Jake Day retweeted
New Content Alert:
Linear regression says one subgroup's "Very Satisfied" share fell by 8pp.
The actual data show it rose by 7pp.
Sign flipped — and the model was properly specified.
This is how linear routinely breaks on Likert outcomes. 🧵(+ two posts & a shiny app!)
Jake Day retweeted
New preprint with @Jake_Day4 & @MarijanaKotlaja
When stressed, you might get depressed—but will you also commit crime?
Short answer: Yes for depression. No (or not typically) for crime. 🧵[1/11]
osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/x4…
I like the causal story and its implications re more collaboration early in the research process. But the specific issue Cole discusses here (interesting articles are less robust) might be explained by selection (in this case submission to Sociological Forum). >
Novak et al. (2023) have a good overview in Experimental Criminology: link.springer.com/article/10…
Ironically, my (non-criminological) dissertation, and the work that came out of it, is likely similarly biased (selected on survivors/successful coaches) because I ignored some critical early feedback from one of my committee members! For example: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Jake Day retweeted
🧵New Preprint: Is "self-control" a real psychological entity, an emergent property, or a statistical fiction? Our new paper challenges criminology's hidden assumptions about measurement.
w/ @Jake_Day4 @agrahamphd
Jake Day retweeted
Landmark new article in @Theory_Society from @RealJonBrauer and Jacob Day.
Criminology requires an important shift in priority and perspective to prevent further deterioration of the field's legitimacy and capacity to be truth-seeking.
"By confronting the crisis directly and reimagining the very forms of knowledge we produce, criminology can move closer to fulfilling its potential as a cumulative scientific enterprise."
Check out the article here (open access!): link.springer.com/article/10…
Jake Day retweeted
The goal: Transforming criminological knowledge products so they constitute the accumulation of real "money in the bank" for precise, falsifiable theories & thus contribute to cumulative theoretical development. (12/12)
Full paper w/@Jake_Day4:
doi.org/10.1007/s11186-025-0…
Jake Day retweeted
We reanalyzed a published null, showing data lack signal to trust oft-cited null interpretation (large effects also plausible given same data; measurement decisions matter). Based on citation patterns though, I'd say we failed to "overturn" anything. 🤔🤷
journals.sagepub.com/doi/ful…
Jake Day retweeted
New Content Alert:
In a new blog post, Jon & Jake offer a pluralist response to Andrew Wheeler’s call to “build stuff” and discuss their recent preprints, in which they suggest how to move beyond Monopoly money publications to genuine scientific currency
reluctantcriminologists.com/…
Jake Day retweeted
Well, it was written by a couple dopes... 🤷🤣 Thanks for sharing! Look forward to your feedback.
Jake Day retweeted
New preprint! Criminology faces a "precision crisis," hindering cumulative theoretical development unlike physics/biology. We argue current practices yield vague theories & archaic statistical summaries, producing "Monopoly money" (@a_m_mastroianni) knowledge. #Criminology
#SocArXiv: Money in the Bank: Progressive Problem Shifts in Criminological Science osf.io/5af2s
Jake Day retweeted
#SocArXiv: Money in the Bank: Progressive Problem Shifts in Criminological Science osf.io/5af2s
Jake Day retweeted
New preprint! Do crime projections = behavior? We test congruence & dynamics using panel (🇧🇩) & cross-sectional (🇷🇸🇧🇦) data. Projections predict, but...
doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ztmv…
#criminology #crime 1/n
Jake Day retweeted
Check out my first preprint! In it, @Jake_Day4 & I encourage ordinal modeling for analyzing ordinal outcomes. We show how to quantify effect magnitudes w/greater accuracy & precision, helping us move us beyond just interpreting stat significance & broad directional statements.
#SocArXiv: Pursuing Precision in Criminology: Why Ordinal Data Demand Ordinal Methods osf.io/fet4d