Co-Founder @Delphi_Digital Founding Partner @Delphi_Ventures Sucker for Fed pivots, wide fairways, and dual axis charts.
Joined August 2017
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The crypto market is highly cyclical.
Crypto market cycles are also remarkably consistent.
But their consistency isn’t just by coincidence.
They’re predictable.
If we're right, this has huge implications for the crypto market going forward.
Time to air out some charts... 👇
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Is Anthropic still going to IPO?
"I think Anthropic will still go public. I think it could still go up in price. But that doesn't prove that this is a good business."
"Now that pretty much everyone has recognized this, I think everyone is trading now on - how big is the bailout gonna be?"
"So that's the perfect time for crypto. The bigger the Ai bubble grows, the bigger the bailout will be, the higher Bitcoin goes."
"We are wasting money, and BTC is there to show us that we're wasting money."
@CryptoHayes
We recorded this yday before today's market carnage...
Which makes it even more relevant given we talked about this potential scenario playing out
New Hivemind just dropped ⬇️
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss what’s behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trump’s Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Kevin breaks down what’s driving the AI selloff.
“The equity market has now become very top-heavy when it comes to AI or AI-adjacent revenue and earnings drivers. When you look at what’s happened with big tech earnings this quarter, a lot of these stocks are getting crushed.”
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss what’s behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trump’s Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Kevin Kelly retweeted
A new episode of Hivemind is live!
This week the team is joined by @0xOmnia to discuss what’s behind the AI selloff, the uncertain future of self custody, why Hyperliquid needs an L2, and more.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:39 The Midterm Cycle That Always Repeats
03:31 Why Privacy Helps Security
05:44 Does Gridlock Kill the AI Trade?
15:38 The Biggest Hedge Fund Deleveraging in Years
19:12 Is the Selloff Overdone?
22:47 Will Democrats Come for Trump’s Crypto?
25:39 Prediction Markets Turn on JD Vance
32:17 How Binance Got Hacked
36:08 Is Self Custody Dead?
41:24 Why Hyperliquid Needs an L2
49:57 What Launches on Day One
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Still remember one of our first @Delphi_Digital reports: a deep dive on DeFi.
We got nerd sniped by @Uniswap and first covered it when it had <$10m in liquidity.
Today, it has over $3B.
Insane to see its growth, and a good reminder of how far our industry has come.
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Who will dominate the AI compute market?
Kevin: “It’s going to shift from data centers and building and the ability to potentially have future compute to a premium on actual installed working compute that you can monetize and generate revenue off of today.
And I just think SpaceX and Elon are going to clean up this market in the next 12 months.”
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week Hypercall founder @trajan0x joins the team to discuss what the Anthropic IPO means for markets, how cyberattacks are exposing the internet’s weak points, and whether onchain options can finally break out.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Patience Is a Position
03:49 Chop Until the Midterms
09:33 Can Efficiency Crush the Neoclouds?
13:10 What if Compute Gets 10x Cheaper?
17:09 Is the Internet Broken?
23:20 Could You Cash Out Satoshi’s Coins?
27:16 Is Quantum Theft Really Consensus?
35:31 What Led Synapse to Options?
42:54 What Onchain Options Do Better
46:41 Who Wins Options Distribution?
51:31 Credit Is the Next Frontier
55:09 Would You Buy the Anthropic IPO?
57:36 The Biggest Liquidity Drain in History?
58:35 Why Early Stage Venture Looks Best
1:03:22 Elon Comes for the Neoclouds
1:07:32 SpaceX and the Kessler Syndrome
1:08:53 What Are You Underexposed To?
Kevin Kelly retweeted
New Delphi Podcast with Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonTGB), co-founder of Cyclops and The Giving Block
He sold The Giving Block to Shift4 a year after raising. Now he's building stablecoin rails for payments companies
Shift4 is a customer and an investor. Out of stealth in March, Series A in July, more than 10 customers this year when they hoped for 3
His take: most of the world's 200 currencies won't make it. Fewer than 25 left in five to ten years
00:00 Intro
04:39 The Door-to-Door eBay Hustle
15:59 The $50M Anonymous Donation
17:41 Beating Coinbase by Going Narrow
19:55 Sold to Shift4 a Year Later
25:23 From Shift4 to NASA
27:31 Lessons From Jared
29:33 Hiring to Scare People Away
31:08 Why Start Cyclops
36:22 A Ticket to Space in Stablecoins
37:54 Who Stablecoins Cut Out
40:15 Agents Need New Checkouts
43:04 200 Currencies Down to 25
46:12 Seed to Series A in a Year
49:38 Swinging for a $10B Exit
Full episode
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Don't let another exchange hack shake you out of crypto as we enter the biggest trend we've ever seen: tradfi coming onchain.
My conversation with @johnjdagostino covers what he sees from the largest institutional investors, inside tokenized stocks, Hyperliquid & Coinbase, the Middle East's role, Brian Armstrong's big bet, regulatory update, and more...
John's story is so fascinating that Ben Mezrich made him the main character in one of his books. Previous works became best-selling movies The Social Network & Dumb Money.
Close the charts, let the dust settle, and enjoy.
00:00 Intro
00:35 What Coinbase Sees That You Don't
03:32 Why Crypto Moving to Abu Dhabi
05:27 Money Shift in Middle East
09:26 How Nations Are Buying Bitcoin
10:52 Trip That Changed Everything
12:15 The Story Behind Rigged
13:18 Onchain Finance
18:09 Real World Assets
19:23 Tokenized Stock Potential
21:52 Sponsored by Kraken
23:04 Wall Street Adoption
25:25 Biggest Crypto Fund
29:36 Brian Armstrong's Big Bet
31:29 When SEC Cut Off Coinbase
35:06 Crypto Bears
37:10 Regulation
39:34 Price Impact
40:50 The Rising Tide
43:56 Future of Investing
45:09 What Meme Coins Proved
47:48 Hyperliquid vs. Coinbase
49:36 Where We Go Next
Kevin Kelly retweeted
How do TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid benefit each other?
Ryan Watkins: “They’re actually benefiting from the distribution that Hyperliquid has.
The work they’ve done is incredible. It’s a symbiotic relationship where the economics are quite clear.
They’re splitting the fees on HIP-3. That’s all you need to know.”
New Hivemind just dropped 🚨
Market takes, Anthropic S-1, @elonmusk's neocloud shade, compute markets, sizing up cyber threats, and catalysts for onchain options to finally breakout
Lot to unpack here ⬇️
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week Hypercall founder @trajan0x joins the team to discuss what the Anthropic IPO means for markets, how cyberattacks are exposing the internet’s weak points, and whether onchain options can finally break out.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Patience Is a Position
03:49 Chop Until the Midterms
09:33 Can Efficiency Crush the Neoclouds?
13:10 What if Compute Gets 10x Cheaper?
17:09 Is the Internet Broken?
23:20 Could You Cash Out Satoshi’s Coins?
27:16 Is Quantum Theft Really Consensus?
35:31 What Led Synapse to Options?
42:54 What Onchain Options Do Better
46:41 Who Wins Options Distribution?
51:31 Credit Is the Next Frontier
55:09 Would You Buy the Anthropic IPO?
57:36 The Biggest Liquidity Drain in History?
58:35 Why Early Stage Venture Looks Best
1:03:22 Elon Comes for the Neoclouds
1:07:32 SpaceX and the Kessler Syndrome
1:08:53 What Are You Underexposed To?
Kevin Kelly retweeted
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week Hypercall founder @trajan0x joins the team to discuss what the Anthropic IPO means for markets, how cyberattacks are exposing the internet’s weak points, and whether onchain options can finally break out.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:45 Patience Is a Position
03:49 Chop Until the Midterms
09:33 Can Efficiency Crush the Neoclouds?
13:10 What if Compute Gets 10x Cheaper?
17:09 Is the Internet Broken?
23:20 Could You Cash Out Satoshi’s Coins?
27:16 Is Quantum Theft Really Consensus?
35:31 What Led Synapse to Options?
42:54 What Onchain Options Do Better
46:41 Who Wins Options Distribution?
51:31 Credit Is the Next Frontier
55:09 Would You Buy the Anthropic IPO?
57:36 The Biggest Liquidity Drain in History?
58:35 Why Early Stage Venture Looks Best
1:03:22 Elon Comes for the Neoclouds
1:07:32 SpaceX and the Kessler Syndrome
1:08:53 What Are You Underexposed To?
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Our new report “The AI Boom Has a Power Problem” is live!
Power has become a harder constraint on AI than chips because it takes years to build, leaving pricing power with anyone who can deliver electricity faster than the grid.
Read the report here.
delphi.link/Power
Timing of this convo couldn’t be better with the ICE/Hype news this morn
@RyanWatkins_ goes deep on the $HYPE thesis, bull case, and how he sees this all playing out
This isn’t coincidence, it was predestined
Why can’t Wall Street exchanges just build their own Hyperliquid?
@RyanWatkins_: “They would need to re-architect their entire exchange stack because it’s built on the assumption that you needed to segment out all these different layers like brokerage and clearing and settlement and custody.
And here we kind of built these exchanges that assume this is all in one single integrated stack.
And you need that because how else are you going to be able to hold the margin on the exchange and liquidate it at a fraction of a second when you need to liquidate a position?
If this guy was that good, he would not be trying to do this at CME. He’d be at Jeff.”
Kevin Kelly retweeted
Why can’t Wall Street exchanges just build their own Hyperliquid?
@RyanWatkins_: “They would need to re-architect their entire exchange stack because it’s built on the assumption that you needed to segment out all these different layers like brokerage and clearing and settlement and custody.
And here we kind of built these exchanges that assume this is all in one single integrated stack.
And you need that because how else are you going to be able to hold the margin on the exchange and liquidate it at a fraction of a second when you need to liquidate a position?
If this guy was that good, he would not be trying to do this at CME. He’d be at Jeff.”
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Kevin Kelly retweeted
underappreciated aspect of the quantum risk for Bitcoin/crypto is that since the US & China both don't want to lose the ai or quantum race where Bitcoin is inextricably linked as the ultimate bounty...
the manhatten project which is already underway will likely lead to a more secure system here faster than anywhere else
not only am i not worried about the crypto community's ability to handle the upcoming ai/quantum threat, i will venture to say that in the next 2 yrs the world will realize crypto is far better prepared for it than the rest of the internet and finance. we've had a trillion dollar *irreversible* honey pot for a decade, producing a far more battletested system and adversarial security culture than pretty much anywhere else on earth.
Kevin Kelly retweeted
No equity company sits above $GRASS. The token is the asset.
@0xdrej on how Grass is structured and why it matters for holders
The Grass Foundation is ownerless, faces every customer and owns all the IP. Wynd Labs is a service provider to it, approved by directors with no stake in Wynd, and the Wynd team are token holders themselves
Grass also owns its infrastructure, where most web access startups rent it. Every dollar reinvested makes the network better instead of paying vendors more
They’ve been shipping products one at a time, so I asked what he’d do with a war chest. His answer was to run every initiative at once
“Our mission for Grass is for Grass to become the way in which AI accesses information”
Kevin Kelly retweeted
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode
Kevin Kelly retweeted
The @RyanWatkins_ episode is now live covering hyperliquid:native, perps coming to Wall street, conviction and sizing up, Solana & Pump social trading, and finding the next secular winners in crypto.
Watch on YT: youtu.be/oQQErgSvjnc?is=eTte…