JustDimes

🏆 2026 AFL Season Results 🏆 The 2026 AFL Season comes to a dramatic close, so it only makes sense to recap what it was for us on the page. +48.66u to close the season I will more than be pleased with, especially with where that number was for the vast majority of the season. Really started moving along once all the Bye Rounds concluded in RD17. Tinkered with the way I approached betting and it really paid dividends in the back-end of the season. Our MPP for the season was Shaun Mannagh, where we really capitalised on his midfield run in those last few weeks 🐐. His efforts also made a strong contribution to making Geelong our Most Profitable Team throughout the season as well, earning +23u from the Cats, with some help from the likes of Jack Henry and Blicavs where we banged on massive goal prices for each of them a couple times 🐱 🔥 And finally to close, RD21 ended up being the most profitable RD for the season. We cashed out a handful of value that week, with some Goalscorers such as Blics ($3.9), Harvey Johnston ($4) and Billy Dowling ($4) all finding the big sticks for us, whilst others like Jarman Impey and Marcus Herbert racked up the pill from HB and cashed their 30+ props for us ($3.08/$5.2 respectively). 🐷 💰 I’ll leave the spreadsheet link in my Twitter bio for the next few weeks if anyone wants to see it. Has every bet tracked alongside a bunch of notes scattered there throughout the season. Thanks to everyone for tailing and showing love to the page for yet another season! Few weeks until NBA tips off, see y’all there! ❤️ 🪙

Recap: 1u - Dame ❌ 1.1u - Hayes ❌ 1u - Boozer✅ 1u - Sengun✅ 0.25u - Sengun 10+ ASTS❌ 1u - SGA✅ (+1.03u) Season: -4.3u📈ROI: -8.4%📊 From what started as a dreadful way to wake up starting 0-2, got reeled back in with the later games, which would've been topped off if Sengun got one more dime. Plays should be a bit more tidier as of tomorrow. The weekend I got a bit more time to look at stuff in the morning whilst weekdays get busier.

1u/0.25u - Alperen Sengun 7+/10+ ASTS ($2.6/$9) 1u - SGA u35.5 PA ($1.87) A bit over the shop today in terms of when plays are coming out and whatnot. Will use this post to recap the rest of the plays when its all said and done. Got two more plays for the closing game of the slate. No FVV or Sheppard off the bench, Sengun's numbers sky rocket with them off the court. With just FVV off the court this season, Sengun's numbers average out to 9.5ASTS per36, holding a 39AST% in a 63MIN sample this season. This boosts u even higher when both of those guards are off the court. With OKC down a lot of their key players, especially those that mold their defensive identity, I find them to be very exposed on that end. With SGA, fully expecting HOU to make his life difficult on the offensive end. Was the case last season in their Jan16th matchup vs OKC. Just 24PA from 26USG% (season avg. 31.9%), shooting 6-11 from the field. Although OKC blew them out, it was more of HOU's lackluster shooting that blew the game away in that one. Should be mentioned that Sengun also had 5ASTS from 17 chances in that outing as well. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING EITHER OF THESE PLAYS!

1u - Cameron Boozer o30.5 PRA ($1.91 SB) Can flip to his o24.5PR as an alternative Ty Jerome is on the injury still listed as questionable, the same back concern he had prior to their game vs POR. Wouldn't surprise me if he were late out in this one but love this spot for Boozer regardless. Matched up earlier vs this SAC team on OCT26th and finished with 29PRA, but that included an abysmal 5-21FGA shooting display from Boozer. Like for him to get his get-back against this poor SAC team. We've seen how involved he is already in this Grizzlies offense, leads the team in front court touches, rebounds per game and second highest USG%. As it stands right now, Boozer averages 30.7PRA per30, but with Jerome off the court, that bumps up to 33.9PRA per30. Marking it down to per30 instead of 36 as I think that's a better representation on where his minutes will be today, chance of blowout so I think a floor of 28MINS sounds realistic. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING THIS PLAY!

❌2ASTS here. Skimmed through the first 3 quarters, 6 potentials through about 17MINS. Coach Hardy played Markkanen at the 5 spot more which ate into Hayes' minutes. Great to see DP notch 36MINS in this one despite a blowout! Jaxson Hayes ASTS Ladder ❌❌❌

❌🪝Blowout doesn't help but still could've cleared this mark, 22PTS 6-17 shooting from the field in 26MINS. Falls short one. Damian Lillard o22.5 PTS❌🪝

1u - Damian Lillard o22.5PTS ($1.83 PB) Also fine with 23.5PTS Biggest factor is Ja Morant being out for the next couple weeks. Although a small sample, Dame averages 29.4PTS per36 with Ja off the court (49MIN sample). Great scoring profile matchup here vs UTA. Worst ranked side guarding PnR Ball-Handlers (31% of Dame's PTS generated), along with a bottom side defense at guarding shots ATB (68% of his points). Both Morant and Avdija lead POR in PnR Ball-handling possessions, with Lillard trailing slightly, expect Lillard's usage in this area in particular to increase. In addition, we've already seen a few high-sage guards absolutely cook up against this Jazz side to start the season: Ty Jerome with a 45-piece, Reaves with 29 and Doncic with a massive 52 PTS in the same game. Hoping that Holiday gets the starting nod over Scoot, feel as though he can play off the ball far better and will compliment Lillard more. Regardless, think Lillard has a killer matchup here and has a chance to go large. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING THIS PLAY!

🪜0.75u - Jaxson Hayes 3+ ASTS ($3 B365) 🪜0.25u - Hayes 4+ ASTS ($7.5 SB) 🪜0.1u - Hayes 5+ ASTS ($10.5 B365) Apologies to my Aus family for such a late post. Hoping some can get on this one. No Nurk, no JJJ, Hayes slipped right into that starting C role and did a more than admirable job for what we're looking for in this one vs POR. In their last game vs SAS, Hayes notched 37MINS (inc. OT), 4ASTS from 12 chances alongside with 38 front court touches. A lot of these chances were created via handoff, which makes plenty of sense for a couple reason: UTA for the season are ending the 2nd most offensive possessions through handoff actions, whilst the Spurs allow the most handoff actions. Very similar matchup presents itself here vs POR, who allow the 3rd most possessions ending in a handoff. With the likes of Clingan and Rob Will sitting in a deep drop, it allows for shot-creators coming off these handoffs to find some great pull-up opportunities, to which POR allow the 3rd highest FREQ% to opposing Pull-Ups. All of George, Peterson and Ace Bailey have shown the ability to score from these scenarios. If we get even half the amount of opportunities Hayes created LG vs SAS here today vs POR, I love our chances here. Has been an angle we've taken advantage of already this season and previously last season, let's replicate it once more. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING THIS LADDER!

Recap: 1u - Richardson ❌ 1u - Ausar✅ 1u - Flagg✅ 1u - Rui❌ 1u - Book✅ 1u - Thybulle❌ 1u - KD❌ (-0.82u) Season: -5.33u📉ROI: -11.7%📊 Spewing I took Thybulle's 2+ 3PM instead of o6.5PTS. Kerr mentioned post game after their first matchup that they would hammer down on the lob threat of Kessler more and force weak-side kickouts. Unfortunate on Rui hook as well with a quick run of the Wolves pulling him back out for the rest of the game. Everything else seemed well warranted, Jase got the minutes but volume no where to be seen. Wins won comfortably besides that last minute in the DEN-PHX game. Obviously wish results were a bit better but I do expect things to turn sooner than later.

❌Didn't expect HOU to run so much with Capela or Tshiebwe off the bench. Thought more Smith Jr at the 5 was the move. Hindered both opportunities. Kevin Durant o9.5RA❌

1u - Kevin Durant o9.5 RA ($1.96 SB) Love the on/off data presented so far in correlation to Sengun who won't be playing today. 12.8RA per 36 with Sengun off the court (62MIN sample), in contrast to an 8.7RA per 36 with him on the court (112MIN). Will get matched up with PJ on the defensive end so opportunities for plenty of weak side rebounds, believe that he should see some positive regression sooner or later with his ASTS numbers, just 3.6APG from 8.4 potential chances, including a 4ASTS LG with no Sengun from 12 potential chances. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING THIS PLAY!

Official NBA Betting Card: 31st Oct, 2026 Season: -4.51u📈 ROI: -11.6%📊 1u - Jase Richardson o10.5 PA ($2.05) 1u - Ausar Thompson 5+ ASTS ($2.45) 1u - Cooper Flagg o35.5 PRA ($1.86) 1u - Rui Hachmura 6+ REBS ($2.4) 1u - Devin Booker u23.5 PTS ($1.87) 1u - Matisse Thybulle 2+ 3PM ($2.3) Show some ❤️if you’re following any of these plays! Good morning and Happy Halloween to those who dabble in it in Aus! Handful of plays here today, and keeping an eye on a couple more. If you want any more insight on some of these props just flick a comment below. Hard to have writeups in the morning for every play sometimes so yeah.

Recap: 1u - Sabonis ❌ 1u - Jerome❌ 1u - Bey❌ (-3u) Season: -4.51u📉ROI: -11.6%📊 Man this stings. Chalking Jerome up as well, off-night and the late IR of him being questionable because of a back injury doesn't help the case. Felt like every time Sabonis did get a pass on the roll, he got stripped as he was gathering for a layup. Bey simply not a great read. Still confident this can turnaround. This time last year during the NBA season we were down -5.92u in October, before turning that around to +30.99u at the end of November. These stretches can happen, onto the next.

❌Not the read today. Pels just seemed the bigger team and Saddiq had matchups to bully inside a lot instead of settling from outside. 1-2 from deep.

1u - Saddiq Bey o1.5 3PM ($1.91 SB) Late one here. Assuming price ballooned back out because he's not starting but shouldn't matter in this case. Still averaging close to 25MPG off the bench and should repeat today with the couple out they have in the rotation. Coming up SAC who overall are just terrible defensively, 29th DRTG, but more importantly here a bottom 3 team defending Spot-Up shooters. Happy to play at the price. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING THIS PLAY!

Ty Jerome for 25+ PTS at that price not 30!

Official NBA Betting Card: 30th Oct, 2026 Season: -1.51u📈 ROI: -4.2%📊 1u - Domantas Sabonis o32.5 PR ($1.91) 1u - Ty Jerome o24.5 PTS ($2.02) Show some ❤️if you’re following any of these plays! Alrighty time to bounceback again! A few lines got bumped overnight but still love these ones despite the tick in line. Both got great matchup to dominate. Sabonis against a NOP side with a bottom 5 paint defense and allowing the most PTS to Centers this season, sign me up. The POR matchup for Jerome is perfectly catered for him. Allowing the most possessions that end with the PnR Ball-Handler (60% of Jerome's pts) alongside most PTS allowed in the paint (non RA, 40% of his PTS), he should have ample opportunity today. Might have one more in store if his line drops so keep an eye out!

Recap: 1.25u - Wagner❌ 1u - Eason ✅ 1u - Reaves❌ 1.5u - DP❌ (-2.88u) Season: -1.51u📉ROI: -4.2%📊 Will have to swallow this one. Might have to cool it a bit with all the plus money plays as it feels like there's been several times already where x player has hit their line but missed on the added value in the past week. If I'd played it safer, that +/- would be looking a tad different. Toronto's great shooting overall could be reasoned for Wagner missing, whilst Clippers simply played great defense on Reaves, forcing the ball out of his hands which resulted in him also coughing the ball up 8 times. Might very well be a fade angle when targeting high usage guards. Eason was an easy 2Q cash and DP was so heartbreaking, especially his last 3PA that touched every part of the rim before falling out, then to not see the court for the rest of the game. Still plenty of season left. I got y'all!

❌Sick to my stomach with this one. Plays the least mins so far in his rookie campaign (26mins), even without the star power of a couple players, and doesn't close the game. 18PTS from 4-13 shooting as well with 3ASTS. Darryn Peterson 20+PTS/5+ASTS ❌❌

0.75u - Darryn Peterson 20+PTS ($4.1) 0.75u - Darryn Peterson 5+ ASTS ($4.75) Both available at Bet365 Just wanted to wait on the Markkanen news before hopping onto this. Going to see a massive bump in his usage with no Markkanen and JJJ and we saw a glimpse of that in their LG vs MEM in the second half when those two mentioned didn't play at all. 33USG% and 25AST% in that second half, scoring 8PTS (3-12FGA) and 2 ASTS. Expecting fairly similar volume, as the pie will be shared by George, Ace and Peterson in that lineup. From a matchup perspective, seems beneficial for Peterson's shot profile, with SAS allowing the 2nd highest FREQ% for pull-up jumpers, equates to 38% of Peterson's shots in general. Blowout could be imminent but I've got insanely high hopes that Peterson will see the ball in his hands a lot in this one. ❤️IF YOU'RE TAILING THIS PLAY!

Official NBA Betting Card: 29th Oct, 2026 Season: +1.27u📈 ROI: +4.4%📊 1u/0.25u - Franz Wagner 8+/10+REBS ($2.9/$7.25) 1u - Tari Eason o6.5 REBS ($1.87) 1u - Austin Reaves 30+ PTS ($2.1) Show some ❤️if you’re following any of these plays! Super late once again so apologies. Obviously nothing for the first set of games, but do stay posted within the next hour or so. Waiting for lineups before attacking a couple plays.