Australiaās property market is under pressure, and CBA shares have fallen 23% from their highs.
Iāve been buying shares in Australiaās biggest bank (DYOR). Brilliant opportunity or spectacular mistake? š
I analysed 20 years of CBA crashes and recoveries. Hereās what history tells us. š
#HousingCrisis #Sydney #Australia #Stocks #Property
My analysis of CBAās major historical sell-offs:
š +70% average rebound from crash lows to previous highs.
ā³ 21 months average recovery time. But after a roughly 17% pullback in early 2025, CBA hit new highs by June.
š +150% average rally from crash lows to subsequent record highs.
š° Now? CBA at $148 versus its previous $192 high = approximately 30% potential upside, excluding dividends.
But a cheapER share price doesnāt necessarily mean a cheap stock as we all know.
Are deteriorating housing conditions and bank earnings already priced in, or is CBA a value trap?
*Historical averages are approximate, based on selected downturns. Not financial advice. DYOR
Hereās an idea when it comes to buying a high-flying stock like Micron. šš½š§
$MU smashed earnings and guidance? yet itās down ~1% premarket.
After its previous two earnings releases, the shares suffered significant pullbacks. Will history repeat?
#trading #micron #investing
āļø Micron delivered another huge earnings beat and strong outlook. More than 75% of its memory chip output is already committed for 2027, AND the majority of customer discussions are now about 2028 commitments.
Wowweee. So the good times can keep on rollinā. šæšÆ Right?
But ā¼ļø Micron shares are down around 1% premarket.
Could history repeat itself?
After each of Micronās previous two earnings releases, its shares suffered significant pullbacks.
š After its March earnings, Micron fell around 30% from peak to trough.
š After its June earnings, the shares subsequently fell around 37%.
š But for savvy investors, those falls created incredible entry points.
After falling to around $311 following its March earnings, Micron subsequently rallied more than 300% to around $1,255.
Thatās the opportunity Iām talking about in this video: not chasing a high-flying stock, but watching for the pullback and potentially buying it at a much better price.
Letās see what happens this time. š
General information only. Not financial advice.
Unpopular opinion
Iāve bought & sold:
Nvidia 27x since May 2024
Micron 5x since Jan 2026
Newmont 10x since 2023
BHP 2x since 2023
I believe in long-term investing. But not always buy & hold.
Think like an investment manager:
Buy. Hold. Add. Trim. Take profits. Repeat.
Starlink is incredible.
I got to call my brother and wish him Happy birthday š from this Emirates flight.
His five year old answered the call, āhi Aunty Jess. Dads on the toiletā
I said ātell him I am calling from the aeroplane to say happy birthdayā
Life is good ā„ļøāļø
My rent jumped $100 to $800 a week after Anthony Albaneseās CGT changes.
Hereās what $800 a week gets you for a one bedroom apartment in Manly.
Iāve since moved out.
I miss being directly opposite the beach. But I definitely donāt miss the mould.
My rent went up $100 a week to $800 after Alboās CGT changes.
$800/week gets you: 1 bed. 1 bath. No balcony. Mould issues.
The Albanese Government said its housing policies would improve affordability. So why are Australians paying more and getting less?
Nothing is forever
My school friend died at the age of 40
My Family Friend died at the age of 45
A former house mate died at the age of 35
And my stepmom died at 49
Focus on today.
And now ā„ļø
Lucky Country? My rent went up $100 a week, more than Albanese said. My power bill tripled.
OECD: āAustralia is becoming poorer.ā
The Productivity Commission: āAustraliaās living standards have gone backwards & the trend will continue unless we lift productivity, encourage investment.ā
What if you didnāt trust all of your thoughts? And slowed down. And reflected.
I can guarantee that if you did this with:
Your investments.
Your opinions of others.
Your most important relationships.
Life would be easier. And you would be a lot richer in every sense.
Worth a listen
Markets only priced in 1 week of disruptions from the warā¦.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Why this new war could really be over Iranās oilā¦š®š·š¢ļø
This is a photo of my dad in Tehran, 1950. He was born into freedomāa democracyāat a time when Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi was the King. Iran was a Western-aligned, socially open, and fashion-forward country. My grandma described Tehran as the āParis of the Middle East,ā filled with music and joy.
So what went wrong?
By the time my dad was three, in 1953, a coup overthrew Iran's democracy. Orchestrated by Western intelligence (CIA and MI6) to secure oil, it led to 50% of Iranās oil being signed over to a Western Consortiumāthe giants we know today asĀ BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies.
In 1958, when my dad was eight, there was already a heavy presence of US military āadvisersā in Iran. Many Iranians were deeply disappointed that their leader was forced to āsell outā national assets to the West.
This resentment and anger over lost sovereignty was the birth of the 1979 Revolution.Ā The IRGC took over, seizing that same infrastructure and making those oil deals null and void. They replaced freedom with a dictatorship that has oppressed its people for decades.
Fast forward to 2026.
In the Iranian community at large, there is hope that the IRGC leadership will be brought to its knees. Following the strike that killed the IRGC leader yesterday, President Trump has stated that Iranians can now āseize controlā of their destiny and ātake backā their country.
But there are hard days ahead. The IRGC blocks theĀ Strait of HormuzĀ today. How long will this go on for? Another question is: will the US, the UK, the French, and the Dutch look to gain Iranian oil assets again, just like they did in 1953?
Above all, I am praying for the people of my father's homeland. I hope peace and democracy can return. Let's hope for no more bloodshed. Anywhere.
Long live Iran. šļø
#OOTT #Iran #oil
Jessica Amir retweeted
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