📈 Microcap hunter with systems level view of Canada’s resource economy, low tolerance for institutional theater, self aware outsider with a sense of humour.
Canada
Joined May 2021
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JGGCDN retweeted
There have been many instances where luck carried a share price much higher and much faster than I expected. When that happens, I'll often sell most, if not all, of the position. I've learned that when momentum gets too far ahead of the story, it pays to respect it.
Most of the time, though, investing isn't about getting lucky. It's about getting in early enough and then having the patience to let the investment thesis breathe.
That's where the real challenge begins.
In small caps, I'm usually investing based on positive catalysts and improving financial statements. The goal isn't to predict every move. It's to give management, the business, and the thesis enough time to prove themselves. If the story continues improving, I'll stay and let the investment ride.
Ideally, I'm looking for the elevator ride to the penthouse.
At the same time, experience has taught me that every elevator goes both ways.
That's why I pay close attention to the facts as they develop. If the catalysts weaken, the financials disappoint, or a better opportunity appears elsewhere, I have no problem rebalancing. Opportunity cost is a cost too.
The trick is finding the balance between patience and discipline.
Too little patience, and you sell a future winner too early.
Too little discipline, and you ride the elevator all the way past the lobby and into the basement.
After more than three decades in small caps, I've learned that success isn't about catching every top or every bottom. It's about letting your winners breathe while making sure your safety nets keep you from falling too far when the story changes.
JGGCDN retweeted
Please share. Everyone should be as pissed off as me 🤣 ...
Active stock pickers at your CPP Canada Pension Plan lost money during robust markets - "But the strategy has struggled for years. It lost $3.5-billion in CPPIB’s 2026 fiscal years, which ended March 31, and has lost a total of $6-billion over five years." This is criminal. We'll never make it back, these are permanent losses. @JonChevreau @thedave2006 @StockTrades_CA @PassiveCndIncom @MarkMcGrathCFP @Tawcan @rcarrick Many were fired.
theglobeandmail.com/business…
JGGCDN retweeted
Active stock pickers at your CPP Canada Pension Plan lost money during robust markets - "But the strategy has struggled for years. It lost $3.5-billion in CPPIB’s 2026 fiscal years, which ended March 31, and has lost a total of $6-billion over five years." This is criminal. We'll never make it back, these are permanent losses. @JonChevreau @thedave2006 @StockTrades_CA @PassiveCndIncom @MarkMcGrathCFP @Tawcan @rcarrick Many were fired.
theglobeandmail.com/business…
JGGCDN retweeted
I spent some time volunteering on the board of the largest homelessness organization in my city. A big problem is that funding needs to be significant, and dependable over a multi-year horizon, with underperformers weeded out from the pool of receiving agencies. Biggest issue ...
The last target to cut chronic homelessness 50% by 2027 was followed by a 59% increase.
Budget 2026 now promises a 10 year path to end it with $29B & 25k supportive units (Ottawa builds, provinces fund the rest).
"Trying" without clear results still isn’t enough. Define the root causes, show the specific measures that will reverse the trend, & be judged on outcomes, not aspirations.
Supporting action doesn’t require defending approaches that have so far moved in the opposite direction.
JGGCDN retweeted
When I worked in fund management, I went through training to prepare for meetings with clients and pitching our strategy to consultants and prospects.
As I got up to speed with the presentation, something hit me.
The slide deck wasn’t really describing what we did. It was describing what we hoped to do in an ideal world, assuming reality didn’t get in the way.
I think the same thing applies to how CEOs present their companies.
What they’re describing isn’t what’s happening today. It’s what an ideal version of the business looks like, or what they’re trying to build toward in the future.
The reality behind the scenes is almost certainly far messier.
As investors, it’s worth remembering that there’s often a wide gap between the company being presented and what’s happening on the ground.
No we don’t. East Hastings is proof.
This will be more virtue signaling so the consultant & non profit class feel good while burning money that never solves it.
Our kids will be left with the debt & the housing shortage.
JGGCDN retweeted
1000s of Jensen Huangs have been ‘elite captured’ in capitals worldwide
Today we welcomed Vice Premier He Lifeng to Canada for the Canada-China Economic and Financial Strategic Dialogue. 🇨🇦🇨🇳
This visit builds on the Prime Minister's trip to China in January and our steady engagement since. We're advancing economic and trade cooperation that works for Canadian workers and businesses.
JGGCDN retweeted
It’s about understanding what needs to happen for you to earn a worthwhile return, how realistic those expectations are, and how much room you have to be wrong. -- Rose Celine Investments
In a nutshell, I agree 100%. I invested in small caps for more than 3 decades. I deal with anticipation of positive catalysts and better financial statements.
How much time is needed for me to be wrong or right? Where do I draw the line, profit or loss, rebalance and move on.
The Price of Being Right
Before buying a stock, try to explain how you could lose money even if you’re right about the company. It’s a simple question, but one that forces you to think about something a wonderful business can easily hide. How much of its future success are you already paying for?
Imagine a company earning $1 per share with a stock price of $50. Over the next five years, earnings double to $2, growing 15% annually. You understood the business correctly, management delivered, and everything went according to plan. Yet if investors are only willing to pay 25 times earnings five years later, the stock is still worth $50.
The business doubled its earnings, but your investment went nowhere. You were right about the business, but that didn’t make you any money. And this happens far more often than investors realize.
This doesn’t mean you should avoid paying a premium for wonderful businesses. Some companies can grow at extraordinary rates for decades, making what initially looks expensive turn out to be a bargain. But finding a great business is only part of the work. You still have to figure out what makes it a great investment at the price you’re paying.
Let’s take that same $50 stock and assume you want to earn 12% annually over the next five years. Your investment would need to grow to $88. If the market values the company at 25 times earnings at that point, earnings per share would need to reach $3.52. That requires 29% annual earnings growth instead of 15%.
Now you have something much more useful to think about. Can this business realistically grow earnings at 29% annually for five years? Where will that growth come from? More customers, higher prices, better margins, share repurchases, or some combination of all four?
And remember, we’re talking about earnings per share, not simply total profits. A company can grow its profits substantially while issuing so many new shares that individual shareholders receive considerably less of that growth. What matters is how much of that growing business ultimately belongs to you.
Of course, nobody knows what multiple investors will pay five years from now. That’s why I think it’s important to consider several reasonable outcomes rather than getting attached to one prediction. If your investment only works when everything goes right and investors are still willing to pay a premium five years later, you should understand just how much you’re counting on.
This is also why patience is such an enormous advantage. You can admire a business, study it for years, appreciate everything management is doing, and still decide that the price makes little sense. You don’t have to own every wonderful company you come across, and there’s nothing wrong with waiting.
I’ve always believed that valuation isn’t about coming up with an impressive price target or pretending you can predict the future. It’s about understanding what needs to happen for you to earn a worthwhile return, how realistic those expectations are, and how much room you have to be wrong.
Because being right about a business and making money from its stock are two very different things. 🌹
JGGCDN retweeted
The recent Canadian budget could have super charged the Canadian public markets with one small adjustment.
Cameron’s being way too modest.
@PaulAndreola
& plenty of other microcap investors consider him one of the few "no BS" voices consistently doing real work for the community.
#97 on Substack Rising is just the market noticing what many of us already know.
7
506
January 2025: Trump’s tariffs would force Canada to stop treating the U.S. as its only customer and actually build coastal pipelines.
November 2026: Budget 2026 just named Pacific Link a project of national interest for exactly that reason.
The institutional theater finally caught up to the economics.
Title: Trump's Tariff Threat Spurs Canadian Pipeline Expansion to Global Markets.
In a surprising turn of events, the looming threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods by U.S. President Donald Trump has ignited discussions about expanding Canada's pipeline infrastructure to reach its coastal regions. This move could fundamentally alter the dynamics of Canadian energy exports, potentially ending the discounted sales to the U.S. and opening up global markets at market prices.
Canada needs to start building again.
We need more homes, electricity, trade infrastructure, skilled workers & industrial capacity.
The direction makes sense. The real question is whether Canada can execute.
We’re already short on electricians, welders, engineers & project managers. If that doesn’t change, announcing billions could just make everything more expensive.
The government also has to make smart investments.
How should we judge them?
Did private investors put in real money?
Was the project finished on time and on budget?
Did it create lasting jobs, exports & tax revenue, or does it still need government support years later?
Borrowing makes sense if it leaves Canada more productive & Canadians better off.
Businesses get the tax benefits now. Workers are promised better wages later. We need to see those gains actually reach people.
Forget the money announced, watch the results.
Homes built
Electricity connected
Faster approvals
Exports growing
Wages beating inflation
If Canada delivers, Budget 2026 could be a real economic reset, if not, we’ll be left with the debt & none of the growth that was supposed to pay for it.
JGGCDN retweeted
Latest substack article "Quick Update & Opinions on Q3 Earnings Season" microcapstocks.substack.com/…
JGGCDN retweeted
Just a bit of my thoughts on the AI datacenter buildout:
Texas has already stopped new data centers back in August, and that's the most important fact the market missed today.
1/ Abbott paused it in August. ERCOT stopped energizing new data centers of 75 MW or more and shelved a ~200 GW study batch. TCEQ stopped issuing permits.
Hinojosa's moratorium will keep the existing pause in place on New permits instead of lifting it. She also said it targets new permits, not projects already under construction. So that just means next project goes to a friendly locale, not Texas.
2/ Ohio was already moving. DeWine froze the data center sales-tax exemption for new projects back in June. Acton's conditional moratorium is a pay your own power costs, use union labor, build on brownfields. That's a cost hit, not a ban outright.
3/ Congress can't ban anything. The Sanders/AOC moratorium bill would face a Trump veto through Jan 2029.
4/ What's already built or nearly built keeps going:
• Stargate Abilene: 4 of 8 buildings live, the rest due this month
• Fairwater Atlanta: ~636 MW running
• Rainier Indiana: ~1 GW running
• Hyperion Louisiana: not in play at all
About 56.7 GW is under construction nationally and largely outside the pledges.
5/ Demand didn't change this week:
• $ANET Q3 revenue $3.66b, +58.5% y/y, $360m above guide
• $CLS guiding 2027 to $40b, roughly double 2026
• $MOD data center sales +95%, record backlog, a $4b+ deal for 2027–29
• Hyperscalers are on pace for $803b–$828b of 2026 capex and they're guiding 2027 higher
6/ The market half-figured it out. Texas-heavy builders and power names fell 7–23% ($HUT -23%, $VST -15%). Suppliers with national backlogs barely moved ($ANET -0.4%, $NVDA -0.8%).
$NUAI is a zero now for sure.
7/ Where it's real: new 2027–28 capacity in TX/OH/GA gets slower and pricier, so it will shift to different locations.
New projects go to friendly locales, TX/OH/GA lose out.
8/ AI component suppliers are still maxed out for the next few years, that demand doesn’t change, just where they ship it to does.
9/ Neoclouds still suck. Ain’t nothing gonna change that.
JGGCDN retweeted
Alchemy Secures Two-Year ExoShield(R) Supply Agreement as Automotive Partner Expands into Dealership Channel newsfilecorp.com/release/322… #Aerospace #Automobile #Car #Defense #Agreement #SmallCaps #TSXV #Investing $ALCH.V
