Investor, Equity Analyst, Fund Manager of the former Oriel UK fund and former Head of Investment Solutions at AJ B. Write for Moneyweek, Sharepad and Substack
Warks
Joined October 2014
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My appearance on the In The Company of Mavericks podcast with Jeremy McKeown is out now. It was a hugely enjoyable chat.
open.spotify.com/episode/1CK…
Now available for free online wonderstcks.substack.com/p/t…
Some thoughts on Nu Holdings following the controversial Brazilian elections. TLDR version: creates an opportunity to buy a great business at well below its Friday close
substack.com/profile/1025820…
This week I will be publishing a deep dive on Sea Limited on Wonder Stocks as well as an article on the same company in Moneyweek
wonderstcks.substack.com/
Jamie Ward retweeted
I was prepared to buy more $NU if Brazil election went against the market. But the way it happened looks like a fraud, and I'm concerned now.
2/
Checked with some Brazilians today - told me low-income people are doing better than 2yrs ago (validating the u/ment stats), expect tight election.
TBH, I don’t think upcoming election will affect $NU biz fundamentals in any big way. Happy I bought more.
Jamie Ward retweeted
Brutal chart.
France and UK vs. Communist countries at their peak.
UK public spending as % of GDP is currently above Romania, Venezuela and China.
And France is a lost cause.
(HM Treasury/Rand Research)
Jamie Ward retweeted
Ken Griffin explains why the rise of passive investing only works as long as active managers keep doing the research that sets prices
“So what’s very interesting is the rise of passive investing plays to the realization that markets are either efficient or semi-efficient."
"And it’s a way for investors to have low-cost exposure to either broad indices, to the world as a whole, or to specific sectors without having to pay the fees of active management."
"It’s been revolutionary for the world, this embracing of passive investing. But passive investing only works if there’s a meaningful community of people involved in fundamental research who are helping to set the pricing of securities."
"So passive investing requires the existence of capable, successful, and competitive traditional asset managers for the theory that underlies passive investing to actually play out, to actually manifest itself."
"So the rise of short-term investors helps to ensure that markets are efficient with respect to news that’s rapidly evolving. But we should really try to make sure that we take every step possible to make it that traditional asset managers have the ability to have prosperous and successful firms because they are so critical in the price discovery process that passive investing depends upon.”
Alex Sacerdote explains the scuttlebutt research process behind Whale Rock and why AI cannot replace it
“And so much of what we’re doing is we’re meeting with as many companies as humanly possible. We’re developing relationships with the management teams that we cover. We’re talking to the competitors."
"The system we use is right out of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, which was written by Philip Fisher in the 1950s. And it’s the scuttlebutt approach."
"It’s growth investing. It’s get out there and talk to suppliers, customers, competitors, looking for the key characteristics of these leading companies and really developing conviction in them."
"Now, if it’s a new complicated area like ABF substrates or PCBs, we’re able to get up to speed on those things quickly, but it can’t pick stocks for you in any kind of a way."
"I will say that, if you’re an analyst who’s good at the blocking and tackling, there’s a role for that, but that role is you need to have obviously the insight on top."
"So we’re now like using AI to write notes or review the quarter, and those notes are much better, but there better be a really good paragraph on top, which is the wisdom. What does this mean? How does this deal with our thesis? What changed? don’t just be a reporter. So the AI can be a great reporter. It can’t quite pick into the future.”
Jamie Ward retweeted
When the Met Office's forecasts are too depressing, I just use Google Weather instead, because that gives me a much better chance of tolerable weather.
Sometimes, you just have to shop around a little. Three cheers for consumer choice and competition!
This week, in Moneyweek, I have written about decent little UK IPO for a company called Tek4, which is due to start trading on Monday
Read @EdConwaySky excellent new book. Its exactly like watching Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
open.substack.com/pub/wonder…
I've written a book review of Ed Conway's new book, Trade World
wonderstcks.substack.com/p/t…
Jamie Ward retweeted
I run an apprenticeship & skills bootcamp provider
So I’m much more qualified to talk about this than anyone.
The model is simple, funded by the government we train people in areas like Marketing, Software Development & Business.
We are paid when we deliver the 12 week programme and paid again when these individuals get a positive out come.
Classed as a job, promotion or pay rise.
Average cost per person on programme is £4,000.
To be clear the government fund this. They only pay on successful outcome.
No completion of course = NO PAYMENT
No job = NO PAYMENT
We delivered over 1000 people on this course in 2024.
AS SOON AS LABOUR CAME TO POWER
FUNDING STOPPED.
I’ve added the share price of @northcoders who are a similar business with a similar model.
The share price since labour has got to power has collapsed.
Labour are not serious about reversing the direction of NEETs. I have dwelled on this for a number of years. Wondering when funding would come.
This year alone, funding has reduced 75%.
To practically 0.
The conclusion I have come to, which is deeply harrowing for our nation is that the current government would rather individuals stay on benefits than train them and help them get a job.
That is my deepest reflection on being in this industry for 5 years.
It makes me feel every announcement they make is empty promises.
There is an infrastructure of training providers across the country who are (like us) wanting to support training young people and help them get jobs.
But right now, this government has no interest in doing this.
This has been what has turned me against everything announcement they make - because the reality is always different.
Exclusive:
Britain is facing an “economic catastrophe and moral failure” because a generation of young people is being written off to a life on benefits, the prime minister has said
Writing in The Times Andy Burnham said that the time has come for Britain to “invest in the success of our young people” rather than “pay for failure through the benefits system”
Setting out his vision for the fundamental reform of welfare, he said the present scheme provided “an assessment, a payment and, after that, a goodbye”, with no support, skills or help getting a job
In future, Burnham promised, the government would offer a “clear guarantee” of support, starting in schools, to address the almost one million 16 to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training, known as Neets
Every young person would be guaranteed a technical pathway, work placements, apprenticeships and the skills they needed to find a job
However, he cautioned that this would be matched by an expectation that young people would take up the opportunities available to them. He added that under the new system, benefits would become a “backstop” rather than the “starting point” for young people.
thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
Jamie Ward retweeted
Labour don't believe that money you earn, or the property that you own, is really yours.
If you leave property empty for 6 months, they'll let councils steal it.
If you put money aside for your pension, they'll decide how it's invested.
And now they're after your business.
Labour's new raid on family firms as Chancellor 'plots to charge income tax on share scheme' trib.al/dGe76SP
My article on Coupang $CPNG is now available on line for free
wonderstcks.substack.com/p/c…
Jamie Ward retweeted
A great show lined up for Monday
🔵 #MelloMonday next week!
Mon 19th Oct | 5:00-8:00pm on Zoom 💻
🔷 Keynote: Paul Jourdan, Amati
🔷 Tharisa #THS
🔷 SRT Marine Systems #SRT
🔷 Tom Burnet, Chair BG US Growth Trust #USA
💸 Use code MMX50 for 50% off
🔗 melloevents.com/mm191026
#SmallCaps #Investing #AIM
Before I ever decided to go to uni and become a finance bod, I was a roofer. When I was 19 I worked near Limoges and loved it there. Half considered living there at one point before my boring sensible side took over. Very sad to see what happened today
I have written a short article on Coupang, which is also one of the Wonder Stocks for Moneyweek this week
Wrote this on #WISE $WSE last night and fell asleep before I posted it here
substack.com/@wonderstcks/no…
