered those words at a university commencement. It is time for another great American academy. A United States Space Academy worthy of the extraordinary adventure ahead.
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A construction feat: beams spanning more than 224 feet without intermediate columns. Once fully assembled, the generator hall will be about the size of one and a half football fields, end zone to end zone.
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Your expertise could contribute to the future of lunar and planetary exploration! The CSA is seeking organizations interested in participating in future consultations on space resources. 👉asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/funding-pr…
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It's going to be a gamechanger when the new Air Separation Unit at Starbase replaces all those truckloads of LOX/LN2 etc. This shot from today is a neat reminder of just how much complexity goes into getting all of this set up. 💪
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