I model sports props… but baseball’s my favorite | Owner @AMPAnalytics_ | https://teapawt.org/t.co/7czOwLz7eb
Joined March 2023
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KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Can’t control the outcomes but we can control getting good prices. All of these posted in @AMPAnalytics_ discord today
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Why does everything have to be so sweaty lol. Nice little middle too 👀
discord.com/invite/ctqvdVQRQ…
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
An example of FD one way lines robbing the user
Since FD doesn't offer an under, they aren't forced to be competitive on this price. The theoretical vig can be anywhere from 5% to 50% (50% vig on -230 gets us a +141 fair value)
Fanduel knows most don't line shop, they hope you don't. If you throw this into a parlay with a +100 leg, your parlay would be +187 on FD and +388 on DK
Don't get robbed blind, invest in an odds screen
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
+735 SGP ✅ from @Dfsprodigy23
$225 ➡️ $1,878
AMPanalyticsarena.com
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Also just for some additional context
They’ve really made an effort this past year to appeal to the losing crowd. It’s what they’re supposed to do, they’re in business to make money that’s fine
But all of these things come at a cost
I have been running some specific scans of fanatics this season on ATTD props
Week 4 NFL the median EV of a touchdown scorer was -6%, not terrible and a lot of good plays
This past week the median EV was -13%
Excluding trends, stats etc, a +650 touchdown scorer in week 4 is now +600
That’s just one market but it’s the most bet on market for the NFL. imagine how some of their other ones are.
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Good morning everyone. In honor of the Buffalo Bills opportunity today to go 5-1 I’m gonna show you all some of my favorite tush pushes
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Whole team cooked last night 🔥 🔥
+8888 ✅ from @Dfsprodigy23
+3320 ✅ from @IIPatll
+3100 ✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
+2240✅ from @KSplitAnalytics
AMPanalyticsarena.com
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Player props heading in the wrong direction now.
Books don’t mind banning unders bc that’s another way to limit sharp bettors under the rouse of integrity.
Now they can post a player who’s prop fair is 20.5, but make it 24.5 bc they are never taking under action it. Just let the fish 🎣 bet it. That might not be what this is particularly but it’s where we’re headed.
The NBA and prominent sportsbooks have agreed to ban multiple types of bets, per me and @DavidPurdum, such as:
- Parlay bets involving the under on the same player's statistics
- "First of" market; examples: winner of opening tip, an individual's specific shot, rebound, assist, steal
- Under bets on players expected to play less than 12 minutes a game
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
An under 1.5, over 2.5, goals lotto, goalie saves… sniping everything today
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
1st Plate Appearance Ks from @KSplitAnalytics
.2u on parlay
.5u on each straight
1.7u total risk
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Good morning Jose Ramirez plays baseball today
#StandGuard
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Couple more bad lines the bot identified based off of the model’s fair values
Bouchard u3.5 20.29% EV
Carlson u2.5 SOG 7.54% EV
Suter ATGS SOG 5.88% EV
Laughton u1.5 SOG 4.17% EV
Assuming these hold to the CLV, regardless of the outcome, these are good bets
Some great value identified by the discord bot that reads the SOG model
-145 moved to -165
-135 moved to -160
Straights can be boring, but imperative to being a profitable long term bettor
discord.gg/fF8UffKDA
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
Some great value identified by the discord bot that reads the SOG model
-145 moved to -165
-135 moved to -160
Straights can be boring, but imperative to being a profitable long term bettor
discord.gg/fF8UffKDA
KSplit | Sports Modeling retweeted
10/13/26 SOG Fair Values
Full board for free @ AMPanalyticsarena.com
