@Katapult_Invest

Sharing our view on financial markets with: short impressions/trading ideas/longer analyses and running our own fund

 België
katapultinvest.substack.com/
Joined February 2021
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End of March 2025 - Update on portfolio returns +18% in absolute return +20% when measured versus MSCI World $BABA is/was main driver of portfolio gains Luckily we had some downside protection with $IONQ, $RGTI, $TSLA, $ARM, $AAIO shorts
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Geert Noels
@GeertNoelsOct 6
Naar verhouding telt België zo'n 200.000 ambtenaren meer dan Nederland, terwijl er met de Nederlandse werkzaamheidsgraad zo'n 750.000 mensen meer aan de slag zouden zijn, vrijwel allemaal in de private sector. Tevens zijn er 150.000 langdurig zieken meer dan in NL, 300.000 vergeleken met Duitsland. Dat oplossen, lost de begroting op.
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Geert Noels
@GeertNoelsAug 3
Het beste #groeiplan voor België is een slankere overheid. Alle andere plannen zijn compensaties door de overheid aan een bevoordeelde groep, betaald door een steeds kleiner wordende groep zonder privileges maar met volle globale concurrentie. Dat is niet houdbaar.
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Ivan Van de Cloot
@IvanVandeClootMar 16
Minister Gennez baseerde zich voor de loonkloof op cijfers van het "instituut voor gelijkheid van man en vrouw". Personeelsaantal van het agentschap is 80. Met Stichting Merito brachten we de Vlaamse al in kaart. Vanaf nu beginnen we ook aan federale: stichting-merito.be/subsidie…
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$W Wayfair Q4'25 results 1) High SBC, almost 10x its operating income 2) Debt extinguishment has nothing to do with operation activities Operating cashflow still negative Has some renewal capex (more retail stores, more capex) => So overleveraged debt situation remains
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Underlying chart shows $BTC (red) versus $MARA (candles). Although MARA as a BTC miner should profit from the price increase (almost all time high), the amount of new shares is diluting shareholders and pushing MARA's stock price down We are short MARA
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Underlying chart shows $BTC (red) versus $MARA (candles). Although MARA as a BTC miner should profit from the price increase (almost all time high), the amount of new shares is diluting shareholders and pushing MARA's stock price down We are short MARA
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We got what we asked for. $BABA and $MELE.BR up nicely today 🙏 Tarrifs lower, but 30% doesn't mean they're gone. Added shorts on $W and $RUN today. Shorts are squeezed, but these poorly run companies still need to import large goods from China 🩸 xitter.cf/Katapult_Invest/status…
Katapult Invest@Katapult_Invest9 May 2025
Replying to @Katapult_Invest
Now all we need is good US - China trade talks and $BABA is up. Or everybody realising these tarrifs don't matter. Trade is like water. You can cover one hole, but it will find other ways (countries) to flow into the US
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We had some nice boosts last weeks $DIS great Q1 results, on track to becoming Nr 2 in streaming world $COFB take-over bid, mgmt hinting on a 2nd higher bid? $BAMNB climbing higher on EU defense spending
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Now all we need is good US - China trade talks and $BABA is up. Or everybody realising these tarrifs don't matter. Trade is like water. You can cover one hole, but it will find other ways (countries) to flow into the US
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Good news for $CBOX.L ? Good sales up +5% in UK
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Short $MARA
Evanss6
@Evan_ss630 Jan 2025
Third time’s a charm
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Zoek de fout Ursula von der Leyen en haar Commissie beloven tijdens de eerste 100 dagen van hun mandaat een rist wetgeving op tafel te leggen die Europa moet toelaten het hoofd boven water te houden Wetgeving op tafel leggen, terwijl er net weg moet tijd.be/politiek-economie/eu…
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I think we can all agree that $ARM has a lot of upside with 3B revenue and a market cap of 178B. It's not going to hurt anybody.
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Global Atomic filed its 2024 Feasibility Study (“FS”) confirming Dasa has a mine plan of 23.75 years (2026-2049), a 50% reserve increase to 73Mlb and a 55% production increase to 68.1Mlb. Using a $75/lb #uranium price, the FS shows a US$917M NPV8, a 57% IRR & a 2.2 year payback.
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Update on Wayfair $W Q4 financials The company still exhibits elements we want to avoid: 🚩Shares outstanding growing 🚩Operational cashflow negative Yes, margin is expanding But sales are not growing (strongly) and Net Debt not decreasing. Only option is to bring more shares to market ...
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🚨TRADE ALERT🚨 Closed our $RUN position for $0.10 per contract Thats a nice 97% gain captured already💸 Will not wait out the remainder of the contracts till May '24 Another win in the books🎯
Katapult Invest@Katapult_Invest18 Dec 2023
🚨TRADE ALERT🚨 With sentiment at #greed, #VIX at lows and #rates dropped fast and substantially (while employment rates not increasing and potential for inflation burst due to #Suez canal blocked) -> sensible to increase our #shorts Sold $RUN calls for $3.50 premium on $20 strike with 18 MAY expiry
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Update on $DIS after MS media conference (we remain long 🚀, free cashflow almost restored) -Streaming profitable by Q4 -Trending above financial guidelines given from last earnings call - Dividend increased as expected, buybacks announced - refocus on films, killing bad (woke?) projects - invest in parks. Mainly expanding capacity. Don't picture Disneyland. Picture cruises, Frozen city, Star Wars Land, ... Matches with their IP, helps to keep movies alive and create a franchise
Katapult Invest@Katapult_Invest5 Aug 2023
Started position in $DIS (selling $90 put for 20 OCT) Some analysis: - Trimming expenses (e.g. 7.000 FTE) - Streaming needs to be profitable (price increase, less production costs) - Parks could face some headwind (consumer spending?) - Selling assets? (e.g. Hulu/ESPN)
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🚨 TRADE ALERT 🚨 Not our finest hour, closed just now at $2.50 meaning we have a 140% loss. Luckily not the largest position but never fun.
Katapult Invest@Katapult_Invest13 Dec 2023
🚨 TRADE ALERT 🚨 Sold $VTNR puts with expiry 19 April and strike price 4, and received $1.04 per contract We believe the market is too negative on this company which has just restructured its debts. Follow @calvinfroedge for more info and analysis on the company
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