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NFL Sunday Week 6 🏈
✅ Michael Mayer o27.5 Rec Yds (-115)
✅ Jake Ferguson u25.5 Rec Yds (-115)
🏥❌ Dalton Kincaid o47.5 Rec Yds
Light week and nearly had the sweep. Kincaid missing some game time due to injury really killed us.
Will be posting more NFL plays and analysis on here more often soon ❤️
Had one other play for TNF posted in the Discord
George Pickens o61.5 Rec Yards ✅
Fingers crossed we can somehow see Cade Otton get one more catch for 3+ yards 😩
🏈 Cade Otton o27.5 Rec Yards (-125) is a play I love for Thursday Night Football.
⬇️
Otton comes into TNF going over this line in 3 straight games. The Bucs are sitting at 0-4 and Baker Mayfield remains OUT as Jalon Daniels remains TBs starter.
Last week, Otton had 4 receptions for 37 yards (6 targets) in Daniels first start. This lead the team with a 22% target share on a solid 72% route share. Daniels, being inexperienced, continued to look for Otton on the checkdown, especially under pressure.
High level, this doesn’t look great as only one tight end has gone over this line against DAL so far this season (Isaiah Likely), but given Dallas has mainly run Cover 3 and Cover 4 to start the year (~60% of the time), this is great setup for Otton who’s seeing a 16% target share against these two coverages across Tampa’s first 4 games.
We got a nice high total in this game and Tampa comes in as 2-score underdogs. I’d like to think we see them rely heavily on the pass tonight and Otton should be involved in that game plan quite a bit. 28 yards feels shallow given he probably sees roughly 5-6+ targets yet again.
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🏈 Cade Otton o27.5 Rec Yards (-125) is a play I love for Thursday Night Football.
⬇️
Otton comes into TNF going over this line in 3 straight games. The Bucs are sitting at 0-4 and Baker Mayfield remains OUT as Jalon Daniels remains TBs starter.
Last week, Otton had 4 receptions for 37 yards (6 targets) in Daniels first start. This lead the team with a 22% target share on a solid 72% route share. Daniels, being inexperienced, continued to look for Otton on the checkdown, especially under pressure.
High level, this doesn’t look great as only one tight end has gone over this line against DAL so far this season (Isaiah Likely), but given Dallas has mainly run Cover 3 and Cover 4 to start the year (~60% of the time), this is great setup for Otton who’s seeing a 16% target share against these two coverages across Tampa’s first 4 games.
We got a nice high total in this game and Tampa comes in as 2-score underdogs. I’d like to think we see them rely heavily on the pass tonight and Otton should be involved in that game plan quite a bit. 28 yards feels shallow given he probably sees roughly 5-6+ targets yet again.
📊 Graph Powered by Props.Cash
Use code KYLE25 for 25% off your first month at Props.Cash
What a f**cking roller coaster.
Xavier Hutchinson o2.5 Rec ✅
1st half banggggg
0-3 on the first three targets. Still gets fed early. Now let’s climb 🪜
Question for the fellas… at what point is it acceptable to crash out and ruin a beautiful Sunday for me and family because of fantasy football?
Because I feel like I’m getting close
Kyle retweeted
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Thanks for being with us along the way. Let’s have a great season!!
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Officially 31 years young today 🎈
Haven’t been as active on here lately as I used to be as life and other priorities have taken over, but I appreciate everyone who still reaches out and has supported over the last few years.
We really built a great community of degenerate gamblers.
Be back soon 👌 - UncJustBets
The Jobe implodes 😭
HAMMER this OVER Tonight ‼️
Jackson Jobe o4.5 Ks
(-110) #DNMW vs #WhiteSox
Hit ❤️ if you want more K Projections!
Going to take a stab here at Jobe against this strikeout heavy White Sox team.
Jobe is making his 2nd start / appearance this season, so data is limited, but seeing how he went 71 pitches in his first start (5 IP) I have good confidence about his workload today. He should be up to at least 85-90 pitches if all goes well.
He leveraged his four seam fastball on 48% of his pitches in his first start, which was great to see. Velo looked INSANE (upwards of 100 MPH with +2400 spin) and had success on the put away with it too.
The last starting RHP that had that much OOF on their fastball against CWS was Cam Schlittler, who finished with 8 Ks (5 off the high velo fastball alone)
This is where CWS struggle - they have highest whiff rate and 3rd highest K rate against RHP 4-seamers over the last 30 days.
On top of this, they are #1 in the MLB in 2-strike plate appearance % over the last two weeks.
Jobe finished his last start with 9 whiffs and 9 two-strike plate appearances. With a heftier workload and a better matchup, we should see those numbers tick up.
Jobe, when asked about pitching today against CWS said: “I love it, I’m locked in. It’s a divisional matchup obviously. It should be fun. I’m ready to go!”
5 Ks for Jobe should be light work tonight.
HAMMER this OVER Tonight ‼️
Jackson Jobe o4.5 Ks
(-110) #DNMW vs #WhiteSox
Hit ❤️ if you want more K Projections!
Going to take a stab here at Jobe against this strikeout heavy White Sox team.
Jobe is making his 2nd start / appearance this season, so data is limited, but seeing how he went 71 pitches in his first start (5 IP) I have good confidence about his workload today. He should be up to at least 85-90 pitches if all goes well.
He leveraged his four seam fastball on 48% of his pitches in his first start, which was great to see. Velo looked INSANE (upwards of 100 MPH with +2400 spin) and had success on the put away with it too.
The last starting RHP that had that much OOF on their fastball against CWS was Cam Schlittler, who finished with 8 Ks (5 off the high velo fastball alone)
This is where CWS struggle - they have highest whiff rate and 3rd highest K rate against RHP 4-seamers over the last 30 days.
On top of this, they are #1 in the MLB in 2-strike plate appearance % over the last two weeks.
Jobe finished his last start with 9 whiffs and 9 two-strike plate appearances. With a heftier workload and a better matchup, we should see those numbers tick up.
Jobe, when asked about pitching today against CWS said: “I love it, I’m locked in. It’s a divisional matchup obviously. It should be fun. I’m ready to go!”
5 Ks for Jobe should be light work tonight.
